Doorman Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Weenie suicide alert when Euro backs off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I heard that the CMC brought the storm to the se. If the EURO caves to the GFS this subforum will have a meltdown the likes of which we've never experienced before. Edit: Just saw your post above Morris. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 the truth is amateurs put all their hope in OP runs that give them the most snow and the contempt is hilarious HPC Upton Mt Holly never bit that hard on this system the GEFS Spag model is MONEY dm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 the truth is amateurs put all their hope in OP runs that give them the most snow and the contempt is hilarious HPC Upton Mt Holly never bit that hard on this system the GEFS Spag model is MONEY dm Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 the GEFS Spag model is MONEY dm ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 the truth is amateurs put all their hope in OP runs that give them the most snow and the contempt is hilarious HPC Upton Mt Holly never bit that hard on this system the GEFS Spag model is MONEY dm But they did bite on the clipper-that-never-was, so what the NWS does or doesn't bite on three days out isn't necessarily indicative of anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 ? http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model%20Guidance&model=GEFS-SPAG&area=ATLANTIC&ps=area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Yes and no. People who have become jaded and cynical by this winter won't go nuclear. And if this storm does pan out . . . Great! But I'm not holding my breath. It either goes out sea or turns into a slop-fest with intermittent cold rain. I'd rather OTS; I've had my fill of cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Let's fast forward to next Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Let's fast forward to next Tuesday. Play the odds. This crap-storm will probably do something atmospherically to screw up Tuesday's event. The House always wins. (Not that I'm bitter or anything . . .) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Lol Those spaghetti plots which had the storm not even making a turn up the coast whatsoever have miraculously disappeared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 the truth is amateurs put all their hope in OP runs that give them the most snow and the contempt is hilarious HPC Upton Mt Holly never bit that hard on this system the GEFS Spag model is MONEY dm Ikr. Why go with the Euro ensembles when you have the gfs package?....oh wait Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Keep 'em in their sockets...with just 20 inches or so of snow coming to the Park this winter (per my spot on forecast)...the next 4 months of banter on this board is going to reach new heights in lol worthiness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Lot of dropping footballs at the 1 yard line both ways with this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Lot of dropping footballs at the 1 yard line both ways with this event. Probably under-inflated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Lot of dropping footballs at the 1 yard line both ways with this event. True. It ain't over till Saturday night technically, but I can't imagine this works out the way we (snow-lovers) want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 At least Shelly Silver is being arrested tomorrow. It's his fault that it's not snowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Keep 'em in their sockets...with just 20 inches or so of snow coming to the Park this winter (per my spot on forecast)...the next 4 months of banter on this board is going to reach new heights in lol worthiness. We'll be lucky to hit 10" at the rate we're going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Probably under-inflated.lol'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Here's Joe Cioffi on Sat's "event": So far all the major models have trended east. The problem is the vortex in Eastern Canada which is suppressing the storm further east. While this is colder it also cuts precip back We will wait for the European. If it does the same idea then things will be scaled back in the forecasts The atmosphere can only support so much with big features dominating the flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 If anything is a lock is that the cold will be here to stay. After this weekend highs will struggle to get out of the 30's and lows will frequently be in the lower teens or colder if there's snow cover. I refuse to believe we don't receive more snow this month given the -4 or lower temperature departures, the well above normal precip for the month, and under 4" of snow to date. Stats suggest we should add at least another 10" of snowfall this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Let the kaboom begin . . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 OUCH... From the EURO....my early call 3-6 inches for NYC may have to be lowered to 2-4 inches...or less... BUT...AT LEAST there seems to be "potential events" in the future so... I hold to my previous statements...I still say NYC ends up with a 20+ winter when all is said and done.. HECK. .trends can reverse again tomm.. doubtful...but ya never know.. MAYBE was a BAD RUN...due to "BAD data" didn't initialize properly ..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 OUCH... From the EURO....my early call 3-6 inches for NYC may have to be lowered to 2-4 inches...or less... BUT...AT LEAST there seems to be "potential events" in the future so... I hold to my previous statements...I still say NYC ends up with a 20+ winter when all is said and done.. HECK. .trends can reverse again tomm.. doubtful...but ya never know.. MAYBE was a BAD RUN...due to "BAD data" didn't initialize properly ..lol No, I don't think it's a bad run. That might sense for one model, but all of them have changed their tune tonight -- except the GFS. Plus, the models have had the chance to sample the energy better tonight now that part of the storm is no longer hypothetical and has formed over Texas. I believe that as we move closer to Saturday, the storm gets further downgraded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 No, I don't think it's a bad run. That might sense for one model, but all of them have changed their tune tonight -- except the GFS. Plus, the models have had the chance to sample the energy better tonight now that part of the storm is no longer hypothetical and has formed over Texas. I believe that as we move closer to Saturday, the storm gets further downgraded. I think its more or less a certainty that there will be a period of accumulating snow on Saturday...probably with the heavier amounts out over Long Island and SNE...will see how it goes...but these run to run model variations are nothing out of the ordinary...it would be strange if they did not occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Agreed Pamela ..models do waffle ..no one model should be considered final solution.. At least there is something to track .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I think its more or less a certainty that there will be a period of accumulating snow on Saturday...probably with the heavier amounts out over Long Island and SNE...will see how it goes...but these run to run model variations are nothing out of the ordinary...it would be strange if they did not occur. I cede to you on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Agreed Pamela ..models do waffle ..no one model should be considered final solution.. At least there is something to track .. I'd put the chances at about 95% there will be some snow on Saturday...this is not November or late March...but rather very close to the best time of the year climatologically for snow...late January through the middle of February...TWT if it is just a small or moderate event or a more memorable one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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