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Winter 2014-15 Banter Thread


Stormlover74

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Umm once past sunday the cold is better than marginal and by next weekend we start getting into the real cold. Marginal is inaccurate

I realize I am not in NYC but my highs after sunday are suppose to be in the mid to upper 30s...after highs in the teens not to long ago these temps will actually feel warm...In other words it's not going to be that cold this upcoming week...

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Umm once past sunday the cold is better than marginal and by next weekend we start getting into the real cold. Marginal is inaccurate

When I say marginal I'm referring to snow and I see no indication of it being very cold past Sunday until towards the last few days of the month. Marginal for snow still means below normal so we'll still end up below average but not very cold.

I see nothing against arctic air returning but it'll be after our moderation period of up to 10 days when it does as stated by Don S.

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Folks, despite the grim stats ...NYC only 3.2. Inches of snow as of now. .I believe we do somehow end up with 20 inches of snow by march ...that's just my opinion no scientific data to back up my thoughts ..now if we do finish with 20 inches of snow ..I'm not grading this winter lol ..no point ..learning curve crzy ..all LR data fooled people ..with that being said I would say it was average winter end of story ...but as I love to say time will tell ..

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Classic Doorman overnight. No posts during the good runs yesterday. Overnight, after seeing some concerning trends...there he is!!

Do not feed the trolls dudes. The most favorable snow pattern of the year is coming. It may NOT snow, but we will have better chances.

Comon ! - don't play both sides of the fence by saying - "The most favorable snow pattern of the year is coming. It may NOT snow, but we will have better chances" take a stance ! I have in previous posts saying we WILL have snowstorms the next 4 weeks ! 

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Comon ! - don't play both sides of the fence by saying - "The most favorable snow pattern of the year is coming. It may NOT snow, but we will have better chances" take a stance ! I have in previous posts saying we WILL have snowstorms the next 4 weeks !

Lol, what? Why would anyone make definitive statements about sensible weather details a couple days out, let alone a couple weeks out...
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When I say marginal I'm referring to snow and I see no indication of it being very cold past Sunday until towards the last few days of the month. Marginal for snow still means below normal so we'll still end up below average but not very cold.

I see nothing against arctic air returning but it'll be after our moderation period of up to 10 days when it does as stated by Don S.

I'm sorry. I think I may be reading this wrong so please forgive me if I am .

When are we moderating for 10 days ?

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Lol, what? Why would anyone make definitive statements about sensible weather details a couple days out, let alone a couple weeks out...

they should when they keep riding people that were making definite statements ........... :pimp:  its either going to snow or no ! I say snow ! or am I being too positive ??? I'll be thinking of you negatives when I am shoveling the first foot ! :snowing:

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I'm sorry. I think I may be reading this wrong so please forgive me if I am .

When are we moderating for 10 days ?

Compared to the arctic cold earlier this month we will be/are moderating. My forecast highs for the next week or so range anywhere from mid 30s to low 40s, how is that not moderation from highs in the 20s, lows in the single digits/teens.

The forecast temps are very seasonable which has changed greatly from the big thaw pattern expected but they've still moderated from the bitter cold.

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Comon ! - don't play both sides of the fence by saying - "The most favorable snow pattern of the year is coming. It may NOT snow, but we will have better chances" take a stance ! I have in previous posts saying we WILL have snowstorms the next 4 weeks ! 

First, I thought you had me on ignore. Glad you don't.

 

Second, I have certainly not said we ARE getting a snowstorm over the next 4 weeks. I can't think of anyone here who has. The pattern looks to be supportive for several shots at snow, potentially even a KU event. Saying the pattern supports it isn't a definitive statement.

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Lol, what? Why would anyone make definitive statements about sensible weather details a couple days out, let alone a couple weeks out...

 

they should when they keep riding people that were making definite statements ........... :pimp:  its either going to snow or no ! I say snow ! or am I being too positive ??? I'll be thinking of you negatives when I am shoveling the first foot ! :snowing:

I don't have a clue what you guys are talking about, but I would like to. Unless one or both of you is defending Doorman. Then I don't want to know. ;)

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I don't have a clue what you guys are talking about, but I would like to. Unless one or both of you is defending Doorman. Then I don't want to know. ;)

I was referring to him telling you to make a definitive "yes or no to snow" forecast. Nothing to do with DM.
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Compared to the arctic cold earlier this month we will be/are moderating. My forecast highs for the next week or so range anywhere from mid 30s to low 40s, how is that not moderation from highs in the 20s, lows in the single digits/teens.

The forecast temps are very seasonable which has changed greatly from the big thaw pattern expected but they've still moderated from the bitter cold.

0z Euro KNYC .

The "warm up " is   2 days  .

 

Sat is 28 -15  Below normal

 

Sunday is 44 -27  A Mon is 41 -34 

 

Tues     37 21     Below normal 

Wed      29- 27     Below normal 

Thrs      24  - 8     Below normal 

Frid       34 -  8     Below normal

Sat        26 - 5      Below normal

 

That is not a 10 day stretch of tranquil weather , anything but . So we go from well below normal to just below normal ( THE EURO HAS 3 SINGLE DIGIT NIGHTS )  before we wait to go well below normal again .

ok congrats .

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I was referring to him telling you to make a definitive "yes or no to snow" forecast. Nothing to do with DM.

Gotcha. Yeah...overnight GFS runs really not encouraging for long term cold/snow IMO. Next week looks like it could be fun, but we better hope we cash in. The LR on the GFS isn't looking so hot again. Per Euro maps on wxbell, the strat is cooled off and over the next 10 days, the PV moves back to the other side of the globe, a la November/December pattern. PAC just continues to roar with no end in sight. I've also seen data indicating that the Nino signature is gone, which means we can't rely on typical ENSO historical data for the second half of winter. Lots of ish up in the air about what to expect for the rest of winter.

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Gotcha. Yeah...overnight runs really not encouraging for cold/snow IMO. Next week looks like it could be fun, but we better hope we cash in. The LR isn't looking so hot again.

Well, if I was forced on 1/16 to say yes or no to a 1" or greater snowfall for NYC during the period of the last two weeks of January and the first two weeks of February, I would say yes every single year with my eyes closed. I wouldn't be right every year, but more often than not.
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I'm sorry. I think I may be reading this wrong so please forgive me if I am .

When are we moderating for 10 days ?

To address the confusion, my comment (in the weather forecasting forum) was as follows:

 

In sum, mid-month moderation (relative to the very cold conditions that had recently prevailed) will probably last 7-14 days (10 days is a reasonable midpoint estimate).

 

The term was a relative one, not a statement that we would be warmer than normal. For purposes of comparison, one can use the 1/6-14 timeframe where the temperature averaged 9.7° below normal. The January 15-25 period will probably see an anomaly of 2°-4° below normal (largely skewed by tomorrow's anomaly and perhaps the cold anomaly shown on the 24th if the 0z ECMWF is right). There will be a number of milder days (near normal to even somewhat above normal in the mix). All said, that's not a warm pattern, but certainly one that is milder than where we've been. That's why I used the term "moderation" and also included parenthetical language of "relative to the very cold conditions that had recently prevailed." Of course, especially farther out in the range, the risk of error increases e.g., the 0z GFS would suggest even milder anomalies than what I'm thinking for that timeframe (an average of around 2°-3° below normal).

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To address the confusion, my comment (in the weather forecasting forum) was as follows:

In sum, mid-month moderation (relative to the very cold conditions that had recently prevailed) will probably last 7-14 days (10 days is a reasonable midpoint estimate).

The term was a relative one, not a statement that we would be warmer than normal. For purposes of comparison, one can use the 1/6-14 timeframe where the temperature averaged 9.7° below normal. The January 15-25 period will probably see an anomaly of 2°-4° below normal (largely skewed by tomorrow's anomaly and perhaps the cold anomaly shown on the 24th if the 0z ECMWF is right). There will be a number of milder days (near normal to even somewhat above normal in the mix). All said, that's not a warm pattern, but certainly one that is milder than where we've been. That's why I used the term "moderation" and also included parenthetical language of "relative to the very cold conditions that had recently prevailed." Of course, especially farther out in the range, the risk of error increases e.g., the 0z GFS would suggest even milder anomalies than what I'm thinking for that timeframe (an average of around 2°-3° below normal).

That makes a lot more sense Don . I did not think you were calling for 7 to 10 days of above.

We seem to agree that we go from well below normal to just below normal and in mid and late jan when splits are 37 27 below normal is cold any way you slice it.

The euro 10 to 16 is colder than the GFS and more in line with the much below normal look. I personally think we head back to the much below towards the end of the forecast period

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