GaWx Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 No, it doesn't depend on what part of central ga it goes through..no part of central usually works. Unless there is a really cold airmass already in place, you are looking at rain for the atlanta/athens area 9/10 times if the low moves anywhere north of extreme south georgia (unless there is a strong wedge in place in which case you could get some freezing rain/sleet) Agreed 100%. If a person looks at old wx maps, he/she will see the climo. if it goes through C GA, then the best hope is normally to get some backend stuff, which usually isn't a big deal although it can give some nice flurry activity. Also, on occasiony, a closed upper low will follow and give a decent sticking snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Disaster run for the whole board as it looks like it's also going out to see -- better take a shart left turn on the MA/NE folks will be on suicide watch. Still, this should be about the trend, not the actual solution, right? Correct. This run is not good for the Carolinas at all and even worse for the lee areas where we are because this is a frontal passage. The areas west of the Apps get snow from the residual dying/shearing ULL and that can actuall drop good snow in Tenn and northern Ala, and points west, but the GFS shears this moisture rapidly because of the orientation of the phase. This would literally skip over you and I with zero to trace amounts of precip, be it flurries or sprinkles. The devil is in the details. The GFS doesnt' dig far enough west to capture the closed low (or open strong trough in Arkansas) to spark a negative tilt developing Florida/Georgia low. The Euro and others models do just in the knick of time. I'm sitting on needles and pins, because this solution could be correct. The EURO doesn't leave any room to play with . If it misses the phase by a few miles, we're completely out, holding a stocking full of coal on Christmas Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I do not want anything or anybody to take a shart. It'll be worse than a shart if the GFS holds and is correct at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 The GFS is certainly scaring me on this one. I know it is too easy for something to go wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I think this was a good run of the GFS; reason being it trended towards the other models. Also if the GFS was to verify, I think precip would be greater. Many of our last storms (except the last) have overperformed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Just checked the QPF again, and for me, some of my "trace" actually occurs today and tomorrow since thats a cumulative map. So technically, its a complete non-event here, literally. Yes, a colder run does not necessarily make a good run- although here in north GA I do not have much hope anyway, too many factors have to come together. Folks north and NE of me do not despair, the GFS and other models are still flopping around which means we are a long way from knowing details, the CA vort has yet to come onshore plus then there is the phase with the northern stream to consider. Almost anything is possible (except significant snow south of the Perimeter in ATL) at this juncture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 The map from my morning outlook but I am nervous to say the least! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I am not sure what happened to the article. Keep clicking every once in a while to see if it comes back up. I am going to write an update this aftenroon anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 It makes you wonder. However, remember last year we had the gfs be consistently wrong for days with one of our snowstorms. Last year the GFS was the only model that showed snow on Christmas and look how well that worked out. Glenn Burns hyped up the event and looked quite foolish after that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Despite looking different initially, the 12z is pretty much the same as the previous GFS runs. So why is the GFS holding ground? Its completely different from all the other models, yet it has remained as consistent as they have. This run of the GFS puts most of TN in 1-3" of snow while the 6z run had that same swath up in KY. It did trend south a bit but nothing like the EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I am not sure what happened to the article. Keep clicking every once in a while to see if it comes back up. I am going to write an update this aftenroon anyway. It worked for me. I think you are getting a lot of traffic . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 It worked for me. I think you are getting a lot of traffic . Me too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I am not sure what happened to the article. Keep clicking every once in a while to see if it comes back up. I am going to write an update this aftenroon anyway. Maybe it's just getting a lot of hits. I know I shared it on my facebook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Maybe it's just getting a lot of hits. I know I shared it on my facebook. The site is fine. It can handle a couple dozen weenies looking at it. It's just plain not up there anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 The GFS is certainly scaring me on this one. I know it is too easy for something to go wrong. That's why I don't understand why gsp was so bullish so far in advance. However, the gfs seems all by itself at this point. The new uk and nam are both slower/stronger with our upper low than the gfs. There are also some noticeable differences in how the gfs is handling the northern stream this run vs the rest of the models as it has it further south and already interacting with the southern stream by H48. Considering the overwhelming model agreement against the gfs, I would not side with the gfs at this point. If we have some other models showing something similar, then it's time to start getting worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 That's why I don't understand why gsp was so bullish so far in advance. However, the gfs seems all by itself at this point. The new uk and nam are both slower/stronger with our upper low than the gfs. There are also some noticeable differences in how the gfs is handling the northern stream this run vs the rest of the models as it has it further south and already interacting with the southern stream by H48. Considering the overwhelming model agreement against the gfs, I would not side with the gfs at this point. If we have some other models showing something similar, then it's time to start getting worried. I agree I know we are all just on edge too because we really want this thing. I am trying to keep the weenie in me at bay as much as possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Looks like the GGEM is a bit slower and a bit more north with the 500 low at 48 hours vs. 60 hours on 0z. On 0z run it was on the Arizona/nm line in the middle of those states -- On the 12z it's over the NE corner of Arizona. Hopefully not enough to matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I agree I know we are all just on edge too because we really want this thing. I am trying to keep the weenie in me at bay as much as possible. Agreed: If this weren't something that many of us, despite our best efforts hadn't already begun to embrace, this would be an interesting model debate. As it is, the Grinch Forecast System looms over our Christmas, just waiting to steal all the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx n of atl Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 As it is, the Grinch Forecast System looms over our Christmas, just waiting to steal all the snow. Grinch Forecast System better learn to grow a heart!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Not sure the 12z GGEM is going to be a good run for us ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 At 96hr Canadian has 1015mb sfc low just north of Panama City. QPF looks anemic so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 question? Have we had a single model in the past be the only one and be correct with a consistent differential from the rest? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 If you had only 1 model that you could pick to do a public forecast with which would you choose? Euro or GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman22 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 How far south the snow could get if the low tracks south of New Orleans then arcross the FL Panhandle then goes NE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 If you had only 1 model that you could pick to do a public forecast with which would you choose? Euro or GFS? Euro...more consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 GFS has another bad run and people are throwing in the towel? Come on now. Keep your inner weenie in check. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman22 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I read over on Alabamawx.com that the NOGAPS is not a good model. Is it true? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Of course not. What everyone feared is happening. And the 1:00 Euro will stick a fork in it. These types of posts aren't helpful or even accurate and I strongly suggest stuff like this not be posted unless you know what you are talking about. The canadian looks fine with the exception that it's a little on the dry side. It's quite a bit further south than the gfs..in fact it's further south with the surface low than it's 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I read over on Alabamawx.com that the NOGAPS is not a good model. Is it true? I would agree with that statement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 GFS has another bad run and people are throwing in the towel? Come on now. Keep your inner weenie in check. I think folks are just scared it might be right and then we'll see the other models follow suit. Seeing snow on Christmas is a one in a lifetime event for most people living in the southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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