Mophstymeo Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 What I find interesting is that folks in the NE forum are saying this run of the Euro isn't that different in its track. I find it so interesting that people can look at same data output and interpret it so differently; it's back to my tea leaves / Harry Potter allusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 What I find interesting is that folks in the NE forum are saying this run of the Euro isn't that different in its track. I find it so interesting that people can look at same data output and interpret it so differently; it's back to my tea leaves / Harry Potter allusion. The difference was at h5 with the phase. Its makes all the difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 What I find interesting is that folks in the NE forum are saying this run of the Euro isn't that different in its track. I find it so interesting that people can look at same data output and interpret it so differently; it's back to my tea leaves / Harry Potter allusion. There are many factors that go into things like QPF output...barometric depth of the surface cyclone and, of course, how close you are to it (i.e. track)...but there are also more subtle factors as well...things sometimes overlooked by the general public...and this will invariably include whether or not favorable conditions exist aloft to generate copious moisture outputs...the area that receives the heaviest precipitation is the one in which the amount of vertical motion is also most pronounced...lift is absolutely elemental to the equation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 There are many factors that go into things like QPF output...barometric depth of the surface cyclone and, of course, how close you are to it (i.e. track)...but there are also more subtle factors as well...things sometimes overlooked by the general public...and this will invariably include whether or not favorable conditions exist aloft to generate copious moisture outputs...the area that receives the heaviest precipitation is the one in which the amount of vertical motion is also most pronounced...lift is absolutely elemental to the equation. I think it's those subtle factors that have thrown everyone's LR and even short-term forecasts off. Some got so caught up in analogs and SAIs and teleconnections and whatnot, they saw the larger picture without actually seeing the smaller pieces as well. Kind of like looking at an assembled jig-saw without seeing the seams where the pieces fit together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I think it's those subtle factors that have thrown everyone's LR and even short-term forecasts off. Some got so caught up in analogs and SAIs and teleconnections and whatnot, they saw the larger picture without actually seeing the smaller pieces as well. Kind of like looking at an assembled jig-saw without seeing the seams where the pieces fit together. There are two elements that must be gravely considered in any long range forecast. One, the climatological normal. You can have every single long range index look absolutely perfect...but predicting 200% of average annual snowfall for any jurisdiction is still a very risky thing to do...it just does not happen all that often...otherwise, it would not be 200% of the average...lol. Secondly, these long range indexes are not absolute guarantees that there will be a snowy winter...they provide us with guidance that one *may* take place...and historically speaking...when said indexes are in a particular alignment...snow chances were in fact augmented...but in a place like NYC...which averages not very much snow each winter anyway...sometimes factors as vaporous as random chance supersede everything else. In a place like the Sierras...if an El Nino is forecast....well, we can say with certainty it will be an above normal winter snow wise because we know El Nino's are good for producing wet winters out west...and things like rain v snow are never in question in the western mountains...all the winter precip will be snow above a certain elevation contour. But around these parts...too many other factors come into play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 GFS model = new king of coastal storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 GFS model = new king of coastal storms How, when the GFS was sending this out to sea? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 How, when the GFS was sending this out to sea? GFS failed miserably on the thanksgiving storm this year.. Basically our only snow producing coastal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Well another ..day..of model..madness ahead ..IMO ...I for one am not thinking ..accumulations ...let's iron out some details ..track ..boundary layer temps etc etc etc..just for the heck of it I went to AccuWeather.. They did not issue snow map ..yet ..they said would issue one soon..they are being less hype filled shocker ...anyhow ..curious to see how next Monday or Tue event plays out as well ..some say it will have colder air to work with ..dam ..if we had blocking here and a -nao those 10-20 inch snow fall predictions would not sound crxy ooo well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Overnight, the ECMWF backed off somewhat from its prolific qpf numbers while the 6z GFS shifted strongly toward the earlier ECMWF numbers.Today will probably see a convergence of the guidance (and the 6z GFS relative to the 0z run might hint at the start of such convergence). The AO has begun to rise and will likely be positive for the onset of the storm. The historical experience and guidance all suggest a moderate impact is more likely than a major one. My current qpf thoughts (which have changed little from yesterday): < 0.25": Poughkeepsie Scranton 025"-0.75": Baltimore Bridgeport Hartford (added to the mix) New York City Newark Philadelphia Washington, DC (IAD and DCA) > 0.75": Boston (moved up from 0.25"-0.75" Islip Providence The push of warm air as the storm approaches the region will result in at least some rain and mixing. Hence, my initial thinking is that cities such as Baltimore, Newark, New York, Philadelphia, and Washington will probably see a 3"-6" snowfall. Boston and Worcester might see 4"-8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 It's not out of the realm of possibility that we miss out mostly on both the Saturday and Monday storm. The Saturday storm looks warm ad progressive while the Monday storm may trend further north favoring New England more than here. People need to be realistic and not count their chickens. Oh and P.S. PB GFI I never got my clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 It's not out of the realm of possibility that we miss out mostly on both the Saturday and Monday storm. The Saturday storm looks warm ad progressive while the Monday storm may trend further north favoring New England more than here. People need to be realistic and not count their chickens. Oh and P.S. PB GFI I never got my clipper. Negative Sno at it again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 surprised no discussion on the canadian model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 surprised no discussion on the canadian model It just started running. What you saw in other thread is the RGEM which only runs out to 48 hours and is seperate from the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 It just started running. What you saw in other thread is the RGEM which only runs out to 48 hours and is seperate from the GGEM. So far it looks to be following the GFS much better precip shield but warmer for the Coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 So far it looks to be following the GFS much better precip shield but warmer for the Coast Are we surprised? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Are we surprised? GFS has been money with storm. Kudos to it snuffing out the off shore track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 GFS has been money with storm. Kudos to it snuffing out the off shore track. I'm gonna wait for the 12z euro before I give out any credit to the GFS lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 GFS has been money with storm. Kudos to it snuffing out the off shore track. You dont know what you are looking at , there`almost an inch of liquid to KNYC . It does not close off . It`s not EAST in the least . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Just doesnt want to snow more than 1 or 2 inches a pop this year. Go with the seasonal trend and you'll only be wrong once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYY_2 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 guaranteed doorman claims victory even tho he's still wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 guaranteed doorman claims victory even tho he's still wrong You know you can put people on ignore if you so desire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Outside of Long Island/Boroughs, wouldn't the progressive nature of the pattern prevent substantial mixing issues, however reduce snow totals? I was of the opinion that if the GFS is onto something (I lean on the euro) with a more easterly track, that the onshore flow associated with the storm would be muted. Just trying to learn. Thanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Outside of Long Island/Boroughs, wouldn't the progressive nature of the pattern prevent substantial mixing issues, however reduce snow totals? I was of the opinion that if the GFS is onto something (I lean on the euro) with a more easterly track, that the onshore flow associated with the storm would be muted. Just trying to learn. Thanks in advance. As PB GFI said before the track is not east.. The low never closes off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I do hope we get something out of the next two events otherwise next week is just going to suck with all that very cold, dry air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I do hope we get something out of the next two events otherwise next week is just going to suck with all that very cold, dry air. I'm pretty confident we will see something. Just won't be back to back blockbusters. That's very uncommon around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Future cast is a joke. I think it's irresponsible to even show it as it was just shown on network tv. It has zero snow across the entire area Saturday zero anywhere including way NW. And it does show 1" of precip so it's not an issue of a miss. You would think after people died last Sunday it might not be advisable to show that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Future cast is a joke. I think it's irresponsible to even show it as it was just shown on network tv. It has zero snow across the entire area Saturday zero anywhere including way NW. And it does show 1" of precip so it's not an issue of a miss. You would think after people died last Sunday it might not be advisable to show that Sunday was nuts. Just goes to show how a "minimal" event can be an outright disaster. Given the way the winter has gone I think the public was just unprepared. The first winter event is usually the most costly as far as injuries and accidents. The fact we didn't have a real significant event for almost 2 months prior probably had a lot of influence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 let the healing begin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 let the healing begin you predicted ots and got embarrased this is far from that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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