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Christmas Storm II


Cold Rain

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Need the low to track about 100-200 miles south and SC will be in the game, hopefully temps wont be a problem but they are starting to make me concerned.

Well please no offense here but if you did that NC would be outa the game, Well most of central north and western NC south eastern and south centeral NC would still get some

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This system looks like a Jerry Peterson special for those who remember him from WSOC in the Charlotte market in the '80s. He would say, "for those who want to see snow, sit on this side of the room, and for those who don't, sit on this side"....and..."if the low (upper) coming out of Texas tracks to our north, it's all rain...it it tracks across Charlotte, it's a mix...if it tracks to our south, it's all snow."

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Foothills, do you think the Canadian is winding the SLP up a bit more than previous run...allowing warm to nose up? Looks a bit stronger @132 hrs as evidenced by it hugging the coast instead of going out to sea.

Thats what its doing. Going neg. tilt, if it happens to your east, you're good. Right now its placing the Carolinas and probably ne Ga in the sweet spot. I think it goes up the coast , or grazes the coast, with the stacking 5h over Ohio Valley, which will be close to give the MidAtlantic an Northeast a blizzard.

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Need the low to track about 100-200 miles south and SC will be in the game, hopefully temps wont be a problem but they are starting to make me concerned.

Well on some models, it wouldn't have to move south much, if at all, for the Pee Dee to see action. We're 5 days out, just pick whatever model suits you best and enjoy the fantasizing.

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I going to wait till Thursday morning. GFS is concerning, but I have exciting things in my regular life, so I think I'll focus on those and pick back up Thursday morning. Not that I won't check it, but I'm going to keep it minimal. Trends are mostly exciting, though. Even the OP GFS would give us rain to snow and a dusting to an inch or two, which isn't worse than what we've been getting. To be honest, a smaller storm like that might be nice so that I can drive to Raleigh and back on Christmas day for family events.

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Well on some models, it wouldn't have to move south much, if at all, for the Pee Dee to see action. We're 5 days out, just pick whatever model suits you best and enjoy the fantasizing.

Yeah, some had us on the edge like the canadian earlier but it absolutely pummeled us, put us under the deformation band. I just hope we can get a nice track where we have the precip and freezing temps. Where the only thing to worry about is when the flakes will start flying.

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I going to wait till Thursday morning. GFS is concerning, but I have exciting things in my regular life, so I think I'll focus on those and pick back up Thursday morning. Not that I won't check it, but I'm going to keep it minimal. Trends are mostly exciting, though. Even the OP GFS would give us rain to snow and a dusting to an inch or two, which isn't worse than what we've been getting. To be honest, a smaller storm like that might be nice so that I can drive to Raleigh and back on Christmas day for family events.

lol@ the GFS statement. You know when you're showing just the slight bit of optimism it's a good setup. I wish I had the patience to wait it out.

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Burger,

Like Jerms said, the soil temps and the snowpack will ultimately work wonders for better snow rates. :snowman:

Oh yea and the best part is if the timing stays the same it's a day event. I can't tell you how much I hate night snow events. I don't like relying on a lamp post to tell me how hard it's snowing. It's been a long time since we had a good day time event.

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Yeah, some had us on the edge like the canadian earlier but it absolutely pummeled us, put us under the deformation band. I just hope we can get a nice track where we have the precip and freezing temps. Where the only thing to worry about is when the flakes will start flying.

But really, how often does that happen? Not every storm is like Feb 2010.

I suspect for NE SC, it will be one of three familiar scenarios:

1) A brief change over up around Chesterfield/Bennettsville

2) Nail-biting setup with the rain/snow line setting up around Kingstree to Marion to Tabor City

3) Cold rain.

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Thats what its doing. Going neg. tilt, if it happens to your east, you're good. Right now its placing the Carolinas and probably ne Ga in the sweet spot. I think it goes up the coast , or grazes the coast, with the stacking 5h over Ohio Valley, which will be close to give the MidAtlantic an Northeast a blizzard.

Strong storm on that run of the Canadian for sure. Looks like the northern TN Valley will be mainly snow with rain/mix/snow in the central Valley - a decent event for NE TN on this run. Am I reading that correctly?

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If the GGEM worked out for NC and the northern Upstate like its showing, it would be the worst snowstorm here in a very long time for several reasons. One is the cold ground, extremely cold now. Two, the arctic blast coming in would cement everything and it would look like the Dakotas for a week or so.Winds, extreme wind chills and some subzero temps most likely in the piedmont. Unreal possibilty. I'm actually pulling for that extreme even though its probably overdone and would mess up next week's plans and really I'm already tired of the cold weather.

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Oh yea and the best part is if the timing stays the same it's a day event. I can't tell you how much I hate night snow events. I don't like relying on a lamp post to tell me how hard it's snowing. It's been a long time since we had a good day time event.

But nighttime sticks better. Last March it was a day snow here, and actually switched to rain due to the time of year and time of day. Plus, watching snow fall under the lamp post by the pine trees is a beautiful sight. So long as your power doesn't go out.

Gaffney Peach needs to wake up! Bet she has flurries...this is the first time I wish i was Gaston Fire college in a long time!

She works 3rd so she's seeing it if any is around Gaffney.

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I'm watching this one closely, because I have to travel from Charlotte to Hickory on Christmas morning for work (YAY). I haven't been following it too closely, but it seems like the storm keeps getting pushed farther and farther south.

BTW I used to post on easternuswx.com, and it's really good to know that there's another site.

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If the GGEM worked out for NC and the northern Upstate like its showing, it would be the worst snowstorm here in a very long time for several reasons. One is the cold ground, extremely cold now. Two, the arctic blast coming in would cement everything and it would look like the Dakotas for a week or so.Winds, extreme wind chills and some subzero temps most likely in the piedmont. Unreal possibilty. I'm actually pulling for that extreme even though its probably overdone and would mess up next week's plans and really I'm already tired of the cold weather.

Sounds delightful ! :thumbsup:

What you think of the snow up stream tonight on radar ? I had not even looked at radar till you said it was snowing. Surprise Surprise Surprise !!!

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If the GGEM worked out for NC and the northern Upstate like its showing, it would be the worst snowstorm here in a very long time for several reasons. One is the cold ground, extremely cold now. Two, the arctic blast coming in would cement everything and it would look like the Dakotas for a week or so.Winds, extreme wind chills and some subzero temps most likely in the piedmont. Unreal possibilty. I'm actually pulling for that extreme even though its probably overdone and would mess up next week's plans and really I'm already tired of the cold weather.

Yep, that would just be amazing to witness. A snow storm you would be telling young kids about 10 years down the road. At some point you have to think this is too good to be true with how every model outside of the GFS is blasting us.

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