Wow Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 This is a new product from the canadians: Mind you, it's still snowing here 12 hours after this depiction. awesome. that's 12"+ on the ground for both of us. Again, quite similar to the Feb 04 storm with distribution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Christmas Day...Mostly cloudy. Snow likely...mainly in the afternoon. Heavy snow accumulation possible. Near steady temperatures in the lower 30s. Chance of snow 60 percent. Wow. Just....wow. Awesome! I am hoping this works our for my area but we know how it usually goes . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowacane Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 FWIW-----Just another forecaster's thoughts here. Watched JB's big dog and he is just not buying the euro (It's known for dragging southern systems) it's to slow with it, He said it's possible BUT not likely. thus He is still showing OV MA NE snowstorm. Well then we are likely set, as he has been wrong many times over the past few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 The NWS guys and many others have said the Euro is the best at these type systems: deep SW cut-off LP hugging the low line coming onshore through Texas. So WTHeck is up with JB? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rosie Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 lol you have to love ffc. Their discussion is the worst of all the local offices and so is their forecast reasoning. That said, I'm a little surprised to see some of the nws offices so bullish this early. The wording from gsp was particularly strong considering this is 4 to 5 days away. It's not something you see very often from them. We usually complain about them not being bullish enough but in this case I wonder if they are a little too bullish, especially for the upstate/ne ga. I know it's tempting with only the gfs saying no at this point but still..it's a long ways away still. Now watch me jinx us by saying as much FFC on the other hand is simply riding the gfs like a 2 dollar hooker as usual which is pure laziness and also not very sound. Nothing surprising from them. You would think FFC would get tired of seeing gsp blow them out of the water all the time and making them look like amateurs on a near daily basis though. I cannot understand why NC, AL and Rabun County all have a 60% chance and only 20 here? Looks like the last snow event forecast ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 If any... I think the reason GSP is throwing this out so heavy on Tuesday, might be due to the folks who are traveling this weekend. The general pop do not look that far out (weather wise) but I think those folks who do not, do during this season. I could be dead wrong, but I thought their discussion was right along with what our great posters painted last night. btw, hope you can post more man..... lol you have to love ffc. Their discussion is the worst of all the local offices and so is their forecast reasoning. That said, I'm a little surprised to see some of the nws offices so bullish this early. The wording from gsp was particularly strong considering this is 4 to 5 days away. It's not something you see very often from them. We usually complain about them not being bullish enough but in this case I wonder if they are a little too bullish, especially for the upstate/ne ga. I know it's tempting with only the gfs saying no at this point but still..it's a long ways away still. Now watch me jinx us by saying as much FFC on the other hand is simply riding the gfs like a 2 dollar hooker as usual which is pure laziness and also not very sound. Nothing surprising from them. You would think FFC would get tired of seeing gsp blow them out of the water all the time and making them look like amateurs on a near daily basis though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 The NWS guys and many others have said the Euro is the best at these type systems: deep SW cut-off LP hugging the low line coming onshore through Texas. So WTHeck is up with JB? There are not nearly as many accucrap subscribers south of Richmond . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 our local tv mets that had snow in forecast last night now have rain on Saturday highs ranging from 38-42 degrees depending on which one you look at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Well after catching up on 15 pages i have to say this storm has my attention. Already have snow in the forecast for sat. I am still trotting to temper expectations until late tomorrow but we'll see how successful i am lol If I bail on Christmas with the family to come back for snow i will be in trouble lol It's raining lightly here this morning but comfortable above freezing of course To be honest i am a little flabbergasted that the models aren't all over the place this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 There are not nearly as many accucrap subscribers south of Richmond . Well since the 6z GFS avoids everyone outside of the south with rain you gotta wonder if he is going to let everyone know there is no chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 The NWS guys and many others have said the Euro is the best at these type systems: deep SW cut-off LP hugging the low line coming onshore through Texas. So WTHeck is up with JB? There's something else funny about your JB statement. Didn't he say that NC would have a white Christmas this year? Then he contradicts himself to make the NE love him? No really though, the Euro is ending up being the favorite because of past storms/climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 The NWS guys and many others have said the Euro is the best at these type systems: deep SW cut-off LP hugging the low line coming onshore through Texas. So WTHeck is up with JB? The double barrel low system that BMX discusses is pretty much dead on. They seem to have a good handle on things. I have a few thoughts as to why JB would continue the northern path into "his area" *cough* subscribers. But I shall keep them to myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Well since the 6z GFS avoids everyone outside of the south with rain you gotta wonder if he is going to let everyone know there is no chance. for the many times he has been wrong let's just hope he is again on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 GSP is going all out!! Friday Night: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 26. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Christmas Day: Snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 30. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Saturday Night: Snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 18. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Sunday: A chance of snow. Mostly sunny, with a high near 27. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 17. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kanc2001 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 awesome. that's 12"+ on the ground for both of us. Again, quite similar to the Feb 04 storm with distribution. looks like a screw job in SC for those south of I-85 (roughly) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I like jb and think is great at long range patterns. But I have no idea what he is thinking on this one. I feel the same way, I don't see how he can't buy the euro with the support it has ? It's not like it's out there alone. The thing is JB is right enough to be dangerous just like the GFS ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 That would get you your foot John......, Nice new map QC..... awesome. that's 12"+ on the ground for both of us. Again, quite similar to the Feb 04 storm with distribution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 There's something else funny about your JB statement. Didn't he say that NC would have a white Christmas this year? Then he contradicts himself to make the NE love him? No really though, the Euro is ending up being the favorite because of past storms/climo. he will work it in his forecast, he is just covering his tracks. if the storm happens his northeast will get snow then he will say it went further south than he thought therefore southeast got a white Christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Not this one! our local tv mets that had snow in forecast last night now have rain on Saturday highs ranging from 38-42 degrees depending on which one you look at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Most of the foreign modeling continues to look good for snow fans for much of the region. In fact, I would imagine most snow lovers would take the 0z run of the GEM or Euro and run with it. We really are attempting to thread the needle here. Two disturbances, their interaction, and the timing of that interaction are the key variables here. If they phase too quickly, you get the GFS....if they phase too slowly, you get the UKMET. If Goldilocks finds the porridge she likes, we get the 0z Euro or GEM. I am still leaning my forecast in the direction of the GEM and Euro. Until I see a chink in their armor, I see no reason to change. But just remember we are walking the tight-rope here. If have put up a full blog post and my morning video here on my site. By the way, here is the data from my 7-day on-air today for the Triad. Very good blog Matthew!! Love the model breakdowns...keep up the good work! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 looks like a screw job in SC for those south of I-85 (roughly) I think CAE would have a chance but for you the only shot would be some back end snow if the Euro verified verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 looks like a screw job in SC for those south of I-85 (roughly) The GGEM is showing off rain/no snow accumulation because of a slight more Northern track effecting temps. I think we'll be alright and details like that will work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 This is a new product from the canadians: Mind you, it's still snowing here 12 hours after this depiction. Wow just wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I feel the same way, I don't see how he can't buy the euro with the support it has ? It's not like it's out there alone. The thing is JB is right enough to be dangerous just like the GFS ! you are so right and that is the scary part. Like I have said I am waiting until thursday to really get excited. I am preparing trucks for the storm but trying not to get excited to be let down on friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Thanks. Love the thrill of the hunt, so to speak... Very good blog Matthew!! Love the model breakdowns...keep up the good work! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Not this one! +1 Matt, I watched you this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 If any... I think the reason GSP is throwing this out so heavy on Tuesday, might be due to the folks who are traveling this weekend. The general pop do not look that far out (weather wise) but I think those folks who do not, do during this season. I could be dead wrong, but I thought their discussion was right along with what our great posters painted last night. btw, hope you can post more man..... That crossed my mind but holidays have never seem to make them more bullish before. I've always thought it was a good idea to be more bullish around the holidays because you don't want people caught off guard and risking their lives. But being 4 to 5 days out is really pushing it. And I can't think of a single time gsp or any other southeast office was being that bullish so far in advance. What has been pointed out by mets on a number of occassions over the years is that there is a BIG difference between us talking about this on a weather board and an actual nws being bullish..even in light of good model support. Their forecast goes out to everyone and will effect everyone from schools, cops, emergency personal, business, etc and many places actually spend money in preperation for a winter storm so if they get it wrong they will lose that money. That's a pretty big burden on the nws to be right about it. Now, if the winter storm is within a day or two and there is overwhelming model support (and common sense) supporting a major event, I don't understand why some choose to ignore the reality of the situation and not be bullish (like FFC). But being 4 or 5 days away is different, That is a really long time for a lot to change. The inner weenie in me is thrilled to see them be that bullish, don't get me wrong, but it does surprise the rational side of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I think CAE would have a chance but for you the only shot would be some back end snow if the Euro verified verbatim. From the latest Euro, I think even CAE is supportive of mainly a snow event. There may be a sharp cutoff to our east/se though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Thanks. Love the thrill of the hunt, so to speak... Yep Matt, great video as always! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Wow just wow. Dont forget, there's still roughly 6-10 more MM left to fall that isnt depicted because the map stops at 120. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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