strongwxnc Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 L in Cen TX at 72 ... GFS caving -- 5h low way back in SE N.Mex at 66 hours vs. central Oklahom at 72 hours on 6z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 GFS is still warm through 75. The southern stream looks stronger and futher south, but the northern stream still may not phase on this run. Well scratch that. at 84 looks to be phasing. check out the qpf over arkansas under the 5H. Gonna be a soaker! Picture a white soaker further east and north. and south once the cold air wraps in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Just looking quickly at the NAM placement at 66 hours the GFS looks a smidge farther south than the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Updated forecast and discussion with outlook map: http://www.sandhillswx.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLO Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 HUGE Shift southwest at 66 hours II assume that is a good thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 It does in this case as cold air rushes in. You don't want to be too far away from the low or you won't have abundant moisture. Yeah, but you want to be on the north side, and there is always the dreaded waa, if it is a strong storm. Better down around Valdosta, if it can't be in Fla., for Ga. even with the phasing with cold air. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 HUGE Shift southwest at 66 hours It's about time it slowed down. Still a little faster than the nam though..but it's a big improvement so far. Still has a ways to go though through hour 90. I have a feeling the gfs is still too fast..it certainly is compared tot he rest of the guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Looks like 75-1." in some spots GFS is still warm through 75. The southern stream looks stronger and futher south, but the northern stream still may not phase on this run. Well scratch that. at 84 looks to be phasing. check out the qpf over arkansas under the 5H. Gonna be a soaker! Picture a white soaker further east and north. and south once the cold air wraps in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 At 90 hour snowin gin N GA, Ala, MS and all of Tenn. By 96 its starting to pivot and get pulled north. Still not quite the look of ECMWF but very close and trending. Just futher north with the whole setup and never sparks a good Gulf or Florida low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 It's about time it slowed down. Still a little faster than the nam though..but it's a big improvement so far. Still has a ways to go though through hour 90. I have a feeling the gfs is still too fast..it certainly is compared tot he rest of the guidance. It's definitely playing catch up like we all thought it would, lol. If the euro and canadian hold...man, it'll be hard to not be sold on this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 It does in this case as cold air rushes in. You don't want to be too far away from the low or you won't have abundant moisture. **************************************** Good point Keith in Alabama. The Cold Air Advection associated with the HP dropping down from the northern plains, due to the PNA ridging that is setting up, in association with the counterclockwise flow from the 50/50 low, bringing down cold NE flow, and damming it against the Appalachians, makes this a little different situation, where you may not have to have the LP track 500 miles to the South. Keith in Georgia Hmm, not so sure I agree with that. It's rare to get snow in north Ga when the low passes through central Georgia..or at least a major one. The 850mb low will track too far north and regardless of whether or not there is damming, that means rain. In this case, with the high so far west, it's not ideal for damming anyway. You do not want this to come that far north..climo wise our best bet is to have a low track in the northeast Gulf/panhandle to off the ga coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 By 102 its closing off near the Southern Lakes. What this does is shear the good bowling ball feature and whip lashes it through the Carolinas quickly, so it wouldn't be that big of anything if thats the case. There would be decent snow west of the Apps though. Its a step closer to the Euro at 5H, we just need the ridging to the north in Canada to push the phasing a little more west and south, like on the Euro runs. That would spark a Gulf low and really crank the snowmachine in the Tenn valley and then really explode the snows over Ga and the Carolinas. But this run doesn't quite do it, however trends..... Look at QPF. It gives upstate SC, the western Piedmont and lower foothills of NC less than .10". Just trace amounts really, and heaven forbid that is ACTUALLy going to verify IF IF this plays out like the GFS says, with the whiplashing of the system through. Hopefully the Euro holds ground. Its just sprinkles or a couple flurries here, literally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgiawx11 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Hmm, not so sure I agree with that. It's rare to get snow in north Ga when the low passes through central Georgia..or at least a major one. The 850mb low will track too far north and regardless of whether or not there is damming, that means rain. In this case, with the high so far west, it's not ideal for damming anyway. You do not want this to come that far north..climo wise our best bet is to have a low track in the northeast Gulf/panhandle to off the ga coast I guess it also depends on what part of Central GA the low passes through. If the low passes through the southern Atlanta suburbs like Peachtree City and McDonough I have a hard time believing just 20-30 miles to the north in Atlanta it will be snowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Yeah, but you want to be on the north side, and there is always the dreaded waa, if it is a strong storm. Better down around Valdosta, if it can't be in Fla., for Ga. even with the phasing with cold air. T For the Atlanta area, I agree 100%. The perfect track for a major snow for ATL is a Miller A that tracks along the northern GOM and then across N FL or on occasion C FL. However, if it is cold enough, a track across S GA can and has worked. A winding up low tracking across C GA almost never causes a sig. snow at ATL. A low tracking there needs to stay weak or else there's almost always be too much WAA for sig. snow on the frontside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Just checked the QPF again, and for me, some of my "trace" actually occurs today and tomorrow since thats a cumulative map. So technically, its a complete non-event here, literally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kanc2001 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Well, at least wait till the GFS/GGEM/Euro runs instead of putting it out right before they could see the storm on it... ohhhhh I get it! But really, a mention of "uncertainty" would be nice. CAE wont bite until probably tomorrow afternoon disco at earliest, imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Despite looking different initially, the 12z is pretty much the same as the previous GFS runs. So why is the GFS holding ground? Its completely different from all the other models, yet it has remained as consistent as they have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Hoping the GFS keeps trending towards the other models. It would be awful for the GFS to be right and all the other models to be wrong now. I guess then we'd have to call the GFS the Good For Screwed model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Disaster run for the whole board as it looks like it's also going out to see -- better take a shart left turn on the MA/NE folks will be on suicide watch. Still, this should be about the trend, not the actual solution, right? Just checked the QPF again, and for me, some of my "trace" actually occurs today and tomorrow since thats a cumulative map. So technically, its a complete non-event here, literally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugo Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 CAE wont bite until probably tomorrow afternoon disco at earliest, imo Same with ILM. They're still going with mild temps and rainy on Saturday. Often times, this far out, they'll go with 30's and rain when there's uncertainty, but temps are still up in the 50's on the forecast. Discussion only mentions that the low could possibly be farther south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I guess it also depends on what part of Central GA the low passes through. If the low passes through the southern Atlanta suburbs like Peachtree City and McDonough I have a hard time believing just 20-30 miles to the north in Atlanta it will be snowing. No, it doesn't depend on what part of central ga it goes through..no part of central usually works. Unless there is a really cold airmass already in place, you are looking at rain for the atlanta/athens area 9/10 times if the low moves anywhere north of extreme south georgia (unless there is a strong wedge in place in which case you could get some freezing rain/sleet) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rob Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 12Z Gfs seems to give BNA a good snowfall. Looks like we have several solutions that could yield us a good snowfall. QPF is painted at almost .50" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Despite looking different initially, the 12z is pretty much the same as the previous GFS runs. So why is the GFS holding ground? Its completely different from all the other models, yet it has remained as consistent as they have. It makes you wonder. However, remember last year we had the gfs be consistently wrong for days with one of our snowstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 If the CMC and EURO keep holding there solutions we will play the GFS vs the world again and we all know how that usually plays out. My guess is that the N stream biased GFS is just trying to shear it out and get back to meh looking map. Its handing off the energy too quickly as always. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
socar2001 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 If the CMC and EURO keep holding there solutions we will play the GFS vs the world again and we all know how that usually plays out. My guess is that the N stream biased GFS is just trying to shear it out and get back to meh looking map. Its handing off the energy too quickly as always. when do the next models roll? thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Disaster run for the whole board as it looks like it's also going out to see -- better take a shart left turn on the MA/NE folks will be on suicide watch. Still, this should be about the trend, not the actual solution, right? I do not want anything or anybody to take a shart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 For the Atlanta area, I agree 100%. The perfect track for a major snow for ATL is a Miller A that tracks along the northern GOM and then across N FL or on occasion C FL. However, if it is cold enough, a track across S GA can and has worked. A winding up low tracking across C GA almost never causes a sig. snow at ATL. A low tracking there needs to stay weak or else there's almost always be too much WAA for sig. snow on the frontside. Hey, Larry. Glad to see you! Yeah, the only recent low in central Ga. I can remember that gave us snow was the ULL a few years ago, that came across Columbus, and it didn't even get the northern counties. If it isn't carrying it's own cold air, I can't see a central Ga. crossing storm being good for anyone but the northern counties, if them. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Ack on the gfs run. I think its going to come down to whether or not a slp forms along the Gulf coast. And we probably won't really be able to see that for another 36-48 hours or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kanc2001 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Despite looking different initially, the 12z is pretty much the same as the previous GFS runs. So why is the GFS holding ground? Its completely different from all the other models, yet it has remained as consistent as they have. GFS has domestic upstream data the foreign models dont have?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 The ukmet is looking good w/ a closed low at 72hrs in texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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