robertgny Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 We got a split flow in the west....neg ao....pos pna/epo....and a strong upper low in se canada. Also there are 2 energies working in tandem here....don't know if they phase...but the upper low in se canada will slow the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 BRIAN and SNOSKI must be punished for making us read through 6 weeks of BAT %^& CRAZY winters over and this winter sucks disco . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 BRIAN and SNOSKI must be punished for making us read through 6 weeks of BAT %^& CRAZY winters over and this winter sucks disco . Careful don't count your chickens before they hatch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cjr231 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Lol yes. Snowshield over SnoSki and Doorman's houses please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cjr231 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 The GFS gave us zero precip 2 days before Sunday's event which wound up giving us over 2 inches of precipitation area wide. The fact that people are living and dying by this model is laughable. Understand its biases, and pay attention to what its spitting out for sure. But stop taking it for face value or you're doing it wrong. Just going to quote myself since people are cliff diving in the main thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Well, it's a battle of the models. Even if the Euro proves more correct than the GFS, I think it was a mistake to uncork the bottle so quickly. People have been speaking about this storm as a "snowstorm" as though it's a foregone conclusion. If the GFS is right, it's out to sea; if the Euro is right, there may be serious mixing issues. In any event, Doorman has a very good chance of verifying in that this weekend's storm just might not work out the way people want. Sadly. Then again, I'd be very happy to be wrong in this, but this is the winter of crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 It's only crystalized water. Geez. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 On February 2nd, the Groundhog will fail to see his shadow; thus insuring six more weeks of extended autumn... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 It's only crystalized water. Geez. But it's soooooo pretty! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 On February 2nd, the Groundhog will fail to see his shadow; thus insuring six more weeks of extended autumn... Ha! This winter stinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I want to marry mrs navgem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Just going to quote myself since people are cliff diving in the main thread. Yep, it went from zilch to over an inch for the 1/19 system over the course of 2 runs (00z to 12z) for MBY on the 16th. That was 3 days prior that it corrected, so at the very least, I wouldn't go crazy over what it's showing as of now considering the consensus developing among the other models. It'll be interesting to see what happens with the GFS as the event gets closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Got a bad feeling about tonight's model runs hope I'm wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Why do people even look at the NAM? Honestly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I think ..the Nam first off..still out of range ..second off..Nam ..gfs ..in my eyes outlier ..let's see what euro ..shows....no matter what solutions are presented ..tonight .I still believe by tomm night oz suite ...things get much clearer.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Permission to speak candidly... If we see the EURO, its 51 ensembles, its control model, the CMC, its 21 ensembles, and the JMA all cave tonight, there is going to be an epic meltdown that this sub-forum probably wont be able to handle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Ha ha meltdown incoming tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 On February 2nd, the Groundhog will fail to see his shadow; thus insuring six more weeks of extended autumn... Currently watching High Anxiety. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Permission to speak candidly... If we see the EURO, its 51 ensembles, its control model, the CMC, its 21 ensembles, and the JMA all cave tonight, there is going to be an epic meltdown that this sub-forum probably wont be able to handle. That would likely be more entertaining then the storm itself. So we win either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 That would likely be more entertaining then the storm itself. So we win either way. We would probably have to shut down the sub-forum. The b'ing and moaning would be beyond unbearable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Well if anyone is going to take the GFS verbatim.....then we're in for a long duration 6-10" snow event the next day after the chance the weekend storm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Ha ha meltdown incoming tonight If it misses then it misses big deal. We've been disappointed so far I would think we'd all be used to it by now. Unless the 12z Euro was a blip run I find it hard to believe it would bite the bullet in this range. I think it will shift east somewhat though. At this juncture I would expect a moderate storm of about 3-6/4-8 right now very similar to the storms of last season and the current pattern fits that mold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Well if anyone is going to take the GFS verbatim.....then we're in for a long duration 6-10" snow event the next day after the chance the weekend storm.... Not this winter. Every storm so far seems to be 5 days away. Once this one whiffs/grazes/slops, the next one will also find a way to go out to sea. This is the winter of our discontent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Not this winter. Every storm so far seems to be 5 days away. Once this one whiffs/grazes/slops, the next one will also find a way to go out to sea. This is the winter of our discontent. I disagree. That hasn't been our pattern really.....once this one misses, the next one will be rain, followed by a 1/2" clipper, another miss, rain, etc lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I disagree. That hasn't been our pattern really.....once this one misses, the next one will be rain, followed by a 1/2" clipper, another miss, rain, etc lol I stand corrected. This why I don't understand why people are giving Doorman such a hard time. He's betting that the house wins. (And it usually does.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I stand corrected. This why I don't understand why people are giving Doorman such a hard time. He's betting that the house wins. (And it usually does.)EXACTLY. There's a reason why we're impacted by so many different types of storm systems every winter, yet only average 20-30" for most of us.....Because the fact of the matter is that a significant storm is never "likely". If they were, then the storms that do hit us wouldn't be significant.....NOT getting them would Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 The upcoming pattern is starting to resemble last year with a negative EPO/WPO and +NAO. The +AO has gone down and is starting to fluctuate more. Anytime the AO experiences a drop watch out for something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 The upcoming pattern is starting to resemble last year with a negative EPO/WPO and +NAO. The +AO has gone down and is starting to fluctuate more. Anytime the AO experiences a drop watch out for something. Point taken, but I'm beginning to learn that analogs aren't the best way to see future outcomes. It's like those disclaimers on financial services commercials: "Prior performance is no indication of future results." There's so much that goes into our weather that mere superficial similarities in a pattern do not necessarily mean a repeat of previous events. I think this why the SAI and the OPI have been a fail this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 And the cmc is pretty dry lol 0-3 so far tonight just had a feeling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Weenie suicide alert when Euro backs off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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