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Winter 2014-15 Banter Thread


Stormlover74

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Doorman was like the PB GFI of last winter... the guy calls it as he sees it and to date, he's been spot on.

sigh no he hasnt...he doesnt say anything wen the models show a storm but than when they lose it he posts free maps that anyone could find that shows why there is no storm that run which is already common sense...he is one of the worst posters in this forum he gets a boatload of credit for positing free maps with no insight its almost getting ridiculous

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Nice storm day 9/10 on the GFS. Just for the fishes as of now, but deepens rapidly from 1005 near Savannah to sub 960 near Nova Scotia in about 24 hours. I think that period has been showing up as a possible threat consistently in the long range for awhile now.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_37.png

Yup its pretty nice set up aloft. Hopefully the models have the right idea.
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To the crew...

 

First we want to apologize to NEG NAO  for mussing up his thread with banter

 

My intent was not to start a firestorm or debate over model access. (by the WPC) 

The post was for the weenie model huggers .  With my idea of a shortcut to late night runs. 

I may or may not have misspoken on early access.

I have e-mails in to very good sources and will post the info from them ASAP

 

It seems my name comes up all over the place round here. :ph34r:

This is a hobby,I am not a met. My posts hold water- regardless of your personal opinion of me. 

I have no warning points.

I have been accused of being a warm troll.

Yet have been trolled up by D.T.

 

My style is my style,  I can't be everything to everyone on here.

or want to be...

I have spent lots of my free time to bring you quality graphics and insight.

free maps an all  ^_^ 

I get it ...you want snow

that's why you come here!

 

Check your snow totals. Get mad at the pattern not at me!!!!

 

we out

till I post the WPC data access

 

respectfully

tommy e

 

eye eye eye

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sigh no he hasnt...he doesnt say anything wen the models show a storm but than when they lose it he posts free maps that anyone could find that shows why there is no storm that run which is already common sense...he is one of the worst posters in this forum he gets a boatload of credit for positing free maps with no insight its almost getting ridiculous

Lol. Most of the storms where In fantasy land , maybe that's why he didn't say **** if he didn't mention them. He's been right so far . He's a straight Shooter and nobody likes that . All you guys want to hear is there is. 1% chamce of snow instead of a 99% chance of rain . It's like watching the movie dumb and dumber in here at times .

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Lol. Most of the storms where In fantasy land , maybe that's why he didn't say **** if he didn't mention them. He's been right so far . He's a straight Shooter and nobody likes that . All you guys want to hear is there is. 1% chamce of snow instead of a 99% chance of rain . It's like watching the movie dumb and dumber in here at times .

 

Tommy is great and I respect his opinions  , but he has not been right so far . His call from late December was nothing but warmth for Jan .

 

KNYC is -3.7 for the month  . 

 

No one has been on here saying we were going to snow all January  , but we have been on here preaching COLD .

 

Because it has not snowed you can not appoint a default prize to a bad forecast .

Go back and pull all the 6- 10 and 8 - 14 CPC temp maps . They have been destroyed .

Stop saying he has been right - HE HAS BEEN-3.7 WRONG TO DATE .

 

As far as Sunday , it`s rain for many  . But ask Tommy what he has been saying temp wise and I think he will be honest and say he has been too warm .

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i feel like he purposely picks maps that only show warm weather to get a reaction out of other users

He hasn't nailed temps but he has poo pooed just about every snow threat and, well, you know what's transpired.

He doesn't have an anti snow bias... If you were around last year, he was a major honker.

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Tommy is great and I respect his opinions , but he has not been right so far . His call from late December was nothing but warmth for Jan .

KNYC is -3.7 for the month .

No one has been on here saying we were going to snow all January , but we have been on here preaching COLD .

Because it has not snowed you can not appoint a default prize to a bad forecast .

Go back and pull all the 6- 10 and 8 - 14 CPC temp maps . They have been destroyed .

Stop saying he has been right - HE HAS BEEN-3.7 WRONG TO DATE .

As far as Sunday , it`s rain for many . But ask Tommy what he has been saying temp wise and I think he will be honest and say he has been too warm .

I was referencing his no snow calls since that's why the poster was ripping him about
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Not much promise from the OP runs today but I'd guess the next chance at snow would be from that storm the gfs was advertising yesterday at day 8. Temperatures look seasonable for the most part.

Need to see that -AO verify and stay negative.

 

The coldest air of the winter is yet to come it`s here between the 25th and 31st 

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The coldest air of the winter is yet to come it`s here between the 25th and 31st 

They've re-framed the argument to be about snow, not cold. Most of us know what train these folks have been on from day one this winter. It's had little to nothing to do with snow and almost everything to do with the SE ridge and temperatures. We still may not get much snow, but it does seem as though the downswelling effects of the recent SSWE over Greenland are showing on the models with the understood lag that occurs between said events and propagation to the surface. The wild card this winter has always been the Stratosphere. And with so little still known about its effects on the weather at level below it, it is understandable that the timing of some of the epic winter calls was off. With the coming -NAO, cold is all but certain. Hopefully we can get that favorable MJO progression as well, so we can experience some of the white stuff to go along with it. 

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The coldest air of the winter is yet to come it`s here between the 25th and 31st 

The Arctic Blast earlier in the month is going to be difficult to beat - BUT if everything sets up just right and with  the Atlantic more favorable with a neg nao neg AO and the MJO going into snowy cold phases - chances are increasing for a SECS  :snowman: and or MECS :ski:  and or HECS :sled:  ........etc etc..

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The Arctic Blast earlier in the month is going to be difficult to beat - BUT if everything sets up just right and with  the Atlantic more favorable with a neg nao neg AO and the MJO going into snowy cold phases - chances are increasing for a SECS  :snowman: and or MECS :ski:  and or HECS :sled:  ........etc etc..

Yeh that was a cold stretch at KNYC  6th -12 , 7th -17,  8th -18, 9th -6 ,10th -12 .

This has a chance though .

post-7472-0-45787000-1421336248_thumb.pn

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nyblizz44, on 15 Jan 2015 - 10:37 AM, said:nyblizz44, on 15 Jan 2015 - 10:37 AM, said:nyblizz44, on 15 Jan 2015 - 10:37 AM, said:

Obviously some one needs to ban RainManNyc NOW. unacceptable. Sexually explicit material in HERE? Just plain wow #Shakingmy head

 

That person probably has nothing to do with his life.  That was disgusting.

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The coldest air of the winter is yet to come it`s here between the 25th and 31st

I'm not arguing that but by now I think everyone's only interested in snow chances. It doesn't matter how cold it gets but whether it sticks around when a storm arrives or do we continue the warm, wet and cold, dry pattern.

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That person probably has nothing to do with his life.  That was disgusting.

 

 

Obviously some one needs to ban RainManNyc NOW. unacceptable. Sexually explicit material in HERE? Just plain wow #Shakingmy head

Its been happening a lot lately. yesterday as well. Usually its deleted and the person is banned within 10 minutes

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He hasn't nailed temps but he has poo pooed just about every snow threat and, well, you know what's transpired.

He doesn't have an anti snow bias... If you were around last year, he was a major honker.

One hundred percent agree - he's one of the best. And how did the honking turn out last year? and how has the poo-pooing turned out this year? rest my case

 

may have been a little too warm in some of his progs this year - but let's be real - that's not what the weenies are quibbling over, its the lack of any snow, and there he has been 100% dead on.

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One hundred percent agree - he's one of the best. And how did the honking turn out last year? and how has the poo-pooing turned out this year? rest my case

may have been a little too warm in some of his progs this year - but let's be real - that's not what the weenies are quibbling over, its the lack of any snow, and there he has been 100% dead on.

I really haven't seen anyone honking for major snow....I'm so confused. This was a temperature debate.

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I really haven't seen anyone honking for major snow....I'm so confused. This was a temperature debate.

 

For the (now) day 8 possible storm, he posted yesterday that the ensemble mean had a nice track but the 1008mb mean surface low "wasn't going to get it done."

 

So I guess if it doesn't snow 8 days from now, that would confirm his analysis was correct and we should all start taking 216 hour ensemble mean surface pressures verbatim.

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I really haven't seen anyone honking for major snow....I'm so confused. This was a temperature debate.

 

This ^ 

 

That has been the fight here since the Jan thread was created .   The poster only cares about snow , but go back to page 1 and read the actual disagreements .

 

Cold vs Warm . Not Snow.  Can`t say a forecast of warm was a good forecast because it did not snow . There have been 2 clippers and 1 day 8 threat from a week ago - There really has not been to much to debate about  but TEMPS .

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Hard to believe we only have a good 5-6 weeks to get snow before it becomes unlikely and we'll have to wait another 9 months or so. Every day gets a little bit brighter and soon our averages will be ticking upwards.

Grade for first half of met winter. D

its been ugly in the snow dept for sure, seems like we always find a way to warm up and rain (last Monday being the latest example!). And this cold blast has me concerned hard to get much with the pv that close and anything big is likely off the table
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For the (now) day 8 possible storm, he posted yesterday that the ensemble mean had a nice track but the 1008mb mean surface low "wasn't going to get it done."

 

So I guess if it doesn't snow 8 days from now, that would confirm his analysis was correct and we should all start taking 216 hour ensemble mean surface pressures verbatim.

Yes ...spot on spot on  JC

 

muddy the waters all you want

it was an observation not a forecast.........for crying outside

 

dm was wrong

dm was wrong on temps so far

weenies rejoice   LOL

 

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/t850std1_ussm_animation.html

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