DLI4SCwx Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Excuse this offtopic question, but where is Stormsfury at? Anyone seen him post on here lately? He's usually giving his insight when it comes to situations like these. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 and here comes the precip ... starting to break out over W TX.. snow breaking out as far as E TN! I'm noticing the precip breaking out further east in TN just north of the 0 850. There was a significant jump eastward with this precip from 78 to 84. I beleive the GFS actually showed this precip max, but a bit further north. I wouldn't be surprised to see snow break out over most of TN and NC Christmas Eve day and night.. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 One thing for raleigh followers is Dallas. If the snow breaks out in Dallas that's a good sign to go buy the bread and milk Also the last episode that actually happened here in deep SC, Dallas got hit good too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Just saw the model comparison on TWC. Totally funny. They are totally stuck on the GFS. That's because they favor the climatology aspect relative to where "we" are. It is the 800lb gorrilla in the room none of us in the SE want to mention right now. However, there's real potential that "gorrilla" is about to get shot of tranquilizer right in the rear end and be out COLD for a period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLO Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I'm noticing the precip breaking out further east in TN just north of the 0 850. There was a significant jump eastward with this precip from 78 to 84. I beleive the GFS actually showed this precip max, but a bit further north. I wouldn't be surprised to see snow break out over most of TN and NC Christmas Eve day and night.. TW That doesn't show anything anywhere close to the SE on Christmas. Has it slowed down or am I reading it wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 That doesn't show anything anywhere close to the SE on Christmas. Has it slowed down or am I reading it wrong? The storm has slowed down on the last NAM run more in line with the amazing last Euro run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 UTC conversion charts for those (like me) who forget http://www.spacearchive.info/utc.htm Great NAM as it keeps in step with the EURO. EE rule is so in play here folks.. Also a quote from the Main thread 12Z discussion. FWIW, the Gulf is definitely open and will remain open through the period as the S/W makes the transition across TX/OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 working on my forecast discussion and forecast now if anyone is interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DLI4SCwx Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Also the last episode that actually happened here in deep SC, Dallas got hit good too. Are you talking about the snow event that occured here in February? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 UTC conversion charts for those (like me) who forget http://www.spacearchive.info/utc.htm Great NAM as it keeps in step with the EURO. EE rule is so in play here folks.. Also a quote from the Main thread 12Z discussion. Just remember to subtract 5 hours in standard time.. 4 hours in daylight savings time with that.. snow will start breaking out over NC probably sometime in the early morning on Christmas Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NegativeTilt Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 See Rule #7, Double EE Rule...ty http://www.americanw...ed-forecasting/ TY sir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 That doesn't show anything anywhere close to the SE on Christmas. Has it slowed down or am I reading it wrong? The NAM stops @ 7pm on Friday, so it can't show anything for Christmas day yet. You'll have to wait until tonight's 00z run. Also, you should anticipate some degree of precip breaking out over the southeast as the storm deepens. Don't simply look at the precip moving in from the west. That is why I beleive it is important to note the precip that has developed in TN on Friday afternoon. Going by the NAM, I'd expect many of us in the southeast to wake up to cloudy and cold with precip starting early in the deay unless it has already started. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Are you talking about the snow event that occured here in February? Yes, Dallas got hit on the 11th from that one I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 the NAM is working out like I thought it would so far. Trending south, maintaining closed structure, and streaking moisture east across the Tenn Valley due to getting caught up in 2 vorts in the prevailing winds. The Pacific low forces an enormous ridge to stretch nearly to the pole, and with the blocking in Canada, this sends our northern stream diving right into the bowling ball upper low, so phasing is about to begin about where the Euro had it. Temps should continue to drop with the lowering heights aloft,and surface cold air pushing southward, and the divergence ahead of the upper low should begin to fill moisture in across Arkansas, Tenn. and northern Louisiana and Missippi, many places snow. Its a good thing we have the block in Canada and the 50 /50 and in this case the Pacific Low that develops huge PNA ridging. Without any of those, this system would aim for the MidAtlantic or Northeast. Its a very good look and I like where things are headed. Some one is going to get a streak of snow pretty quickly across the Tenn. Valley by nightfall Christmas eve as the moisture from the closed low gets stretched and fanned out, and that area could get a nice suprise accumulations before the main show gets started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormSC Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Excuse this offtopic question, but where is Stormsfury at? Anyone seen him post on here lately? He's usually giving his insight when it comes to situations like these. I was thinking the same thing. He really helps me see things clearer. He was a great help with the Feb. event! Looking for a Christmas miracle here on the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keithinala Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 That doesn't show anything anywhere close to the SE on Christmas. Has it slowed down or am I reading it wrong? It slowed down, but that last map of the NAM is for 6PM Central Time Christmas Eve. Lots of changes for Christmas day after that no doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 My morning update for you reading pleasure before the 12z GFS rolls in http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-raleigh/potential-for-increasing-for-christmas-snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 My morning update for you reading pleasure before the 12z GFS rolls in http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-raleigh/potential-for-increasing-for-christmas-snowstorm that certainly was a pleasure to read its hard to believe how things are looking better (as opposed to our usual luck of worse) as we get closer. it will be interesting to see if there are any changes on the models once we get to wed. pm and the potential storm is within the US and easier to track (and get info into the models) becoming cautiously optimistic now (and whats worse, i am now getting more excited about snow than christmas ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DLI4SCwx Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 My morning update for you reading pleasure before the 12z GFS rolls in http://www.examiner....stmas-snowstorm Great analysis and insight as always Alan! One thing though, how about making that moderate to heavy snow fall area move a lil more southeast! lol j/k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rosie Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 My morning update for you reading pleasure before the 12z GFS rolls in http://www.examiner....stmas-snowstorm Great write up, thanks to you and all of the very knowledgeable folks on this site! Here is to a great White Christmas to all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Great analysis and insight as always Alan! One thing though, how about making that moderate to heavy snow fall area move a lil more southeast! lol j/k That could be a reality if these things keep coming South lol. I think the UKMET might be too far South but.. you never know.. maybe the others want to play catchup. It has been a pretty good model in the past. Just think it may be too extreme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 In 100 years of records, there has never been a White Christmas (>1") in Birmingham. Perhaps it's time for streaks to die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DLI4SCwx Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 12z GFS is rolling.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 12z GFS is rolling.... Yeah, lookout is going against the model running posts btw, didn't know if you saw it or not cause of the epic clutter that is about to ensue. Also, this run.. if I see it move South at all (the gfs) then I'll get excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Should the GFS come in line with the other models, this board might explode. The NAM + Euro combination is hard to beat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DLI4SCwx Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Yeah, lookout is going against the model running posts btw, didn't know if you saw it or not cause of the epic clutter that is about to ensue. Also, this run.. if I see it move South at all (the gfs) then I'll get excited. Thanks for telling me that. I actually missed that. You are right a bunch of clutter about to embark upon us. lol Yes a move in the direction of the Euro would be wonderful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rob Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I am really starting to like where we are sitting here in Nashville. Very nice discussion Foothills. How do you feel about BNA at the current moment.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Thanks to Foothills and RaleighWx for their excellent, as usual, insight - and to others as well. Also, thanks for giving TN a look on your forecasts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 RGEM. http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/12_054_R1_north@america_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_048.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 5h -- slower and deeper on 12z GFS at 24 hours -- is the GFS getting ready to blink????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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