michsnowfreak Posted December 4, 2014 Author Share Posted December 4, 2014 OMG! Just came to look at the board and all there is, is SOME gripin' about possibility of a warm Dec/little snow! You guys are a TRIP! It's the same people that were all gun-ho about a cold snowy winter last month. LMFAO. We just had a record cold/snowy winter with many behind it the last decade. You shouldn't be "in the wx biz" if you are like this every winter. Just for your info; Dec's in my analogues were by far the warmest with all together average over 30 degrees. Most were normal to above out of (6/10). And yes, there were some warm/blo norm snow Decembers>>> DETROIT A SEASON DEC N 1884-85 30.3 A 1895-96 29.7 L 1923-24 37.7 O 1925-26 27.0 G 1939-40 33.5 U 1963-64 23.8 E 1968-69 28.1 1977-78 25.5 W 1994-95 35.4 E 2004-05 29.7 A K Ave 30.1 NORM 30Y 30.1 E 0.0 Im guessing you are referring to the other threads lol, because I just made this thread because you know me, I love looking at weather history, the good and the bad. But yes...this is par for the course around here...an entire month is already declared dead by some before it has barely begun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Actually neither model shows high temps in record territory verbatum. Just a stretch of mildness (well we have to extrapolate the euro as its 10-day run does not show mild for Toronto or Detroit). I saw the Euro weeklies today and they do look promising for Christmas and beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 I saw the Euro weeklies today and they do look promising for Christmas and beyond. Indeed. If it verifies, it would be pretty consistent with 1939-40 as well as the Cohen analogs. I noticed 1877-8 has been discussed. For those who don't know, that was a strong El Niño. So, no shocker about the warmth in your region. Also, I saw 1923-4 mentioned. That was a weak El Niño. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Actually neither model shows high temps in record territory verbatum. Just a stretch of mildness (well we have to extrapolate the euro as its 10-day run does not show mild for Toronto or Detroit). Correct. It's not the kind of pattern to break records, it's the kind of pattern to bring low 40's and little precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 I saw the Euro weeklies today and they do look promising for Christmas and beyond. It's depressing to lose most of the month, but if it cracks around the 20th, I'd survive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Correct. It's not the kind of pattern to break records, it's the kind of pattern to bring low 40's and little precipitation. The worst. If its going to torch, bring on 50s and sunny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Indeed. If it verifies, it would be pretty consistent with 1939-40 as well as the Cohen analogs. I noticed 1877-8 has been discussed. For those who don't know, that was a strong El Niño. So, no shocker about the warmth in your region. Also, I saw 1923-4 mentioned. That was a weak El Niño. Was 1911-1912 an El Nino? Interestingly, I read somewhere that the high arctic was warm that winter while the mid latitudes were frigid, likely the result of a blocking pattern. I watched a TV show in 2012 which hypothesized that the warm arctic winter had resulted in more ice bergs in the North Atlantic in spring 1912, drifting further south than usual, into the transatlantic shipping lanes. One of those ice bergs, as we know, sank the Titanic. http://wallstreetpit.com/91099-did-arctic-warming-sink-titanic/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Here is a link to the May 1912 New York Times article describing the ice conditions in the North Atlantic that spring. http://query.nytimes.com/mem/archive-free/pdf?res=950DE4DC153CE633A25756C0A9639C946396D6CF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Was 1911-1912 an El Nino? Interestingly, I read somewhere that the high arctic was warm that winter while the mid latitudes were frigid, likely the result of a blocking pattern. I watched a TV show in 2012 which hypothesized that the warm arctic winter had resulted in more ice bergs in the North Atlantic in spring 1912, drifting further south than usual, into the transatlantic shipping lanes. One of those ice bergs, as we know, sank the Titanic. http://wallstreetpit.com/91099-did-arctic-warming-sink-titanic/ Wow, that's fascinating! Yes, it was an El Niño in 1911-2 (in/near low end moderate category). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxhstn74 Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Im guessing you are referring to the other threads lol, because I just made this thread because you know me, I love looking at weather history, the good and the bad. But yes...this is par for the course around here...an entire month is already declared dead by some before it has barely begun. LOL- No Josh, I'm referring to you too...after all, you started this post and I know how nuts you are about snow! Don't try to BLAME other posters here....LMFAO! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 We saw the crappy pattern coming almost 15 days out... So if the pattern looks like crap 15 days out, it's not all that crazy to think it might suck in 15 days from now. That takes us through the 20th. I hope to see some type of signal on the GFS soon or else I might have to toss the whole month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 5, 2014 Author Share Posted December 5, 2014 LOL- No Josh, I'm referring to you too...after all, you started this post and I know how nuts you are about snow! Don't try to BLAME other posters here....LMFAO! You must be misunderstanding then. I am not trying to blame BLAME others for anything, but I am one of the last people on this board to freak out because a model run is mild (I have been labeled too optimistic in fact). This thread has NOTHING to do with griping about it being a warm/snowless December. I may love snow but you of all people know my interest in climate data, and that means looking at the extremes of both ends of the spectrum, not just the cold/snow. So with all the warm December talk that HAS infiltrated this board, I thought it was interesting to see what a real December inferno looked like, and thought it extra interesting that the warmest Decembers were all long ago (and with xmacis all that stuff is readily available online). I never forecasted a cold, snowy winter in November, I am not forecasting a mild winter now, I never forecasted ANY kind of winter, because I do not make any attempt at forecasting. I listen to what others who have forecasting experience say based on indices, analogs, etc and go from there. Remember, if I were making any guess at this winter, my gut all along said this was going to be a horrendously crappy winter. That gut feeling was the law of averages...following up a record winter like last year with a terrible one (think 1880-81 & 1881-82...or 1981-82 & 1982-83) plus all the talk earlier in the year about a super Nino. Then in the early Fall the farmers almanac went viral and the "in thing" was forecasting a harsh winter. After reading almost every outlook go for a cold winter, yeah my "gut feeling" changed....but I do not and will not be forecasting anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 LOL- No Josh, I'm referring to you too...after all, you started this post and I know how nuts you are about snow! Don't try to BLAME other posters here....LMFAO! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 lolBilly deeds is a different one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Well this thread took an interesting turn... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxhstn74 Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 LOL - I'm sure many here are glad to see long term models are reverting back to cold. Maybe with a little luck, we'll get a white Xmas. Hang in there snowbunnies...I like snow too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 10, 2014 Author Share Posted December 10, 2014 LOL - I'm sure many here are glad to see long term models are reverting back to cold. Maybe with a little luck, we'll get a white Xmas. Hang in there snowbunnies...I like snow too. The key too is they look more active in the longterm. The long feared torch is going to end up a few much delayed days with highs in the 40s to maybe 50. Nothing for December standards, actually quite normal to have a few such days. White Christmas climo is about 50/50 as you know...and thats about what Id go with for predictions right now...50/50. Let it snow! Flakes were in the air during 12 days in Nov...and just 2 so far in Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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