GaWx Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 12z Canadian a step in the wrong direction -- looks like its trending toward the Ukie -- weaker low, headed out to sea. Much lighter QPF than last night's run. Actually, the prospects for places like KATL/KAHN are much improved vs. the 0Z GGEM track despite the lowered overall qpf because most of the 0Z run's qpf was in the form of rain since the track was too far north for this area to get much snow. The FL panhandle to off GA track is a good one in many cases for ATL-AHN and vicinity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Okay guys, the 12Z GGEM is just missing moisture. Actually, the precipitation type forecast even looks wrong into SC opposed to looking at the charts. The track is actually more favorable for more to get snow instead of rain opposed to the 00z run and it WILL change again in some form. QPF amounts mean nothing right now. We have no idea how much gulf moisture will or won't get involved and we will not know that until Thursday probably. Even that might be too early. The GFS is garbage with this system right now. HPC threw it out even. What you want to look for is a "North Trend" over various models other than just the GFS. If you see that, then you can begin to worry just a little bit if it continues to do so. The ECMWF and GGEM have an okay handle on this storm if you ask me, look for trends in those two models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Cold Rain - if you are lurking please get another thread ready to roll...... Thanks, mojo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 21, 2010 Author Share Posted December 21, 2010 Cold Rain - if you are lurking please get another thread ready to roll...... Thanks, mojo I had one posted earlier, but now it's gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 The GGEm is ok, pretty good for extreme Northeast GA and northern SC and most of NC, and into southeast VA. It s relying just in the kick of time a eastern GA low to throw moisture back into the cold air over the western Carolinas and GA and then blossoms that rain and snow shield across teh Carolinas during the day. Its close at 5H to the Euro . I personally don't like that scenario where I'm at, and hope its wrong. I want the moisture to begin working further south and west, like the Euro of the past few runs. The western Carolinas are walking a tight rope between a big monster and probably little to nothing. It depends on whre the trough begins to phase and /or if the southern stream can get caputred in time. If it doesn't then the snow will be from the shearing Upper Low on the west side of the Apps, little to none here, And then again snow again in eastern Caroinas with the developing coastal. So its entirely possible that a lot of places in teh Southeast end up with snow, except the foothills /western Piedmont of the Carolinas and the 85 corridor down to ATL and AHN. We really need the ULL to hold in tact, not get too sheared, but getting absorbed would be ok so long as a moisture plume begins to develop in Georgia, but thats always an iffy proposition and I wouldn't trust any model on that yet. Its like our version of a Miller B, and we're DC in that scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Hey everyone Cold Rain started a new thread!! Remember he started the first one and promised a snow storm despite the models so let's ride his good luck wagon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 12z euro is running. New thread below. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/4756-christmas-storm-iii/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 The GGEm is ok, pretty good for extreme Northeast GA and northern SC and most of NC, and into southeast VA. It s relying just in the kick of time a eastern GA low to throw moisture back into the cold air over the western Carolinas and GA and then blossoms that rain and snow shield across teh Carolinas during the day. Its close at 5H to the Euro . I personally don't like that scenario where I'm at, and hope its wrong. I want the moisture to begin working further south and west, like the Euro of the past few runs. The western Carolinas are walking a tight rope between a big monster and probably little to nothing. It depends on whre the trough begins to phase and /or if the southern stream can get caputred in time. If it doesn't then the snow will be from the shearing Upper Low on the west side of the Apps, little to none here, And then again snow again in eastern Caroinas with the developing coastal. So its entirely possible that a lot of places in teh Southeast end up with snow, except the foothills /western Piedmont of the Carolinas and the 85 corridor down to ATL and AHN. We really need the ULL to hold in tact, not get too sheared, but getting absorbed would be ok so long as a moisture plume begins to develop in Georgia, but thats always an iffy proposition and I wouldn't trust any model on that yet. Its like our version of a Miller B, and we're DC in that scenario. I wouldn't be surprised to see this upper low hold its own as it treks eastward into the SE rather than getting ripped apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I wouldn't be surprised to see this upper low hold its own as it treks eastward into the SE rather than getting ripped apart. thats been my thinking all along . I'm still nervous . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 thats been my thinking all along . I'm still nervous . yes im nervous as hell because if this thing phases at the right time then its a historic snowstorm for us and if not we get a passing flurry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keithinala Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 These types of posts aren't helpful or even accurate and I strongly suggest stuff like this not be posted unless you know what you are talking about. The canadian looks fine with the exception that it's a little on the dry side. It's quite a bit further south than the gfs..in fact it's further south with the surface low than it's 0z run. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Not sure why people are getting too worried. We all know at some point the euro is going to bring something new to the table. If it doesn't then great but I wouldn't be shocked if our storm changes then quickly changes back to the old solution by thursday. Also with the agreement on the past ENS runs of the GFS it's puts serious doubt on the OP. Timing will be crucial so no point getting worried until around thursday yep (at least for me ) until late wed. the system that could give the se snow is still out out range of the sampling. until the data gets input with "real" info (ie., where it really does come ashore) its still up in the air. if there are no major shifts over night wed. into thur morning we could be in pretty good shape for some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 holy cow the euro is going to go postal with this thing. huge phaser Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 holy cow the euro is going to go postal with this thing. huge phaser Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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