donsutherland1 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Some of Tom Brady’s remarks from this afternoon’s press conference could well fit what we have experienced in this subforum in recent days: About his reaction to the ECMWF’s explosive 1/21 12z run: Brady: "I was as surprised as anyone..." About the unfavorable model trends (warming at mid-levels + lack of qpf in interior sections): Brady: "I'd like to know what happened as you all would too.” About the wide range of thinking and robust debate concerning the upcoming storm: Brady: "I was very comfortable as far as I know saying that nobody did something wrong." About whether WPC maps should be posted: Brady: "I believe in fair play." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 you predicted ots and got embarrased this is far from that... He kind of did both. He also told a poster to "grease up his shovel for 1-3 inches of slop." That prediction is almost prescient. I have no clue why people simply refuse to acknowledge that DM has done better prognosticating in the medium-range than most professionals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Some of Tom Brady’s remarks from this afternoon’s press conference could well fit what we have experienced in this subforum in recent days: About his reaction to the ECMWF’s explosive 1/21 12z run: Brady: "I was as surprised as anyone..." About the unfavorable model trends (warming at mid-levels + lack of qpf in interior sections): Brady: "I'd like to know what happened as you all would too.” About the wide range of thinking and robust debate concerning the upcoming storm: Brady: "I was very comfortable as far as I know saying that nobody did something wrong." About whether WPC maps should be posted: Brady: "I believe in fair play." Lol, that's classic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 He kind of did both. He also told a poster to "grease up his shovel for 1-3 inches of slop." That prediction is almost prescient. I have no clue why people simply refuse to acknowledge that DM has done better prognosticating in the medium-range than most professionals. dude he doesnt forecast...he posts free maps of the gfs so as long as that model performs good he does as well and if it starts not to he will be wrong ur clueless... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Some of Tom Brady’s remarks from this afternoon’s press conference could well fit what we have experienced in this subforum in recent days: About his reaction to the ECMWF’s explosive 1/21 12z run: Brady: "I was as surprised as anyone..." About the unfavorable model trends (warming at mid-levels + lack of qpf in interior sections): Brady: "I'd like to know what happened as you all would too.” About the wide range of thinking and robust debate concerning the upcoming storm: Brady: "I was very comfortable as far as I know saying that nobody did something wrong." About whether WPC maps should be posted: Brady: "I believe in fair play." Hahaha awesome Don and very true. The only thing that is the opposite of that situation is that many times the totals here are INFLATED .....though lately our hopes become deflated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 dude he doesnt forecast...he posts free maps of the gfs so as long as that model performs good he does as well and if it starts not to he will be wrong ur clueless... The maps are his forecasts. He posts the ones he thinks represent the logical outcome. He was wrong about out to sea, but he also implied that if the storm hit, it wouldn't work out the way we wanted. It's simply too warm. His forecast was "snow-is-a-no-go." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 The maps are his forecasts. He posts the ones he thinks represent the logical outcome. He was wrong about out to sea, but he also implied that if the storm hit, it wouldn't work out the way we wanted. It's simply too warm. His forecast was "snow-is-a-no-go." I, for one, am very interested in seeing what he thinks about Monday's likely snooze-fest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Some of Tom Brady’s remarks from this afternoon’s press conference could well fit what we have experienced in this subforum in recent days: About his reaction to the ECMWF’s explosive 1/21 12z run: Brady: "I was as surprised as anyone..." About the unfavorable model trends (warming at mid-levels + lack of qpf in interior sections): Brady: "I'd like to know what happened as you all would too.” About the wide range of thinking and robust debate concerning the upcoming storm: Brady: "I was very comfortable as far as I know saying that nobody did something wrong." About whether WPC maps should be posted: Brady: "I believe in fair play." nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 dude he doesnt forecast...he posts free maps of the gfs so as long as that model performs good he does as well and if it starts not to he will be wrong ur clueless...He very specifically stated that his call was for the storm to go OTS, but we're all wrong sometimes when it comes to the weather so it's not a big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 He kind of did both. He also told a poster to "grease up his shovel for 1-3 inches of slop." That prediction is almost prescient. I have no clue why people simply refuse to acknowledge that DM has done better prognosticating in the medium-range than most professionals. Dude , you must have missed his entire forecast over the last week . 7 days of OTS . 1.3 inches of liquid is going to fall on the coastal plain . .8 at KNYC IT WAS AN AWFUL FORECAT . AWFUL IN EVERY WAY The fact that the mid level warm because the storm GOES TO THE BM and doesn't close off is in direct opposition to his forecast OF OTS . Explain to us what you don`t see . Because you don`t snow , you don`t hand out the cry baby prize as some kind of default gesture . OTS IS $%^& OTS and 1.3 inches of liquid in Monmouth and Suffolk county turns out that was a turd of a forecast . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Dude , you must have missed his entire forecast over the last week . 7 days of OTS . 1.3 inches of liquid is going to fall on the coastal plain . .8 at KNYC IT WAS AN AWFUL FORECAT . AWFUL IN EVERY WAY The fact that the mid level warm because the storm GOES TO THE BM is in direct opposition to his forecast OF OTS . Explain to us what you don`t see . Because you don`t snow , you don`t hand out the cry baby prize as some kind of default gesture . OTS IS $%^& OTS and 1.3 inches in Monmouth and Suffolk county turns out that was a turd of a forecast . I saw. He hugged the original prognostication of the GFS. But he also made it clear that his forecast was no snow. Even as the GFS started shifting, he said no snow. Maybe he's right for the wrong reason, but he went head-to-head with DT over the T-Day storm and won that battle. He's right about the pattern. This is not a snow pattern. The gates could open and flood the US with arctic air and a storm could spin up from the Gulf -- it still would find a way to rain in this craptastic pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I saw. He hugged the original prognostication of the GFS. But he also made it clear that his forecast was no snow. Even as the GFS started shifting, he said no snow. Maybe he's right for the wrong reason, but he went head-to-head with DT over the T-Day storm and won that battle. He's right about the pattern. This is not a snow pattern. The gates could open and flood the US with arctic air and a storm could spin up from the Gulf -- it still would find a way to rain in this craptastic pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 You may be right. Let's see how Monday goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Dude . I have to use that down the road . Will give u cred . #$%^& CLASSIC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I saw. He hugged the original prognostication of the GFS. But he also made it clear that his forecast was no snow. Even as the GFS started shifting, he said no snow. Maybe he's right for the wrong reason, but he went head-to-head with DT over the T-Day storm and won that battle. He's right about the pattern. This is not a snow pattern. The gates could open and flood the US with arctic air and a storm could spin up from the Gulf -- it still would find a way to rain in this craptastic pattern. Bluewave got this right . Period . Tommy is my boy , but wrong is wrong . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 You may be right. Let's see how Monday goes. Im not right about anything. But theres a word for "being right for the wrong reason". Its called "wrong". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Bluewave got this right . Period . Tommy is my boy , but wrong is wrong . BTW, I agree that Bluewave was 100% on this, and some people were quite nasty when he raised concerns about their lofty predictions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Dude , you must have missed his entire forecast over the last week . 7 days of OTS . 1.3 inches of liquid is going to fall on the coastal plain . .8 at KNYC IT WAS AN AWFUL FORECAT . AWFUL IN EVERY WAY The fact that the mid level warm because the storm GOES TO THE BM and doesn't close off is in direct opposition to his forecast OF OTS . Explain to us what you don`t see . Because you don`t snow , you don`t hand out the cry baby prize as some kind of default gesture . OTS IS $%^& OTS and 1.3 inches of liquid in Monmouth and Suffolk county turns out that was a turd of a forecast . Well, the OTS forecast is without a doubt wrong. It is obvious that this one is not just going out to sea. However, his persistence in regards to the steering flow of this pattern cannot be denied either. It is part of the reason that this storm will have such trouble coming together in time for us. As referenced yesterday I believe in another thread, betting "against the house" is risky and in most cases you will lose. Betting on a major winter storm in our areas is going against the house and is even riskier when the pattern is not ripe for one. The rich do get richer. On the opposite end of it, forecasts calling for a system that would be too amped and truly ride the coast, turning most of us to rain, would be wrong as well. All in all, I don't think anyone really had a perfect forecast for this one (blue wave did well), but those who erred on the side of caution and have not bet against the house were and will likely to continue to be more successful in this forecasting game lol. You've done a great job I have to say, and I enjoy the little debates between you guys, among others Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 the national anthem has not been sung and yet ....the bashing continues any accumulating precip will be on the water in the ocean out to sea not in the New York Harbor or NYC period thats my updated call jealousy rears it ugly head and its is shameful coming from the BOYS WHO CRY EURO and created a shi-t storm in the thread 53 year old man gets internet bullied for his opinion on snow????? we are a freakin sad sad group of fools I wont hang here again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 This winter sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Thats the 3rd time youve threatened to not post here anymore recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 [quote name="Doorman" post="3279548" timestamp="1421970238" I wont hang here again I hope that's not true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 This winter sucks I second the motion. Who wants to start talking 2015-2016? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 2015-16 is going to rock! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Thats the 3rd time youve threatened to not post here anymore recently. Third times a charm the floor is yours...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 2015-16 is going to rock! Oy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Thats the 3rd time youve threatened to not post here anymore recently. People like to tell everyone that their leaving before actually leaving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I rate this winter down there with 2011-2012, maybe even worse because of the hype and expectations. I didn't think mega-blockbuster, but I thought we'd get more than 3.5 inches. And to make things even worse, we've actually had some cold air. Ah, well, c'est la vie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Give me a break . Saying BW is right and OTS is wrong is fine . I posted this AM that I WAS WRONG because I bought the Euro yesterday and its 6 inches on Long Island under the CCB band . If the N shore of Nassau County gets 4 inches Sat from the front end does that make me right ? No I get there the wrong way and am willing to take my lumps . No offense its weather , and whatever anyone thinks of me is probably a compliment compared to what a DB I am . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robPAwx Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Jeez so many negative posts.. Calm down, we still have a good month left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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