Nygmen Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 if the euro and its ensembles cave to the gfs AGAIN with the day 8 storm being ots i think its fairly obvious that for at least the time being the gfs is CLEARLY the better model and its really not even close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Looks like a nice wintry week ahead.. That's Upton's code for "we don't know what's going to happen next week" And I don't blame them either. Nice seasonal total btw, beats my lousy 2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 i think its fair to say that if we dont get a decent storm by the end ok MLK weekend and there is still no signs of the NAO or AO changing its winter cancel time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 That's Upton's code for "we don't know what's going to happen next week" And I don't blame them either. Nice seasonal total btw, beats my lousy 2" I can thank Novemeber for that.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Now IrishRob is having visuals of you running in the nude lol smhI was trying to figure out how a grown man can run naked without some support in the under carriage region... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 I was trying to figure out how a grown man can run naked without some support in the under carriage region... lol.. Im not even gonna touch this topic. Maybe Metfan can offer some assistance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 if the euro and its ensembles cave to the gfs AGAIN with the day 8 storm being ots i think its fairly obvious that for at least the time being the gfs is CLEARLY the better model and its really not even close In that event, I think a more well-thought out conclusion would be that GFS has a better handle on PAC influence in the overall pattern. It's not that the Euro is bad, it's that it has been having trouble with what is shaping up to be a seasonal trend...a strong PAC jet that routinely squashes any sort of ridging allowed to pump up out ahead of it, whether it be a -EPO (12/20 system) or a +PNA (this upcoming system). Today's trends were not good at all in the PAC and, for the time being, we are relying on the northern stream to save us, a better time of year for marginal events, and a slightly better, but still crappy, Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 yea thats basically what i was saying when i said for the time being...the euro isnt worse per say like u said but it handles the specific pattern worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 lol.. Im not even gonna touch this topic. Maybe Metfan can offer some assistance Let me try, seen rainforest tribal folk wearing ice cream cones down there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 yea thats basically what i was saying when i said for the time being...the euro isnt worse per say like u said but it handles the specific pattern worse Yep. I wish someone would put all these observation together. Could make for a killer met grad student thesis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Does anyone know offhand why NWS Upton would on their extended forecast page show 'Snow Likely' (not light snow, but Snow) for tomorrow while at the same time forecasting less than one inch? What drives whether the word 'Light' is used? While we're at it, what do you think of the use of silly thermometer icons and use of the word 'Cold' or 'Hot'. First, Cold and Hot are provided at the expense of detail about cloud cover, and second, they add no value. I can decide whether I am likely to feel Cold or Hot based on the numeric temperature value, I don't need to see the word 'Cold' or a blue thermometer after reading 12F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Something has to give soon - weather around the metro has been boring since last March - quiet hurricane season and a quiet winter so far ......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Does anyone know offhand why NWS Upton would on their extended forecast page show 'Snow Likely' (not light snow, but Snow) for tomorrow while at the same time forecasting less than one inch? What drives whether the word 'Light' is used? While we're at it, what do you think of the use of silly thermometer icons and use of the word 'Cold' or 'Hot'. First, Cold and Hot are provided at the expense of detail about cloud cover, and second, they add no value. I can decide whether I am likely to feel Cold or Hot based on the numeric temperature value, I don't need to see the word 'Cold' or a blue thermometer after reading 12F. "Light" would be referring to the rate at which the snow is falling.....thus, a slower snow rate usually leading to minor accumulations. In this case, the snow showers that will possibly push through our area have the chance of being more than just light snow. They may possibly be heavier, but for a very short time, leading to minor accumulations of an inch or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 There is a small window of opportunity for some OES / enhancement over eastern LI tomorrow morning. I am reminded of this: http://www.northshorewx.com/images/sidebars/OES-20050119.gif OKX is considering something similar and updated the AFD with the following at 10:22PM: A FEW FLURRIES OR POCKETS OF LGT SNOW CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER LI AND ERN CT WITH THE DEVELOPING STRATUS...OTHERWISE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES TOWARDS DAYBREAK FRIDAY...SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. Not sure if there are any flurries out that way yet, but radar has been picking up the effect of the SW flow over the south fork all evening. Ocean temps are about 6 to 8C close to the shore and warmer further south. 850s aren't expected to warm to any more than about -7 or -8, so plenty of Delta-T for OES. I am not sure how the expected high winds will affect this, but they are expected to have a decent onshore fetch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 lol.. Im not even gonna touch this topic. Maybe Metfan can offer some assistanceHey I didn't say I did it, just said I could have Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 ..the shallow ponds out this way are totally frozen..ice looks awesome(smooth and fast)..with saturdays reinforcing shot i say game on for sunday..pond hockey anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 lol.. Im not even gonna touch this topic. Maybe Metfan can offer some assistance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 ..the shallow ponds out this way are totally frozen..ice looks awesome(smooth and fast)..with saturdays reinforcing shot i say game on for sunday..pond hockey anyone? Any idea how thick the ice is? We played on a lake north of lake George last week...drilled through and the ice was around 10". I saw some kids playing in Miller Place yesterday so I guess things are solid enough.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 9, 2015 Author Share Posted January 9, 2015 I think the city on east gets more today than from overrunning Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Reading the 7-day forecasts from the media channels on TV this morning is very depressing. Rain for both of next week's events with a toaster bath commencing. Today's "event" will likely be the heaviest snowfall this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Reading the 7-day forecasts from the media channels on TV this morning is very depressing. Rain for both of next week's events with a toaster bath commencing. Today's "event" will likely be the heaviest snowfall this season. Taking the forecast from the media seriously FTL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Reading the 7-day forecasts from the media channels on TV this morning is very depressing. Rain for both of next week's events with a toaster bath commencing. Today's "event" will likely be the heaviest snowfall this season. I didn't know you were Nostradamus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Any idea how thick the ice is? We played on a lake north of lake George last week...drilled through and the ice was around 10". I saw some kids playing in Miller Place yesterday so I guess things are solid enough.. ..not sure..i did walk on it but not too far from shore..if anything this period of snow will kinda spoil the quality of the ice..but thats ok.little shoveling will take care of that..c'mon out to eastport for some pond hockey this sunday..could be our only window this winter season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Taking the forecast from the media seriously FTL Next week's 16th storm is on life support as there will be virtually no cold air to be had in our region; so even a benchmark track will produce rain for NYC. Next week will be very, very depressing as we will definitely rain for both events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 See a dr. Seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Next week's 16th storm is on life support as there will be virtually no cold air to be had in our region; so even a benchmark track will produce rain for NYC. Next week will be very, very depressing as we will definitely rain for both events. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Lol I am not hallucinating at all. Even Upton agrees that this storm is DOA for NYC in regards to snow. And the -EPO will be collapsing during this time; thus, we will begin to blowtorch from MLK onwards like the Euro weeklies show. AGAIN...PRECIPTYPE LOOKS TO BE INITIALLY WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO MAINLY RAIN NEAR THE COAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Next week's 16th storm is on life support as there will be virtually no cold air to be had in our region; so even a benchmark track will produce rain for NYC. Next week will be very, very depressing as we will definitely rain for both events. The storm is a week away, give me a freakin break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 See a dr. Seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 See a dr. Seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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