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Winter 2014-15 Banter Thread

Stormlover74

By Stormlover74,
in New York City Metro

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IsentropicLift

IsentropicLift

Posted
Posted

So depressing when we are getting another coastal rainstorm in mid winter. Whether the storms cut or are offshore we still end up screwed.

Even sadder is the thread for it. We should be hoping for less rain not more of it. How exactly is doubling the rainfall by the models a good thing?

First of all not everyone here thinks that rain is a bad thing, no matter the month or time of the year.

 

Secondly, surface temps are the only thing holding Western sections back from a good snowstorm.

 

It may be rain for your backyard or mostly rain but that's no reason to poo poo a storm thread.

 

All you've done this Winter is become the biggest troll in here, congrats. And when we do get the big snowstorm this year, I hope that for whatever reason you miss it.

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LongBeachSurfFreak

LongBeachSurfFreak

Posted
Posted

So depressing when we are getting another coastal rainstorm in mid winter. Whether the storms cut or are offshore we still end up screwed.

Even sadder is the thread for it. We should be hoping for less rain not more of it. How exactly is doubling the rainfall by the models a good thing?

Why do you have ski in you're name?

If you did ski you would certainly be routing for more qpf output. Above 2k and 100 miles north of the city and this is a solid dump. Personally I don't snow board on Long Island but I do in Vermont and upstate. So as much as I want snow here at least there's snow there

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rsteff

rsteff

Posted
Posted

Blizzard of 96 like snowstorm will impact us next Saturday.    Strong energy dropping from the nw will be forced to cut underneath the mid week clipper. High amplitude West Ridge is likely to create a monster east coast trough.     jma_z500_mslp_us_9.pngjma_T850_us_9.png

Quite a statement. Hope you are correct

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WintersGrasp

WintersGrasp

Posted
Posted

Blizzard of 96 like snowstorm will impact us next Saturday. Strong energy dropping from the nw will be forced to cut underneath the mid week clipper. High amplitude West Ridge is likely to create a monster east coast trough. jma_z500_mslp_us_9.pngjma_T850_us_9.png

I think it'll be time to start honking when the JMA doesn't show a blizzard when it notices a coastal with some cold air
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robertgny

robertgny

Posted
Posted

30 inches at night 30 inches during the day 30 inches at night. Hope that happens one day here.

Yep the discussion says 5" of rain.....so for Rainier that'd be snow.....20:1 ratio = 100 inches, 30:1 ratio = 150 inches. However.....with temps in the single digits or lower, 40:1 ratios are very possible...SO...200 inches lol

Not bad !!

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NYCSNOWMAN2020

NYCSNOWMAN2020

Posted
Posted

Folks, I know things have not turned out the way so far snow fans want ..a lousy 3.2 inches thus far NYC ..my gut tells me ..by .march 15..we have a total 2o-25 inches NYC ..how will that occur ?? Will it be 2 storms somewhere in the future or will it take 6-11 mini systems to add up to the above predicted totals ..who knows ..all I can ..guess ..or state that mother nature tends to surprise when all seems lost ..look up the date feb 13,2006 if you do not believe ..now my info and guesses is not based on any scientific data but..in my 33 years of weather watching my hunches ..are rarely wrong ....and considering the accuracy of LR forecasting this season IMo hunches count just as much as raw data lol ...with all that being said. .such is the hobby we have chosen ..

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IsentropicLift

IsentropicLift

Posted
Posted

Folks, I know things have not turned out the way so far snow fans want ..a lousy 3.2 inches thus far NYC ..my gut tells me ..by .march 15..we have a total 2o-25 inches NYC ..how will that occur ?? Will it be 2 storms somewhere in the future or will it take 6-11 mini systems to add up to the above predicted totals ..who knows ..all I can ..guess ..or state that mother nature tends to surprise when all seems lost ..look up the date feb 13,2006 if you do not believe ..now my info and guesses is not based on any scientific data but..in my 33 years of weather watching my hunches ..are rarely wrong ....and considering the accuracy of LR forecasting this season IMo hunches count just as much as raw data lol ...with all that being said. .such is the hobby we have chosen ..

How can you have 33 years of experience and only be 15 years old?
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BxEngine

BxEngine

Posted
Posted

BX

cool out

I took the posts down

and apologized to the crew

some of us --Transfer Students (from other forums)

had the pleasure of insight from a former Chief Met

for the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

http://www.usno.navy.mil/JTWC/

his name is Mark

and he lives outside of DC (others here can vouch for this)

I am waiting for a reply from him

to clarify any or all of my arguments

about the early access

I believe it was his bit of

trade secret input

for us weenies and students

I will drop this for now ....and move on

dm

Big Edge for us huh??? LOL

a three hour window with model data

for a 3-day surface map forecast :bag:

SCIENCE

check the time stamp

and see the blend with your EURO run

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/nav_conus_pmsl.php?fday=7&fcolor=wbg

I have been at this to long to post a BS story for you all

on that note

Let

Mr Hollis give you some insight

http://tropicalatlantic.com/

Hi. I'm not sure. My site checks for a very specific type of model data. My site checks every half hour for simply the model lines being posted on the NHC's server. I constantly check every half hour for new data because I don't know when new data is available. I don't get notified when new data is available to download, I have to keep checking.

The full GFS data is posted raw on NOAA's server. When a particular forecast hour is done the server can then immediately create an image on the NCEP site for that hour. (http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/) I know their site has data that comes in frame by frame and I would assume that the image is available pretty much as soon as the data becomes available to create it. Other sites that have GFS imagery would have to download and process the raw data into their own kind of images, taking a bit longer. The hard part would likely be knowing when data is available. NCEP does everything for their site. It processes the raw GFS data calculations to create the raw data on the FTP site which other sites can use. But then the server could, and I assume does, create the image for display on their site immediately. It doesn't have to check for new data occasionally because it knows when new data is available as at the end of the task it can simply create the image. Rather than knowing when it is available, other sites like have to check to see if it is available. But that might not be true of all sites. Recon data for example comes across through the NOAAPORT system. You can actually have a satellite receiver pick up that data, along with massive amounts of other weather data. I don't do that because I don't have a satellite or would know how to do it. I constantly check to see if model and recon data is available through NOAA's FTP server. Big companies can simply get it by satellite. Perhaps GFS data, or at least a notification that GFS data is available, is also put out that way, making people get the raw data in real time that can then be processed into images to be displayed on other sites.

ECMWF data I really don't know about. I haven't timed it. Some of the government sites that do have it have it internally. I don't know how soon they get it. You might find out more here:

http://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/software-and-tools

The ECMWF does make some data available for free, but I don't know if they have a built in delay for it. I would certainly assume that the U.S. government gets it faster than the public or even private companies. And of course, they get the full data. Whether the U.S. gets it faster than the imagery that appears on ECMWF's own site, I don't know.

I have never got too much into looking at the ECMWF raw data, or even the GFS raw data, because my site doesn't have the bandwidth to download it or display it, I don't have the resources to process it and I would have to learn how to process it. That would mean building software so I never have researched the raw data too much. Until the last few years I didn't even know you could get some of the ECMWF raw data. I assume that is where some of the university sites that display some of the data get it. I would not think they pay for it and then display it publicly. I don't think the ECMWF would allow that. But I don't know how delayed those university sites get it either.

I don't know how fast, or even what form, the NHC gets the ECMWF data. I did just remember that this site does have some ECMWF data:

http://ruc.noaa.gov/tracks/

I couldn't even think of any government sites that might have that data publicly. But I don't know how delayed it is, if at all.

I know that my site does not carry the ECMWF in real time because it is not released in the NHC's model suite in real time. (NHC gets it, they just don't make it public.) After a storm ends, maybe even post season, ECMWF data is sometimes added however to those model files. I wish since it does appear on that above site as a line that it was available in the NHC's public model files. I wish I could have real time model error calculated for it. Oh well.

again.... a three hour window for a 3-day surface map

maybe my bad ...

dm

I don't really understand the question. The GFS stuff starts running 2:45 after synoptic time (i.e. things start going at 14:45 for the 1200 UTC cycle). This is two fold:

1) They are simply waiting for observations to arrive to do the assimilation.

2) There is a +/- 3 hour window (total of 6 hours) for observations to be assimilated for a particular cycle in the GFS. In other words, all observations between 900 and 1500 UTC are assimilated into the 1200 UTC GFS. There is no "early" access since there is nothing to access early. Products are generated and disseminated to the appropriate (all) channels as soon as stuff is available.

Oops.
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Rjay

Rjay

Posted
Posted

Snoski is still negative :cry:

The clipper is the only thing to be somewhat positive about. Everything after that is so disjointed and paying attention to anything more than 5 days out is silly. Like I've said all winter, I don't trust a dam thing any model shows outside 60-72 hrs (that includes the clipper).

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Guest Pamela

Guest Pamela

Posted
Posted

Seasonal Snowfall 2014-15 Winter

As of 6:00 AM January 17, 2015

 

Bridgeport: 5.1"

LaGuardia Airport: 4.5"

Newark Airport: 4.1"

Central Park: 3.2"

JFK Airport: 2.8"

Islip MacArthur Airport: 2.2"

NWS Upton / BNL: 1.9"

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