WeatherNC Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Nice Fix't that for ya.. This adds nothing to the disco except for unnecessary pages of clutter. We are in storm mode, if you have note please read the notice, and adjust your posts accordingly, as this one does not adhere to the guidelines in active situations like this. Before folks go jumping off Lookout's cliff because of the 12z GFS, understand that it is an outlier atm, based on strong run-to-run continuity from the Euro, as well as Canadian, and the UKMET (excluding the 0z run). Even the 12z NAM at 84hrs, looked very similar to the EC with the ULL in TX. I do not know why the GFS is this different, but hypothesizing it could be due to the lower resolution in a fast flow pattern. The 12z run turned the corner imo, and look for it to come more inline with the general consensus over the next 24 hrs. If one were to base a forecast on the global, use the mean at this point since it has been more consistent and smoothes out the run-run disconnect we have been seeing in this model. We still have another 48hrs or so left in the dead zone, so we are not out of the woods by any stretch. The timing of the phase has to be perfect. 6 hrs early or to late will have huge implications, and from past experience, the phasing usually misses one way or another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 The 12Z Ukie looks OK at 72, slower and stronger than the GFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Wish I had the answers and certainly would like to see that both the High Country and the Piedmont both get a significant snow from this system. My concern is the Euro has not been spot on this season so far as it usually is. The concern from all of us is that the GFS solution will trump. That is what at least one of the private agencies is going with. I would also feel better on QPF if the Gulf would get involved which does not seem to be happening at the level we have witnessed in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Good observation lookout. Trends are what we need to be looking at. Keep it south, qpf will come in time. Looking forward to the euro, hopefully it stays in line with the 00z runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Don't forget the GFS showed snow for Christmas the past couple years only to take it away. No reason to trust it just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 12z Canadian a step in the wrong direction -- looks like its trending toward the Ukie -- weaker low, headed out to sea. Much lighter QPF than last night's run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Not sure why people are getting too worried. We all know at some point the euro is going to bring something new to the table. If it doesn't then great but I wouldn't be shocked if our storm changes then quickly changes back to the old solution by thursday. Also with the agreement on the past ENS runs of the GFS it's puts serious doubt on the OP. Timing will be crucial so no point getting worried until around thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 This adds nothing to the disco except for unnecessary pages of clutter. We are in storm mode, if you have note please read the notice, and adjust your posts accordingly, as this one does not adhere to the guidelines in active situations like this. Before folks go jumping off Lookout's cliff because of the 12z GFS, understand that it is an outlier atm, based on strong run-to-run continuity from the Euro, as well as Canadian, and the UKMET (excluding the 0z run). Even the 12z NAM at 84hrs, looked very similar to the EC with the ULL in TX. I do not know why the GFS is this different, but hypothesizing it could be due to the lower resolution in a fast flow pattern. The 12z run turned the corner imo, and look for it to come more inline with the general consensus over the next 24 hrs. If one were to base a forecast on the global, use the mean at this point since it has been more consistent and smoothes out the run-run disconnect we have been seeing in this model. We still have another 48hrs or so left in the dead zone, so we are not out of the woods by any stretch. The timing of the phase has to be perfect. 6 hrs early or to late will have huge implications, and from past experience, the phasing usually misses one way or another. Yep, It looks like I'm going to be forced to hand out warnings and timeouts. People just aren't getting the message and some are flat out ignoring the warnings to stop with these unhelpful and stupid one line posts, off topic stuff, or smilies. From here on out, warnings will be given to anyone who does it. Another problem is a lot of these people jumping over my cliff don't know what they are talking about either. The 12z canadian is by no means in agreement with the gfs. It's further south with the surface low than it's 0z run for crying out loud. It's just a bit on the dry side but that is hardly something to freaking out about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 This post needs a map or a link> Thanks 12z Canadian a step in the wrong direction -- looks like its trending toward the Ukie -- weaker low, headed out to sea. Much lighter QPF than last night's run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 12z GGEM, 96hrs, 1015mb low in the FL Panhandle, looks about to phase with the northern stream shortly... Going boom off of CHS at 108 hrs, 1007mb, 995mb off of NE NC at 120hrs, 980mb off the tip of LI at 144hrs, stop hallucinating beanskip! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 12z Canadian a step in the wrong direction -- looks like its trending toward the Ukie -- weaker low, headed out to sea. Much lighter QPF than last night's run. Actually it bombs up the coast. http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/236_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Sorry using my cell... WeatherNC you beat me to it. Great post on why we shouldn't be too worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgiawx11 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 What are the chances that a low bombs in the Northern Gulf ? Why does that seem to happen less frequently than it does off the East Coast ? Wouldnt Atlanta have a better chance for significant snow if a low bombed in the Northern Gulf ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Bombs too late to do me any good -- low is weaker as it crosses Dixie and modeled QPF is 2/3 less than last night (I know, I know, ignore QPF). Not saying its a game-changer, just not as good as last night. 12z GGEM, 96hrs, 1015mb low in the FL Panhandle, looks about to phase with the northern stream shortly... Going boom off of CHS at 108 hrs, 1007mb, 995mb off of NE NC at 120hrs, 980mb off the tip of LI at 144hrs, stop hallucinating beanskip! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 12z Canadian phases way too late for anyone west of the carolinas. Not good IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCStateMMY Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 What are the chances that a low bombs in the Northern Gulf ? Why does that seem to happen less frequently than it does off the East Coast ? Wouldnt Atlanta have a better chance for significant snow if a low bombed in the Northern Gulf ? Lows are more prime to bomb in the Atlantic because the proximity of the Gulf Stream to the cold air over land creates one heck of a baroclinic zone. It was this same baroclinicit that caused Flyod to dump so much rain over eastern NC and why the January 25, 2000 storm became the legens that it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Bombs too late to do me any good -- low is weaker as it crosses Dixie and modeled QPF is 2/3 less than last night (I know, I know, ignore QPF). Not saying its a game-changer, just not as good as last night. Track of the low is still good, there will be many changes in QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 12Z GGEM not bad at all for NC folks, especially in the eastern sections. Phase is too late for me here, but it does suggest some backside light snow. Plus I think it is too fast based on what the 12Z UKIE is doing, so to my mind the game is still very much on- not a lock by any means- a lot of solutions still on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Not sure why people are getting too worried. We all know at some point the euro is going to bring something new to the table. If it doesn't then great but I wouldn't be shocked if our storm changes then quickly changes back to the old solution by thursday. Also with the agreement on the past ENS runs of the GFS it's puts serious doubt on the OP. Timing will be crucial so no point getting worried until around thursday The odds of every model being perfectly consistent with it's prior run this far in advance is low and it's ridiculous to be flipping out on the fact a model changes the position of a surface low a little 4 days in advance. It's absurd to think the model is going to be exactly like it's prior run every time. There are going to be ups and downs and some changes on the exact details this far in advance. This is an absolute given when dealing with storms 4 days out. Folks right now should be happy there is even a surface low in the general right area. That's all you should truly hope for and root for at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I guess you are deleting a lot of posts we're not seeing because I'm not seeing much flipping out. Observing that a run is not as good as a prior run and comparing those runs (SLP placement/5h features/qpf) is not against the rules is it? The odds of every model being perfectly consistent with it's prior run this far in advance is low and it's ridiculous to be flipping out on the fact a model changes the position of a surface low a little 4 days in advance. It's absurd to think the model is going to be exactly like it's prior run every time. There are going to be ups and downs and some changes on the exact details this far in advance. This is an absolute given when dealing with storms 4 days out. Folks right now should be happy there is even a surface low in the general right area. That's all you should truly hope for and root for at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Wow talking bout an excited NWS office: SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN 1054 AM CST TUE DEC 21 2010 TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-221600- STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON- HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE- SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS- WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE- CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE- GILES- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DOVER...CLARKSVILLE...SPRINGFIELD... GALLATIN...LAFAYETTE...CELINA...BYRDSTOWN...CAMDEN...ERIN... WAVERLY...DICKSON...ASHLAND CITY...NASHVILLE...LEBANON... MOUNT JULIET...HARTSVILLE...CARTHAGE...GAINESBORO...COOKEVILLE... LIVINGSTON...JAMESTOWN...LOBELVILLE...CENTERVILLE...HOHENWALD... FRANKLIN...BRENTWOOD...COLUMBIA...LEWISBURG...MURFREESBORO... WOODBURY...SMITHVILLE...SPARTA...CROSSVILLE...SHELBYVILLE... TULLAHOMA...MANCHESTER...MCMINNVILLE...ALTAMONT...SPENCER... WAYNESBORO...LAWRENCEBURG...PULASKI 1054 AM CST TUE DEC 21 2010 ...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR FIRST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL ON CHRISTMAS IN 17 YEARS... THERE HAVE BEEN ONLY NINE CHRISTMASES WITH MEASURABLE AMOUNTS OF SNOW SINCE SNOWFALL RECORD KEEPING BEGAN IN NASHVILLE BACK IN THE WINTER OF 1884 AND 1885. THE LAST TIME MEASURABLE SNOW FELL ON CHRISTMAS DAY IN NASHVILLE WAS IN 1993 WHEN THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH WAS MEASURED. TRACE AMOUNTS OF SNOW FELL ON CHRISTMAS IN 2002. STATISTICALLY THERE IS ONLY A 7 PERCENT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE SNOW ON ANY GIVEN CHRISTMAS. THE MOST SNOW EVER TO FALL ON CHRISTMAS IN NASHVILLE IS 2.7 INCHES IN 1969. A MAJOR STORM SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON THURSDAY AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT. DURING THE DAY FRIDAY THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM EAST TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA...SPREADING WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH RAIN ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS THE SURFACE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST INTO ALABAMA AND NORTH GEORGIA CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT...COLDER AIR GETS DRAWN IN BEHIND THE SURFACE SYSTEM...WITH SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE CHRISTMAS EVE AND CONTINUE INTO CHRISTMAS DAY. CLIMATOLOGICALLY...THIS IS A FAVORED TRACK FOR SNOW IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...BUT SINCE THIS EVENT IS SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...UNCERTAINITY STILL REMAINS IN THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE STORM SYSTEM AND SNOW AMOUNTS. $$ BOYD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I guess you are deleting a lot of posts we're not seeing because I'm not seeing much flipping out. Observing that a run is not as good as a prior run and comparing those runs (SLP placement/5h features/qpf) is not against the rules is it? I'm not sure what you are talking about, I was agreeing with you And trust me I have deleted a ton of posts, probably close to a few dozen since last night and around 10 in the last few minutes. I'm not saying this stuff for the hell of it you know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 The GFS trend south certainly puts it more in line with the other models tracks. However, the exact speed and amplitude of the upper features differs some and thus we see differences with modeled QPF which is of course what we are all interested in. Keep in mind that the s/w will not be ahsore into California unill tomorrow evening! Thus the model runs may waffle right until at least the 00z runs tomorrow night. When you are relying on timing and phasing, which we are for at least a big event, you are going to have model oscilations. So I wouldnt lose hope. I would rather be where we are now as opposed to an Ohio Valley track and hoping it trends south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Oh OK -- it's all good. Make no mistake, I'm not volunteering for your job!!! I'm not sure what you are talking about, I was agreeing with you And trust me I have deleted a ton of posts, probably close to a few dozen since last night and around 10 in the last few minutes. I'm not saying this stuff for the hell of it you know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 If history repeats itself day 5 and 4 we lose our storm or it doesn't look as good then day 3 it comes back . Most of our big snow producers follow this guideline all most every time. With a small window of opportunity for the storm to come together everything has to be perfect, and right now we are missing data as usual and the models are going to do some major and minor shifting from run to run. I do like the Euro more than any other model because of the fact it does not flip as much, I did not say it did not flip but just not as much as the others. Look for trends right now not details like how much you are getting and not getting. But, trends like less moisture, more moisture low is gradually moving slower, more SW, more NW, what ever the trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 The odds of every model being perfectly consistent with it's prior run this far in advance is low and it's ridiculous to be flipping out on the fact a model changes the position of a surface low a little 4 days in advance. It's absurd to think the model is going to be exactly like it's prior run every time. There are going to be ups and downs and some changes on the exact details this far in advance. This is an absolute given when dealing with storms 4 days out. Folks right now should be happy there is even a surface low in the general right area. That's all you should truly hope for and root for at this point. And to be honest what would be the fun of models being right 99% of the time. This is why we wait in anticipation when models are coming out. Now obviously I know how easily we can loose this storm, but you're 100% just having something on table is good enough at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rosie Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 REG PCPN TYPE I know I am not the brightest weather weenie but does this not show snow for a lot of folks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Seee above REG PCPN TYPE I know I am not the brightest weather weenie but does this not show snow for a lot of folks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Not sure it if it was mentioned but the GFS ENS Mean is further south. Hard to tell with the maps I'm looking at but looks more in line with the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 REG PCPN TYPE I know I am not the brightest weather weenie but does this not show snow for a lot of folks? The previous run was wetter, and dropped frozen precip for a longer period of time. As has been often noted, it's a fool's errand to try and predict qpf at this point, though. but the earlier run looked much better for many locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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