SnoSki14 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Next week looks really interesting with a lot of energy running around Fairly active though the cold seems marginal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 The 00z GFS really gets us into a period of prolonged storminess. It also amps up the northern stream with some mega-clippers shooting down from Canada and into our region.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 I'm going to call Doorman "Zonalman" since that's all he talks about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metTURNEDpro Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 thats freezing and I don't even think I've experienced a cold temperature below zero, but those wind chills wouldn't be correct in today's statistics as noaa had changed them a few years ago. They would probably be minus 30 or so.http://ggweather.com/windchill.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Fairly active though the cold seems marginal. Umm once past sunday the cold is better than marginal and by next weekend we start getting into the real cold. Marginal is inaccurate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Umm once past sunday the cold is better than marginal and by next weekend we start getting into the real cold. Marginal is inaccurate I realize I am not in NYC but my highs after sunday are suppose to be in the mid to upper 30s...after highs in the teens not to long ago these temps will actually feel warm...In other words it's not going to be that cold this upcoming week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Umm once past sunday the cold is better than marginal and by next weekend we start getting into the real cold. Marginal is inaccurate When I say marginal I'm referring to snow and I see no indication of it being very cold past Sunday until towards the last few days of the month. Marginal for snow still means below normal so we'll still end up below average but not very cold. I see nothing against arctic air returning but it'll be after our moderation period of up to 10 days when it does as stated by Don S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Folks, despite the grim stats ...NYC only 3.2. Inches of snow as of now. .I believe we do somehow end up with 20 inches of snow by march ...that's just my opinion no scientific data to back up my thoughts ..now if we do finish with 20 inches of snow ..I'm not grading this winter lol ..no point ..learning curve crzy ..all LR data fooled people ..with that being said I would say it was average winter end of story ...but as I love to say time will tell .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Classic Doorman overnight. No posts during the good runs yesterday. Overnight, after seeing some concerning trends...there he is!! Do not feed the trolls dudes. The most favorable snow pattern of the year is coming. It may NOT snow, but we will have better chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Classic Doorman overnight. No posts during the good runs yesterday. Overnight, after seeing some concerning trends...there he is!! Do not feed the trolls dudes. The most favorable snow pattern of the year is coming. It may NOT snow, but we will have better chances. Comon ! - don't play both sides of the fence by saying - "The most favorable snow pattern of the year is coming. It may NOT snow, but we will have better chances" take a stance ! I have in previous posts saying we WILL have snowstorms the next 4 weeks ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Comon ! - don't play both sides of the fence by saying - "The most favorable snow pattern of the year is coming. It may NOT snow, but we will have better chances" take a stance ! I have in previous posts saying we WILL have snowstorms the next 4 weeks ! Lol, what? Why would anyone make definitive statements about sensible weather details a couple days out, let alone a couple weeks out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 When I say marginal I'm referring to snow and I see no indication of it being very cold past Sunday until towards the last few days of the month. Marginal for snow still means below normal so we'll still end up below average but not very cold. I see nothing against arctic air returning but it'll be after our moderation period of up to 10 days when it does as stated by Don S. I'm sorry. I think I may be reading this wrong so please forgive me if I am . When are we moderating for 10 days ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Lol, what? Why would anyone make definitive statements about sensible weather details a couple days out, let alone a couple weeks out... they should when they keep riding people that were making definite statements ........... its either going to snow or no ! I say snow ! or am I being too positive ??? I'll be thinking of you negatives when I am shoveling the first foot ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Can we not chase away Bluewave. Thanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 I'm sorry. I think I may be reading this wrong so please forgive me if I am . When are we moderating for 10 days ? Compared to the arctic cold earlier this month we will be/are moderating. My forecast highs for the next week or so range anywhere from mid 30s to low 40s, how is that not moderation from highs in the 20s, lows in the single digits/teens. The forecast temps are very seasonable which has changed greatly from the big thaw pattern expected but they've still moderated from the bitter cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Comon ! - don't play both sides of the fence by saying - "The most favorable snow pattern of the year is coming. It may NOT snow, but we will have better chances" take a stance ! I have in previous posts saying we WILL have snowstorms the next 4 weeks ! First, I thought you had me on ignore. Glad you don't. Second, I have certainly not said we ARE getting a snowstorm over the next 4 weeks. I can't think of anyone here who has. The pattern looks to be supportive for several shots at snow, potentially even a KU event. Saying the pattern supports it isn't a definitive statement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Lol, what? Why would anyone make definitive statements about sensible weather details a couple days out, let alone a couple weeks out... they should when they keep riding people that were making definite statements ........... its either going to snow or no ! I say snow ! or am I being too positive ??? I'll be thinking of you negatives when I am shoveling the first foot ! I don't have a clue what you guys are talking about, but I would like to. Unless one or both of you is defending Doorman. Then I don't want to know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 I don't have a clue what you guys are talking about, but I would like to. Unless one or both of you is defending Doorman. Then I don't want to know. I was referring to him telling you to make a definitive "yes or no to snow" forecast. Nothing to do with DM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Compared to the arctic cold earlier this month we will be/are moderating. My forecast highs for the next week or so range anywhere from mid 30s to low 40s, how is that not moderation from highs in the 20s, lows in the single digits/teens. The forecast temps are very seasonable which has changed greatly from the big thaw pattern expected but they've still moderated from the bitter cold. 0z Euro KNYC . The "warm up " is 2 days . Sat is 28 -15 Below normal Sunday is 44 -27 A Mon is 41 -34 A Tues 37 21 Below normal Wed 29- 27 Below normal Thrs 24 - 8 Below normal Frid 34 - 8 Below normal Sat 26 - 5 Below normal That is not a 10 day stretch of tranquil weather , anything but . So we go from well below normal to just below normal ( THE EURO HAS 3 SINGLE DIGIT NIGHTS ) before we wait to go well below normal again . ok congrats . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 The gfs seems a good deal warmer than the Euro then that's what I was going off of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 I was referring to him telling you to make a definitive "yes or no to snow" forecast. Nothing to do with DM. Gotcha. Yeah...overnight GFS runs really not encouraging for long term cold/snow IMO. Next week looks like it could be fun, but we better hope we cash in. The LR on the GFS isn't looking so hot again. Per Euro maps on wxbell, the strat is cooled off and over the next 10 days, the PV moves back to the other side of the globe, a la November/December pattern. PAC just continues to roar with no end in sight. I've also seen data indicating that the Nino signature is gone, which means we can't rely on typical ENSO historical data for the second half of winter. Lots of ish up in the air about what to expect for the rest of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Gotcha. Yeah...overnight runs really not encouraging for cold/snow IMO. Next week looks like it could be fun, but we better hope we cash in. The LR isn't looking so hot again.Well, if I was forced on 1/16 to say yes or no to a 1" or greater snowfall for NYC during the period of the last two weeks of January and the first two weeks of February, I would say yes every single year with my eyes closed. I wouldn't be right every year, but more often than not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 I'm sorry. I think I may be reading this wrong so please forgive me if I am . When are we moderating for 10 days ? To address the confusion, my comment (in the weather forecasting forum) was as follows: In sum, mid-month moderation (relative to the very cold conditions that had recently prevailed) will probably last 7-14 days (10 days is a reasonable midpoint estimate). The term was a relative one, not a statement that we would be warmer than normal. For purposes of comparison, one can use the 1/6-14 timeframe where the temperature averaged 9.7° below normal. The January 15-25 period will probably see an anomaly of 2°-4° below normal (largely skewed by tomorrow's anomaly and perhaps the cold anomaly shown on the 24th if the 0z ECMWF is right). There will be a number of milder days (near normal to even somewhat above normal in the mix). All said, that's not a warm pattern, but certainly one that is milder than where we've been. That's why I used the term "moderation" and also included parenthetical language of "relative to the very cold conditions that had recently prevailed." Of course, especially farther out in the range, the risk of error increases e.g., the 0z GFS would suggest even milder anomalies than what I'm thinking for that timeframe (an average of around 2°-3° below normal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Looks like there is a nice line of snow showers forming with the arctic front upstate. Solid right now and should make it down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 one hour away http://www.nasa.gov/press/2015/january/nasa-noaa-to-announce-2014-global-temperature-climate-conditions/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 To address the confusion, my comment (in the weather forecasting forum) was as follows: In sum, mid-month moderation (relative to the very cold conditions that had recently prevailed) will probably last 7-14 days (10 days is a reasonable midpoint estimate). The term was a relative one, not a statement that we would be warmer than normal. For purposes of comparison, one can use the 1/6-14 timeframe where the temperature averaged 9.7° below normal. The January 15-25 period will probably see an anomaly of 2°-4° below normal (largely skewed by tomorrow's anomaly and perhaps the cold anomaly shown on the 24th if the 0z ECMWF is right). There will be a number of milder days (near normal to even somewhat above normal in the mix). All said, that's not a warm pattern, but certainly one that is milder than where we've been. That's why I used the term "moderation" and also included parenthetical language of "relative to the very cold conditions that had recently prevailed." Of course, especially farther out in the range, the risk of error increases e.g., the 0z GFS would suggest even milder anomalies than what I'm thinking for that timeframe (an average of around 2°-3° below normal). That makes a lot more sense Don . I did not think you were calling for 7 to 10 days of above. We seem to agree that we go from well below normal to just below normal and in mid and late jan when splits are 37 27 below normal is cold any way you slice it. The euro 10 to 16 is colder than the GFS and more in line with the much below normal look. I personally think we head back to the much below towards the end of the forecast period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Light snow event from the clipper for the NYC metro area. Not a bad look this far out. A little more digging would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Light snow event from the clipper for the NYC metro area. Not a bad look this far out. A little more digging would be nice. agreed- as it stands looks like some mood flakes according to 18Z GFS, C-2" on the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 agreed- as it stands looks like some mood flakes according to 18Z GFS, C-2" on the Euro Euro is 1-3/2-4 inches for the area. GFS is just mood flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Not a bad look on the GFS in regards to the clipper. Redevelops further south than the 18z. Clipper is rain for the coast on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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