Doorman Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 http://deepseanews.com/2013/11/true-facts-about-ocean-radiation-and-the-fukushima-disaster/ Seasonal upper jet stream anomaly off the coast of Japan???? HMMMMM Nuclear winter ......... just not the kind you were expecting http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=westpac&sat=wgms∏=dlm6&zoom=&time= J/K with the strato warming thinkers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Down to 8 already at west Hampton. How low can they go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 http://deepseanews.com/2013/11/true-facts-about-ocean-radiation-and-the-fukushima-disaster/ Seasonal upper jet stream anomaly off the coast of Japan???? HMMMMM Nuclear winter ......... just not the kind you were expecting nw.gif http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=westpac&sat=wgms∏=dlm6&zoom=&time= Translation, please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Translation, please? http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/correlation J/K with the strato warming thinkers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Translation, please?Almost three years ago there was radioactive water flowing from Japan for some reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Translation, please? His post typically tell you his thoughts in the first post. something to keep an eye on maybe. I hold true to the fact that an animal knows the weather. Chipmunks, bears etc, watch and learn over the years. Check phill post end of the summer, non activity = mild winter, can't call snow etc around here, A weather model changes with data that is put into it. Animals know the weather. Best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Doorman FTW! Brutal winter. Maybe...but for the wrong reasons... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 I think the liquor cabinet has been left open . . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 http://deepseanews.com/2013/11/true-facts-about-ocean-radiation-and-the-fukushima-disaster/ Seasonal upper jet stream anomaly off the coast of Japan???? HMMMMM Nuclear winter ......... just not the kind you were expecting nw.gif http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=westpac&sat=wgms∏=dlm6&zoom=&time= J/K with the strato warming thinkers Yup. This is killing us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 The so called experts don't know anymore than most on this board and if winter doesn't turn around they should all be ignored next winter. And I'm not saying they should know but why do we place so much emphasis on winter forecasts when so much can easily go wrong?Yes to be honest, I'm thinking that conditions for a season 3-5 months away just cannot be predicted. I've read a ton of winter forecasts, some by very knowledgeable Mets and hobbyists. Some of the reasoning sounded very good. However, what I've come to find over the past several years is that most of the forecasts aren't just a little bit off, but the exact opposite of what occurs. Cold, snowy forecasts, for the most part have turned out warmer and less snowy. Warm, less snowy forecasts have come before epic cold and snowy winters. By the pros. Does this mean that they will always be wrong ? Of course not ! But I think it really does mean that no matter what is forecasted well ahead of time, it has a 1 in 2 chance of verifying. Either way. Point being, even the best just simply do not have the tools or abilities to forecast long range conditions. Our weather models cannot even accurately forecast much more than a few days in advance. I'm sure this will change in the future, but as of now, long range forecasting I simply cannot believe in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Long Range Trouble Maker---- EC Big Dog Assassin Flat PAC jet... just wont quit http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/ Gem Ens-pattern fit http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem-ens/2015011012/gem-ens_uv250_namer_65.png CFSv2 Forecast of Monthly Mean Climate Anomalies http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaT2m.20150110.201502.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 namer_65.gifbro I don't care what anyone says you are spot on problem is their are not to Many realist on this board it's either snow or they don't want to hear it, fact is weather is weather, I just like to track wether it is rain or snow it's interesting to see what will happen next Long Range Trouble Maker Flat PAC jet... just wont quit http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mranger48 Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 The so called experts don't know anymore than most on this board and if winter doesn't turn around they should all be ignored next winter. And I'm not saying they should know but why do we place so much emphasis on winter forecasts when so much can easily go wrong?Most long range forecasts are based on referencing the past. Unfortunately sometimes a new past is written by not following the so called references that are used to make that winters forecast. In turn, this winter may be used as a new reference for what could go to wrong the first half of winter in the future. I guess it's all a learning experience whether we like it or not. I enjoy snow, but I also enjoy the science behindWhy or why not a winter comes to fruition. Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 11, 2015 Author Share Posted January 11, 2015 Yes to be honest, I'm thinking that conditions for a season 3-5 months away just cannot be predicted. I've read a ton of winter forecasts, some by very knowledgeable Mets and hobbyists. Some of the reasoning sounded very good. However, what I've come to find over the past several years is that most of the forecasts aren't just a little bit off, but the exact opposite of what occurs. Cold, snowy forecasts, for the most part have turned out warmer and less snowy. Warm, less snowy forecasts have come before epic cold and snowy winters. By the pros. Does this mean that they will always be wrong ? Of course not ! But I think it really does mean that no matter what is forecasted well ahead of time, it has a 1 in 2 chance of verifying. Either way. Point being, even the best just simply do not have the tools or abilities to forecast long range conditions. Our weather models cannot even accurately forecast much more than a few days in advance. I'm sure this will change in the future, but as of now, long range forecasting I simply cannot believe in To be fair temps may end up fairly close to average all said and done and not as cold as last year..which was the forecast...predicting snowfall is much more of a crapshoot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Most long range forecasts are based on referencing the past. Unfortunately sometimes a new past is written by not following the so called references that are used to make that winters forecast. In turn, this winter may be used as a new reference for what could go to wrong the first half of winter in the future. I guess it's all a learning experience whether we like it or not. I enjoy snow, but I also enjoy the science behind Why or why not a winter comes to fruition. Sent from my iPhone Wrong, most long range forecast are based off of a hypothesis. There is and has not been enough research done to confirmm long term result. Best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 11, 2015 Author Share Posted January 11, 2015 I think the liquor cabinet has been left open . . . Drinking Jim beam tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 To be fair temps may end up fairly close to average all said and done and not as cold as last year..which was the forecast...predicting snowfall is much more of a crapshootother than weds thurs fri and today how are you comparing temps from last year to this? Just curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 11, 2015 Author Share Posted January 11, 2015 other than weds thurs fri and today how are you comparing temps from last year to this? Just curious. I'm saying the winter forecasts mostly called for average temps and warmer than last year. So far that seems like a good prediction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mranger48 Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Wrong, most long range forecast are based off of a hypothesis. There is and has not been enough research done to confirmm long term result. Best I do agree with u that long range forecasts r based off a hypothesis. However, analogs play a tremendous role in creating One's hypothesis. Referencing the past plays a critical role in hypothesizing what one thinks may or may not occur Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Analogs can only get you so far because no past year will ever be a perfect match for a future year. Forecasting would be a lot easier if analogs determined future events instead they are nothing but a general overview of how certain things evolve. It's like when the professor hands you a syllabus outlining the entire course. Just because you have the outline doesn't mean you'll get the results you want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mranger48 Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 That is all is is a hypothesis.I don't fault people. but I will never pay $ for what is free. I work for a clothing company and get chaved when I hear rumors executives paid big money for a forecast. Best[/quote I hear you...I was in minor league baseball fresh out of college, working group sales. The amount of money they pay for a gamday forecast for a minor league team is mind boggling. I get all the info I need from this weather forum. I would never pay either. To have this forum, great winter or not, is a priceless attribute to the hobby I love. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 I'm saying the winter forecasts mostly called for average temps and warmer than last year. So far that seems like a good predictiongot ya thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 West Hampton went down to 4 before rising back up to 16 in one hour when wind returned. It's cases like this were I doubt the station. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 I wonder if any PWS near KFOK dropped into the single digits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Cries for help truly do go unanswered in Hell. Indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 I wonder if any PWS near KFOK dropped into the single digits. Islip is 65 so I doubt it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 I wonder if any PWS near KFOK dropped into the single digits. Your location must be inside a Bakery???? J/K you may want to fix that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Cries for help truly do go unanswered in Hell. when I read it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Islip is 65 so I doubt it I wish lol. Edit: nvm, I see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Does anyone have the nao indicies for summer of 2013 and 2014 also for 2009 and 2010 I am trying to figure out if the noa is negative for our warmer months "summer" than it turns positive during winter time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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