donsutherland1 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 That makes a lot more sense Don . I did not think you were calling for 7 to 10 days of above. We seem to agree that we go from well below normal to just below normal and in mid and late jan when splits are 37 27 below normal is cold any way you slice it. The euro 10 to 16 is colder than the GFS and more in line with the much below normal look. I personally think we head back to the much below towards the end of the forecast period I agree with the above. At this time, the ugly extended range of the 6z run of the GFS has no impact on my thinking. The dramatic swing from little or no qpf to >1" qpf between the 0z/6z runs and 12z run for the NYC metro area provides an example of how the model is really struggling. It wouldn't surprise me if the 12z is entirely different in the extended range. I'm not really worried too much about the fantasy range at this point. The pattern looks better and there should be Arctic air available to be tapped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Clipper is rain for the coast on this run. - 3 at 850 and 33 is not rain at KNYC . Do you have different soundings ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 I agree with the above. At this time, the ugly extended range of the 6z run of the GFS has no impact on my thinking. The dramatic swing from little or no qpf to >1" qpf between the 0z/6z runs and 12z run for the NYC metro area provides an example of how the model is really struggling. It wouldn't surprise me if the 12z is entirely different in the extended range. I'm not really worried too much about the fantasy range at this point. The pattern looks better and there should be Arctic air available to be tapped. Well said, Don. People need to stop living model run to model run. It's only going to drive them insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 16, 2015 Author Share Posted January 16, 2015 Well said, Don. People need to stop living model run to model run. It's only going to drive them insane. That ship sailed 6 weeks ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 That ship sailed 6 weeks ago Haha right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 I agree with the above. At this time, the ugly extended range of the 6z run of the GFS has no impact on my thinking. The dramatic swing from little or no qpf to >1" qpf between the 0z/6z runs and 12z run for the NYC metro area provides an example of how the model is really struggling. It wouldn't surprise me if the 12z is entirely different in the extended range. I'm not really worried too much about the fantasy range at this point. The pattern looks better and there should be Arctic air available to be tapped. The wild swing on the fantasy range GFS is pretty laughable though. Yesterday's 18z run had me not getting out of the single digits for highs in late January, this morning's run had me at 60 degrees in almost the exact same time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongIslandWx Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 The wild swing on the fantasy range GFS is pretty laughable though. Yesterday's 18z run had me not getting out of the single digits for highs in late January, this morning's run had me at 60 degrees in almost the exact same time frame. In general, 06z and 18z runs of the GFS should be taken with a grain of salt because there are no balloon launches at those synoptic times. It is good for comic effect though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 One should be very wary about latching onto extended range forecasts when model performance is volatile, especially in the short-range. The GFS has displayed poor run-to-run continuity in the short-range. Below are some differences between the 1/16 6z and 12z runs of the GFS for New York City: In contrast, the ECMWF and ECMWF ensembles and GFS ensembles have been more consistent. Finally, a comparison of the CPC probabilistic idea and the temperature anomalies is below for January 3-9, 2015, during another period where model run-to-run continuity was lacking with regard to the East Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongIslandWx Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Thanks, Don! Those graphics illustrate the point very well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 First, I thought you had me on ignore. Glad you don't. Second, I have certainly not said we ARE getting a snowstorm over the next 4 weeks. I can't think of anyone here who has. The pattern looks to be supportive for several shots at snow, potentially even a KU event. Saying the pattern supports it isn't a definitive statement. How could I resist reading your posts to see what type of havoc you are contributing to in here ? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 I really don't even know why the GFS runs out to 384 hours. The GFS can't even get a QPF forecast correct at 72 hours out, how do you expect it to have any clue beyond day 10. It's a waste of money and no serious met takes it as anything more than comic relief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 I really don't even know why the GFS runs out to 384 hours. The GFS can't even get a QPF forecast correct at 72 hours out, how do you expect it to have any clue beyond day 10. It's a waste of money and no serious met takes it as anything more than comic relief.It will be like the nam and only looked at 12 hrs before an event lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 - 3 at 850 and 33 is not rain at KNYC . Do you have different soundings ? especially in January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 I really don't even know why the GFS runs out to 384 hours. The GFS can't even get a QPF forecast correct at 72 hours out, how do you expect it to have any clue beyond day 10. It's a waste of money and no serious met takes it as anything more than comic relief. GFS model has performed outstanding under 15 days this season. Euro has been a disaster. Euro got lucky with this storm on Sunday. Need to wait for the event to occur still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 It will be like the nam and only looked at 12 hrs before an event lol Sometimes I think that if they only ran the globals out to say 168hours the perception would be that they are much improved but in reality it would only be because too many people take 200hr runs seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 I really don't even know why the GFS runs out to 384 hours. The GFS can't even get a QPF forecast correct at 72 hours out, how do you expect it to have any clue beyond day 10. It's a waste of money and no serious met takes it as anything more than comic relief. I was just pointing out how wild of a swing it was, comic relief as you said. I doubt any of us take extended (8-16 day, for example) OP model runs seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 GFS model has performed outstanding under 15 days this season. Euro has been a disaster. Euro got lucky with this storm on Sunday. Need to wait for the event to occur still. We have a new GFS to work with. I'm not even entirely sure it's exactly the same as what was the PGFS because I think even that was running off of different super computers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metTURNEDpro Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 I really don't even know why the GFS runs out to 384 hours. The GFS can't even get a QPF forecast correct at 72 hours out, how do you expect it to have any clue beyond day 10. It's a waste of money and no serious met takes it as anything more than comic relief.i totally agree with you yanksfan. It's more comical than anything else for us snow weenies. I'd say GFS is only decent 2-3 days out. Tops:72hrs. Euro and Ukmet imo are the go to models. Seems like we continuously make this mistake and give GFS too much attention and we always get disappointed! GFS = Overrated! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 i totally agree with you yanksfan. It's more comical than anything else for us snow weenies. I'd say GFS is only decent 2-3 days out. Tops:72hrs. Euro and Ukmet imo are the go to models. Seems like we continuously make this mistake and give GFS too much attention and we always get disappointed! GFS = Overrated! You do know that the euro model has had horrible, and I mean horrible bust numerous times recently. Many bust last year too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metTURNEDpro Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 You do know that the euro model has had horrible, and I mean horrible bust numerous times recently. Many bust last year too. yeah not saying the euro is perfect in fact this year the models were pretty bad but I'll take the euro over the GFS anyday. Wouldn't you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 And the temps have been busting on the high side the past few days. Was only supposed to hit 34 yesterday and we got close to 40; it was only supposed to be 40 today and it's already 45. I wouldn't be surprised if Sunday got close to 50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metTURNEDpro Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 And the temps have been busting on the high side the past few days. Was only supposed to hit 34 yesterday and we got close to 40; it was only supposed to be 40 today and it's already 45. I wouldn't be surprised if Sunday got close to 50.the only reason why your at 45 is the sun. Sunny days bring warmth. Don't expect 50 on Sunday with wind driven rain. The most you'll get possibly is 42. You never get a warm up with rain unless the low cuts in the Great Lakes. Have a good weekend though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 the only reason why your at 45 is the sun. Sunny days bring warmth. Don't expect 50 on Sunday with wind driven rain. The most you'll get possibly is 42. You never get a warm up with rain unless the low cuts in the Great Lakes. Have a good weekend though Maybe. But this winter is taking place in the Twilight Zone so anything is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 And the temps have been busting on the high side the past few days. Was only supposed to hit 34 yesterday and we got close to 40; it was only supposed to be 40 today and it's already 45. I wouldn't be surprised if Sunday got close to 50.Don't see any stations that hit 40 yesterday....was 34 here and most stations topped out at around 35 yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 This subforum needs a snowstorm in the worst way. When posters such as Bluewave (also is Earthlight ok) are being put on the defensive for offering insight into the potential pattern, something is seriously off. I'm a long time lurker and rare poster, as such I think it important to point out that some of the back and forth discussion has a venom to it that is needless. 95% of the posters here bring a passion for weather and climate that most people I interact with on a normal occasion couldn't care less about. The beauty of this forum is that we weather weenies can discuss the power of mother nature without being looked at with crossed eyes; my finance thinks I'm nuts, but that's what being a 14 year old kid experiencing the Blizzard of '96 will due to a man. I can still remember my father telling me not to worry "You will have school", only for him to spend the next 3 days plowing. So, with that said, I will be praying for cold and snow but should it decide not to, then so be it. Cheers everyone, back to lurking! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Don't see any stations that hit 40 yesterday....was 34 here and most stations topped out at around 35 yesterday. Bizarre. I know what I saw when I logged into the NWS page. Then again, maybe I'm in the Twilight Zone. I'm willing to entertain that idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 So depressing when we are getting another coastal rainstorm in mid winter. Whether the storms cut or are offshore we still end up screwed. Even sadder is the thread for it. We should be hoping for less rain not more of it. How exactly is doubling the rainfall by the models a good thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 This subforum needs a snowstorm in the worst way. When posters such as Bluewave (also is Earthlight ok) are being put on the defensive for offering insight into the potential pattern, something is seriously off. I'm a long time lurker and rare poster, as such I think it important to point out that some of the back and forth discussion has a venom to it that is needless. 95% of the posters here bring a passion for weather and climate that most people I interact with on a normal occasion couldn't care less about. The beauty of this forum is that we weather weenies can discuss the power of mother nature without being looked at with crossed eyes; my finance thinks I'm nuts, but that's what being a 14 year old kid experiencing the Blizzard of '96 will due to a man. I can still remember my father telling me not to worry "You will have school", only for him to spend the next 3 days plowing. So, with that said, I will be praying for cold and snow but should it decide not to, then so be it. Cheers everyone, back to lurking! your money thinks you are nuts ? Well my money is betting on snowy and cold the next 4 weeks ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Currently have a wicked snow squall here in Hopewell, NJ Mercer County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 No matter how many times I proof read what I type my eyes always deceive me. Hopefully the point wasn't lost. Cheers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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