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Winter 2014-15 Banter Thread


Stormlover74

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I think I meant Perth Amboy...because when I drive south...it always seems that there is a noxious odor around there...Staten Island also...and along stretches of the Belt Parkway in Brooklyn & Queens...especially near aptly named Cropsey Avenue.

Ahh ok no problem. Yeah Perth Amboy also has to deal with the stench from Staten Island. But all those oil refineries off the turnpike don't help I guess either. Hahaha

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I work outside year round so anything beats cold. Snow is another story as I love snow enough and profit enough from it. I agree Long Island does not have the best spring Can I bring that chicken for dinner ? Needs to be used weather. Often when you get the first string of real 70 and sunny weather in the city (manhattan) it's in the 50s with fog. Severe season is relegated to late summer. I have seen some incredible storms over the years at the beach with vast majority being in July and August.

 

I grew up on Long Island (Seaford, actually) and suffered through many a failed thunderstorm. Worked at Jones Beach during my college summers, In 4 years there were only 2 or 3 good thunderstorms. One of them was the July 1983 storm where 2 people were killed by lightning. One of the victims was struck on the beach where I was working; we saw the bolt but didn't actually see it hit (the dunes blocked the view). Guy was walking along the high tide line carrying an umbrella. It was one of those storms you could see coming for a good half hour (and obviously producing lots of lightning), so there was no excuse for anyone to still be out on the beach.

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Here's a link to an article about the storm. Jacob Feinstein was the guy killed at my beach (field 2):

 

http://www.nytimes.com/1983/07/20/nyregion/2d-victim-dies-from-lightning-at-jones-beach.html

 

I had forgotten that he was also carrying a radio on hs shoulder...and perhaps the ultimate irony, the guy was an electrical engineer.

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I remember Martin Luther was caught in a thunderstorm as a young man...and he begged God to not let him be hit by lightning...in exchange he vowed to become a priest...he was not hit and he was true to his word...and in so doing, forever changed the course of history worldwide.

 

So you are saying if he had lived on LI there would have been no reformation?

 

:)

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I remember Martin Luther was caught in a thunderstorm as a young man...and he begged God to not let him be hit by lightning...in exchange he vowed to become a priest...he was not hit and he was true to his word...and in so doing, forever changed the course of history worldwide.

Interesting...did not know that!

 

I had a similar experience, when I was in grad school a bunch of us were spending part of the summer at NCAR. One day (in June) we hiked up Flat Top mountain in Rock Mtn National Park. Well, of course we got caught in a thunderstorm, right when we got to the top. Picture - the mountain is literally flat on top (hence the name), above tree line, and here are about 20 meterology grad students and professors (pretty sure Fred Carr was with us, don't know if anyone knows him). First bolt hits and everyone starts running around like a bunch of idiots. The first bolt hit somewhere behind me and I hit the ground. To this day I'm not sure if it was instinct or I was knocked down by the pressure wave.

 

Eventually someone realized that the bolts were coming about every 10 seconds so we'd run like mad toward the other side of the mountain for 10 seconds, then crouch down until the next bolt...then run again. We all made it but I was very jumpy around thunderstorms for a couple of years after that.

 

Oh, and so far I haven't done anything that changed the world (that I know of, at least)...

 

Chris

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Here's a link to an article about the storm. Jacob Feinstein was the guy killed at my beach (field 2):

http://www.nytimes.com/1983/07/20/nyregion/2d-victim-dies-from-lightning-at-jones-beach.html

I had forgotten that he was also carrying a radio on hs shoulder...and perhaps the ultimate irony, the guy was an electrical engineer.

I have been a life guard at jones beach for the past 15 summers. Every time there is a thunderstorm you can count on a number of idiots staying on the beach. Nowadays they have the cops drive up and down the beach with lights an sirens on. So there hasn't been anyone struck while I have been working there.

Despite the infrequency of storms I have seen some incredible lightning shows over the ocean from the safety of the life guard shack. I'm talking epic lightning. I have witnessed the tall flag like at the center of the central mall struck as well as the main life guard stand. It literally blew the phone right off the wood. We had a solid legit serve storm last summer that had a nice downburst and 60+ mph winds. It took the outdoor furniture at the new concession area and threw it all into a fence. I have pics of it on my phone. Nothing like Seeing a good roll cloud charging down the beach and the sand blowing in swirling blasts. Something you will never forget!

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Doorman FTW! Brutal winter.

 

Just the pattern. you can't change it.

Good winters, it snows, bad winter, we keep hope.

I am still and do believe that the last week of January the pattern changes.(better odds of snow).

We just are not getting the storms crashing into SCA or the cold fronts that can form the miller "b" storms.

I reamain optimistic that all reporting stations reach avg snow fall or above for the year in our area.

If the 5 weeks from the end of January to the end of February can produce, all will be okay. All you need in 1 big storm and 2 or 3 decent event.

I still can't forgive the end of last winter. we got bombed the 1st half, after the 2nd week of February, winter ended.

Hope is all we have until we are gone. Someday, weather models will be able to predict the weather months in advance. This will be and is what the future generation needs with time to prepare for storms. 

If this winter fails, take time to reflect.

Someone once noted - look outside this is the weather,

 

Best

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Maybe it's just me, but I don't need 700" of snow every year. That little 1" event yesterday was enough to make it look (somewhat) scenic around here.

 

Problem:

Avg snowfall is under ytd. 

 

Action Plan - hope favored euro model regains mojo or GFS show favorable long term pattern. 

Short term - Wonder why gfs model has been most reliable model as of October for extended weather patterns.

Near term - take a walk in the cold. If you have snow on the ground, make a snow ball or toss snow on face of significant other.

End Result - Big snow storm likely final days of Januray or early 1st week of February.

 

Best

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Larry cosgrove seems to be really high on the same pattern change Animal thinks will happen. He's hedging his bets on a tanking AO, mjo going through phase 8-1-2 and the NAO going neutral and eventually negative late jan/early feb. He has alluded to this on his Facebook page. I didn't see anything about the QBO coming back up tho (which is at -25.5 currently correct?). I just quickly glanced at it so correct me if I missed something. Almost every met from Cohen to DT to mets and hobbyists on this board had "backloaded winter" in their winter forecast. Perhaps there's still time for that to actually be correct, but we just get there a little differently than we all would have hoped (dec/jan suckery). I really would like to hear doormans thoughts on this...Pamela, isotherm, blue wave as well....and especially earthlight...oh lord earthlight where art thou?

Sent from my iPhone

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Larry cosgrove seems to be really high on the same pattern change Animal thinks will happen. He's hedging his bets on a tanking AO, mjo going through phase 8-1-2 and the NAO going neutral and eventually negative late jan/early feb. He has alluded to this on his Facebook page. I didn't see anything about the QBO coming back up tho (which is at -25.5 currently correct?). I just quickly glanced at it so correct me if I missed something. Almost every met from Cohen to DT to mets and hobbyists on this board had "backloaded winter" in their winter forecast. Perhaps there's still time for that to actually be correct, but we just get there a little differently than we all would have hoped (dec/jan suckery). I really would like to hear doormans thoughts on this...Pamela, isotherm, blue wave as well....and especially earthlight...oh lord earthlight where art thou?

Sent from my iPhone

What is an earth light?
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What is an earth light?

Maybe John can make an appearance and fill us in

Pb gfi didn't mean to leave u out. ....I don't subscribe to LC's newsletter but he posted an abstract on his fb page. Sorry for the rant but with all the negativity I figured I would post something at least a little hopeful.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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Larry cosgrove seems to be really high on the same pattern change Animal thinks will happen. He's hedging his bets on a tanking AO, mjo going through phase 8-1-2 and the NAO going neutral and eventually negative late jan/early feb. He has alluded to this on his Facebook page. I didn't see anything about the QBO coming back up tho (which is at -25.5 currently correct?). I just quickly glanced at it so correct me if I missed something. Almost every met from Cohen to DT to mets and hobbyists on this board had "backloaded winter" in their winter forecast. Perhaps there's still time for that to actually be correct, but we just get there a little differently than we all would have hoped (dec/jan suckery). I really would like to hear doormans thoughts on this...Pamela, isotherm, blue wave as well....and especially earthlight...oh lord earthlight where art thou?

Sent from my iPhone

The so called experts don't know anymore than most on this board and if winter doesn't turn around they should all be ignored next winter. And I'm not saying they should know but why do we place so much emphasis on winter forecasts when so much can easily go wrong?

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Larry cosgrove seems to be really high on the same pattern change Animal thinks will happen. He's hedging his bets on a tanking AO, mjo going through phase 8-1-2 and the NAO going neutral and eventually negative late jan/early feb. He has alluded to this on his Facebook page. I didn't see anything about the QBO coming back up tho (which is at -25.5 currently correct?). I just quickly glanced at it so correct me if I missed something. Almost every met from Cohen to DT to mets and hobbyists on this board had "backloaded winter" in their winter forecast. Perhaps there's still time for that to actually be correct, but we just get there a little differently than we all would have hoped (dec/jan suckery). I really would like to hear doormans thoughts on this...Pamela, isotherm, blue wave as well....and especially earthlight...oh lord earthlight where art thou?

Sent from my iPhone

 

I have and will always look to the west for weather :violin:

 

from what I know and see in our area = snow

 

storms hitting the baja of mexico or southern california

stagnent cold weather or a cold front that joins forces with storms out west

this = big snow

 

I have yet to see it this year

Option B - storm that develop off DE, VA of MD from a cold front from canda

 

Last resort

SWFE or midwest mauler that turn to sleet or rain after 4-8

 

best

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