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Christmas Storm II

Cold Rain

By Cold Rain,
in Southeastern States

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Jon

Jon

Posted
Posted

Is it too early to ask what the timing is for this in different areas? Hoping for a couple of hours to run to the families christmas morning before it starts dumping

Yes...timing will change. In general, local tv meteorologists should be pretty accurate the night before. I'd say check with the mets here then, as the trend is that storms have been moving around 6 hours faster or so...that could make a big difference in your plans! Trying to plan around the storm any model is putting out right now would be a waste of time and effort!

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Buckethead

Buckethead

Posted
Posted

-16 at 850 for eastern Tn , Westrn NC Monday morning. Combined with strong high prssure, time of year, and snow cover, Wow this is going to be a truly cold airmass. I made it down to 7 degrees earlier this week , surely we'll get very close to zero if the wind goes calm.

Theres still a possibility this storm doesnt' phase in time for us while its developing in south Ga. We'll see though . It sure is about the best looking prog I think I've ever seen for the Southeast in general. It's better than anything last year for so many people.

Good night folks.

Thank you for your analaysis, truly... folks like you make these threads what they are.

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Rob

Rob

Posted
Posted

Wow, we would def take .45 QPF here in Nashville. Ratios would be pretty good given what is shown. 850mb temps are close to -10C. Foothills mentions that some fell before, should I assume this snow? Also I would like to thank Foothills for keeping BNA in the loop.

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eyewall

eyewall

Posted
Posted

RAH is starting to bite:

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SLOWLY COMING INTO

BETTER AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER THE

SOUTHEAST US. OVERALL...A TROUGH IS PROGGED TO ENTER THE SOUTHERN CA

REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED

STATES WHERE IT THEN PHASES WITH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY FRIDAY INTO

SATURDAY. RESULTANT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST

WILL THEN LIFT NORTHEAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST

COAST. TIMING AND LOCATION ISSUES ARE STILL A PROBLEM AMONG THE

MODELS...WITH THE ECMWF CONTINUING TO BE THE SLOWEST (ALTHOUGH THE

GFS IS TRENDING SLOWER) AND THE GEM/ECMWF BEING THE FURTHER SOUTH

WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW (AND AGAIN THE GFS IS TRENDING

FURTHER SOUTH TOO). PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE CHRISTMAS

EVE... WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIP EXPECTED CHRISTMAS DAY (ALTHOUGH

THE SLOWER ECMWF DOES NOT BRING ANYTHING IN UNTIL THE EARLY

AFTERNOON ON CHRISTMAS DAY). THE MOST INTERESTING PART OF THE

FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE WHAT P-TYPE WE ARE GOING TO SEE WITH THIS

SYSTEM. PREVIOUS INDICATIONS WERE THIS WOULD BE A MOSTLY RAIN EVENT.

HOWEVER...WITH THE CURRENT TREND TO A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK...IT IS

STARTING TO TREND COLDER AND THEREFORE THE POSSIBILITY OF FROZEN

PRECIP IS INCREASING. THE GEM/ECMWF PREDOMINATE P-TYPE NOMOGRAMS

POINT TO A MOSTLY ALL SNOW EVENT...WHILE THE GFS PREDOMINATE P-TYPE

NOMOGRAM SHOWS A RAIN/SNOW MIX QUICKLY TRANSITING TO ALL SNOW. BEING

THIS IS DAY 5/6 AND THERE STILL IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE

MODELS...DO NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE MAKING MAJOR CHANGES TO THE

FORECAST. WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW FOR CHRISTMAS

DAY. THIS WILL HAVE TO MONITORED CLOSELY AS THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL

OF BECOMING A SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT IF MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND AS

THEY HAVE.

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Rob

Rob

Posted
Posted

Looks like the 6Z NAM is about to close the H5 feature off @ 54hours and is def south of its 00Z run. I would think that the key on timing is when the feature closes off and how it effects its speed. If it were slow I believe it would miss the northern stream.

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lilj4425

lilj4425

Posted
Posted

:thumbsup: GSP AFD which in my opinion is EXCELLENT:

AS OF 400 AM TUESDAY...LOTS TO TALK ABOUT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE AND

SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST AS CONFIDENCE IS

INCREASING THAT A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE FA ON

CHRISTMAS DAY.

MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES REGARDING

THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND TIMING OF PRECIP. THE GFS CONTINUES

TO FEATURE THE FURTHEST NORTH SOLUTION...BRINGING THE SURFACE LOW

DIRECTLY ACROSS THE FA FRIDAY NIGHT. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GEM AND

THE ECMWF AGREE NICELY ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW BUT DIFFER WITH

REGARDS TO PRECIP TIMING. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE SLOWEST OF

THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND FURTHEST SOUTH...TAKING THE LOW ALONG THE

GULF COAST AND NOT BRINGING THE BEST PRECIP INTO THE FA UNTIL

SATURDAY EVENING. THE ECMWF HAS SHOWN VERY GOOD RUN TO RUN

CONSISTENCY THOUGH IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT ITS MOST RECENT

RUN IS THE WETTEST YET. THE GEM HAS ALSO SHOWN EXCELLENT RUN TO RUN

CONSISTENCY AND ITS LOW TRACK IS ROUGHLY A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE

GFS AND ECMWF. THE GEM TAKES THE LOW ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND

EVENTUALLY TO NEAR CHARLESTON BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE GEM BRINGS

THE FIRST BATCH OF PRECIP INTO THE NC MOUNTAINS FRIDAY NIGHT...AND

THE MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACROSS THE FA SATURDAY MORNING AND

AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE EXCELLENT RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IN THE GEM AND

THE ECMWF...AND THE FACT THAT HPC CONTINUES TO FAVOR THIS TYPE OF

SOLUTION...THE FORECAST IS GENERALLY A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GEM

AND ECMWF FOR TIMING OF PRECIP AND PRECIP TYPE.

USING THE GEM/ECMWF SOLUTION RESULTS IN QUITE A DYNAMIC SYSTEM FOR

CHRISTMAS DAY. BOTH SHOW A VIGOROUS MID AND UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE

MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND PHASING WITH NORTHERN STREAM

ENERGY DIVING SOUTHWARD OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA. TIMING DIFFERENCES

BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS ARISE OUT OF THE FACT THAT THE GEM IS FURTHER

NORTH WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURE AND ALLOWS IT TO PHASE

SOONER. A SLUG OF UPPER LEVEL JET DIVERGENCE IS POISED TO MOVE

ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY SUPPORTING UVV. IN FACT...THE ECMWF

SHOWS A PRONOUNCED TONGUE OF LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS CROSSING THE

AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS COULD GIVE RISE TO SOME

BANDED FEATURES WITHIN THE PRECIP SHIELD...SUPPORTIVE OF A PERIOD OF

HEAVY PRECIP RATES. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES FROM BOTH MODELS ARE QUITE

COLD AND SUPPORTIVE OF ALL SNOW ACROSS ALMOST THE ENTIRE FA FROM

SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH THE END OF THE EVENT. FURTHERMORE...AN

INSPECTION OF MODEL SOUNDINGS REVEALS A NEAR ISOTHERMAL LAYER THAT

IS BELOW FREEZING OVER THE FA. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT AREAS

ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-85 WILL BE THE LAST TO CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW

AND COULD HANG ON TO RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX THE LONGEST. THE BOTTOM

LINE OF ALL THIS...THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL

RATES WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE FA IS

INCREASING.

THE SUNDAY AND MONDAY FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED. EXPECT VERY COLD

TEMPERATURES WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF VIGOROUS NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW

SHOWERS ALONG THE TENNESSEE BORDER COUNTIES. THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL

LIKELY RESULT IN HEAVY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE AREAS.

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Shawn

Shawn

Posted
Posted

Woke up real fast to catch up a little. So the UKMET is very close to the same track as last Feb 12/13's storm and the Euro wants to basically bomb this around the SC coastline? 850's are more than optimal at both and the rates would overcome any surface problems even down into the Central, SC areas? Wow.

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lilj4425

lilj4425

Posted
Posted

HPC update issued at 3:08am:

VALID 12Z SAT DEC 25 2010 - 12Z TUE DEC 28 2010

...CHRISTMAS WEEKEND NOREASTER STILL ON TRACK...

...MOIST PACIFIC JET SHIFTS AIM TO THE NORTHWEST COAST...

THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND PRESSURES FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 ARE

BASED ON THE 00Z/21 DETERMINISTIC ECMWF. THE GEM GLOBAL IS CLOSE

TO THE ECMWF WITH THE HANDLING OF THE WAVE CROSSING THE DEEP SOUTH

AND TURNING UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...SAVE A TIMING LEAD OF ABOUT

6 HOURS THROUGH DAY 5...AND A PULL TO THE LEFT INLAND THEREAFTER.

THE TREND IN ALL THE GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS HAS BEEN

SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM...DUE TO THE DISTURBANCE TAKING THE SCENIC

ROUTE...SO TO SPEAK...ALONG THE GULF COAST BEFORE HEADING TO THE

MID ATLANTIC WATERS. THE MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK OWES TO MUCH LESS

INTERACTION WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE DAKOTAS AND UPPER

MIDWEST...WHICH IS USUALLY THE CASE WHEN STRONG BLOCKS LIKE THE

ONE THIS MONTH REFLEX THEIR SUPPRESSIVE MIGHT. THE GFS TAKES UP

THE NORTHERN/FAST SIDE OF THE 00Z/21 GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...WITH THE

UKMET DEFINING THE SOUTHERN EDGE. THE ECMWF IS PREFERRED OVER THE

EAST DUE TO ITS SLOWER SOLUTION AND MORE CLIMATOLOGICAL LOW TRACK

ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE WARM WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE GULF

STREAM. THE ECMWF IS ALSO PREFERRED OVER THE WEST...PRIMARILY

BECAUSE ITS SEA LEVEL PRESSURES TEND TO VERIFY BEST AT THE MEDIUM

RANGE. THE REINTENSIFICATION OF THE EASTERN TROUGH/VORTEX SHOULD

SHUNT THE UPSTREAM FLOW COMING OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWARD TO THE

OREGON AND WASHINGTON COASTS THIS PERIOD AS PER THE ECMWF.

THE ECMWF TRACK OF THE EAST COAST CYCLONE WOULD HAVE HIGH IMPACT

OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 95

CORRIDOR FROM WASHINGTON TO BOSTON. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS THE

SLOW CRAWL OF THE MATURE STORM TOWARD THE ATLANTIC BENCHMARK SOUTH

OF LONG ISLAND THE DAY OR TWO AFTER CHRISTMAS. THIS PHASE OF THE

STORM WOULD COME ABOUT ONLY IF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH IS ABLE TO

CLOSE OFF...WHICH IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE IN THE STRONG BLOCKING

REGIME. WILL MANUALLY MOVE THE CENTER ALONG SLIGHTLY FASTER LATE

DAY 6 INTO DAY 7 THAN THE RAW ECMWF RUN WOULD INDICATE...BASED ON

THE WEIGHT OF THE ENSEMBLES AND OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS.

CISCO

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Shawn

Shawn

Posted
Posted

Columbia isn't biting any bullets yet. In fact in their almost 3am update, they left the long range untouched! KFFC on the other hand is being conservative but it's a start!

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA

314 AM EST TUE DEC 21 2010

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

EXTENDED PROGS SHOW THE NEXT PRECIP MAKER APPROACHING THE STATE

FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER

VALLEY. MODELS SHOW THE FRONT PUSHING INTO OUR AREA FRIDAY

NIGHT/SATURDAY. AGAIN IT APPEARS TO BE A "MOSTLY" RAIN EVENT.

HOWEVER...THICKNESSES COOL ENOUGH THAT WE COULD SEE LIGHT SNOW

ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT IN WRAP-

AROUND MOISTURE. MODELS SHOW THE FRONT WELL OFF THE ATLANTIC

COAST SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION AND

REMAINING DOMINATE INTO MID WEEK. LOOKING FOR A GOOD COOL DOWN

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. MODELS SHOWING TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 40S DURING

THE DAY AND LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

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superjames1992

superjames1992

Posted
Posted

RAH updated my forecast. They're starting to buy in and are gaining confidence! :)

Friday Night: A chance of rain and snow. Cloudy, with a low around 32. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Christmas Day: A chance of rain and snow. Cloudy, with a high near 35. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Saturday Night: A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 26. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

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lilj4425

lilj4425

Posted
Posted

I'm tired so this could be wrong. :lol: GFS starting to trend south possibly. Has the trough right over Memphis at hr96 of this run compared to being over southern Illinois at hr102 of last run.

edit: GFS holds its ground in later hours. Oh and GSP's forecast for Greenville:

Friday Night: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Christmas Day: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 32. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Saturday Night: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24. Chance of precipitation is 50%

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Shawn

Shawn

Posted
Posted

GFS starting to trend south possibly. Has it right over Memphis at hr96 of this run compared to being over southern Illinois at hr102 of last run.

Was just looking at that. Still going to be the most Northern solution at this point. From here on out I only want to pay attention to the 0 and 12z runs. The middle ones are pointless for now imo. The GFS will eventually come around to the UKMET/Euro solution. Those two models are most consistent.

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kennedy

kennedy

Posted
Posted

I would sacrifice my White Christmas for your mom if that were possible. My sister also has cancer.

I hope you(and your mom) get a White Christmas.

Praying for you both , hoping for a white Christmas that yo and your loved ones can enjoy!

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