WintersGrasp Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Nice! I had a nice collection when I was Tony's age, but I used to smash them up pretty good. Then I'd have the ambulance come but that would usually end up in the pile too. I have mine somewhere. They're worth some good money if you have the right ones. Must dig them out ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 To each his own but cold without snow is like a meatball hero without the parm... Actually I hate the cold but love meatballs.... This x 10000000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Word...when you're 5 and someone stole your favorite matchbox car. Btw do they still have matchbox cars?? I have about 400 in a big box in my parents basement. Along with Starting Lineup figures, some thundercats stuff, and my laundry that i did at their house last week. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 No they are not the same person. You have no right complaining with the way you have acted this this winter. and how exactly did I act ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Tony's so funny. He's like a child throwing a tantrum when he doesn't get his way. I'm done being civil with him there's no reasoning with a little kid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 and how exactly did I act ? My personal favorite was the Earthlight bump troll post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Christ. Ban snoski and neg-nao...have a better board. If you think that's the answer to fix this forum then you better go back to the drawing board. On another note I'm always seeing posters and mets talk about the ensembles and maybe they see some hints of blocking or perhaps there are signs of a -AO/NAO or other notions such as a SSW in the weeks ahead. Did they ever think that just maybe the AO/NAO are not poised to ever go negative this winter or certainly not for any long period. We've been in a fairly stable pattern if you think about it with the -EPO being more of a constant while blocking has been pretty much absent. The biggest difference has been the introduction of Nino conditions to the overall pattern, which really turned November and December on its head. The Atlantic SST configuration does not support a -AO at all and I don't see it changing either. This doesn't mean winter cancel by any stretch and last year showed us how we can still produce even in the absence of Atlantic blocking. I still feel very good about February and still this month as well. I don't think this winter when it's said and done will be a disaster. We'll be looking at the PNA religiously for snow chances as it gives us our best shot at a significant storm in the absence of a -AO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Tomorrow is the 19th anniversary of the greatest area wide snow storm most of us have ever seen. (Anyone over 25 should remember) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Tomorrow is the 19th anniversary of the greatest area wide snow storm most of us have ever seen. (Anyone over 25 should remember) Best ever. We got 3-4ft in the western parts of VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Best ever. We got 3-4ft in the western parts of VA. Yea you were probably already sn+ at this time on 1/6/96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Tomorrow is the 19th anniversary of the greatest area wide snow storm most of us have ever seen. (Anyone over 25 should remember) I assume someone's gonna make a special thread about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 If you think that's the answer to fix this forum then you better go back to the drawing board. On another note I'm always seeing posters and mets talk about the ensembles and maybe they see some hints of blocking or perhaps there are signs of a -AO/NAO or other notions such as a SSW in the weeks ahead. Did they ever think that just maybe the AO/NAO are not poised to ever go negative this winter or certainly not for any long period. We've been in a fairly stable pattern if you think about it with the -EPO being more of a constant while blocking has been pretty much absent. The biggest difference has been the introduction of Nino conditions to the overall pattern, which really turned November and December on its head. The Atlantic SST configuration does not support a -AO at all and I don't see it changing either. This doesn't mean winter cancel by any stretch and last year showed us how we can still produce even in the absence of Atlantic blocking. I still feel very good about February and still this month as well. I don't think this winter when it's said and done will be a disaster. We'll be looking at the PNA religiously for snow chances as it gives us our best shot at a significant storm in the absence of a -AO. First thing I would like to point out is that we had Scandinavian blocking for some of the bigger storms last year. So, your assertion that we did not have blocking is, in fact, incorrect. The next thing that is wrong is the notion that we have had an -EPO dominated pattern all season. Another point is on the question of whether or not we will ultimately see blocking this season. The latest MJO indications are that we will be in a much more favorable period for blocking to take shape. Weathergun has access to some other really good data to support this change in MJO phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 7, 2015 Author Share Posted January 7, 2015 There was such an ominous feeling before the storm. Like you knew it was going to be huge and couldn't miss and something we'd be talking about for years to come. I spent most of it on a bus trying to get back to school in state college, bummed that I was missing it. They still managed 18" out there and it snowed the entire way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 First thing I would like to point out is that we had Scandinavian blocking for some of the bigger storms last year. So, your assertion that we did not have blocking is, in fact, incorrect. The next thing that is wrong is the notion that we have had an -EPO dominated pattern all season. Another point is on the question of whether or not we will ultimately see blocking this season. The latest MJO indications are that we will be in a much more favorable period for blocking to take shape. Weathergun has access to some other really good data to support this change in MJO phase. The ridging last year was so extensive at times that it did the job but they weren't classic blocks otherwise we would've seen much longer lasting and even bigger snowstorms. The blocking people want is of the 10/11 variety because they deliver the biggest snowstorms. The pacific SST pattern has remained the same thus promoting -EPO conditions and PNA ridging. I've read what mets from the SNE forum said about the mjo and some believe that it doesn't always have the effects you would expect or that they lack impact. Shouldn't we be torching right now given the phases we're currently in? http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Temperature/ Phase 7 is still not very favorable. We want to get into Phases 8-2 for a much better pattern to develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Yea you were probably already sn+ at this time on 1/6/96. Yup, it started snowing that morning. I remember, my parents went to a UVA bball game and left us at home (I was about 12 at the time). They were lucky to get back across the mountain (on I-64), and by nightfall it was pouring snow. It did so until around sunrise on Monday (1/8) morning. Just incredible. Then it snowed about another foot a week later. Of course, as is your typical Virginia weather, two weeks after the Blizzard we went from about 25" to nothing in the matter of about 6 hours as temps were throttled up to close to 70F with thunderstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 The ridging last year was so extensive at times that it did the job but they weren't classic blocks otherwise we would've seen much longer lasting and even bigger snowstorms. The blocking people want is of the 10/11 variety because they deliver the biggest snowstorms. The pacific SST pattern has remained the same thus promoting -EPO conditions and PNA ridging. I've read what mets from the SNE forum said about the mjo and some believe that it doesn't always have the effects you would expect or that they lack impact. Shouldn't we be torching right now given the phases we're currently in? http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Temperature/ Phase 7 is still not very favorable. We want to get into Phases 8-2 for a much better pattern to develop. This may be the longest we've gone in winter without a sustained negative NAO since the late 80s or early 90s. I'm thinking it's possibly due to the transformation into the cold AMO although history argues there is a lag between a phase shift and NAO result. Also there is debate over whether we are in a phase shift. It may just be bad luck with a crappy SST pattern the last few winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 The ridging last year was so extensive at times that it did the job but they weren't classic blocks otherwise we would've seen much longer lasting and even bigger snowstorms. The blocking people want is of the 10/11 variety because they deliver the biggest snowstorms. The pacific SST pattern has remained the same thus promoting -EPO conditions and PNA ridging. I've read what mets from the SNE forum said about the mjo and some believe that it doesn't always have the effects you would expect or that they lack impact. Shouldn't we be torching right now given the phases we're currently in? http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Temperature/ Phase 7 is still not very favorable. We want to get into Phases 8-2 for a much better pattern to develop. All of this is moot. We can get moderate snow events with no blocking. In weak Nino years, phases 7, 8 and 1 are the most favorable as far as I recall. Your link does not factor in the ENSO state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 The ridging last year was so extensive at times that it did the job but they weren't classic blocks otherwise we would've seen much longer lasting and even bigger snowstorms. The blocking people want is of the 10/11 variety because they deliver the biggest snowstorms. The pacific SST pattern has remained the same thus promoting -EPO conditions and PNA ridging. I've read what mets from the SNE forum said about the mjo and some believe that it doesn't always have the effects you would expect or that they lack impact. Shouldn't we be torching right now given the phases we're currently in? http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Temperature/ Phase 7 is still not very favorable. We want to get into Phases 8-2 for a much better pattern to develop. Phase 7 is actually still a pretty good pattern in El Ninos and ENSO Neutral conditions. That phase 7 temperature composite is skewed by the Nina pattern which has ridging OFF the west coast instead of on it. In El Ninos and ENSO neutral, that ridging is further east towards the west coast, ultimately leading to some sort of +PNA. Of course, phases 8 and 1 are still better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 This may be the longest we've gone in winter without a sustained negative NAO since the late 80s or early 90s. I'm thinking it's possibly due to the transformation into the cold AMO although history argues there is a lag between a phase shift and NAO result. Also there is debate over whether we are in a phase shift. It may just be bad luck with a crappy SST pattern the last few winters. 88-89 was very positive for most of the winter...87-88 was positive most of the time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 7, 2015 Author Share Posted January 7, 2015 88-89 was very positive for most of the winter...87-88 was positive most of the time... 89 was painfully close to an MECS up here for late Feb. I think up to toms river got a foot and of course we got nothing. Was supposed to be 4-8" possibly much more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 89 was painfully close to an MECS up here for late Feb. I think up to toms river got a foot and of course we got nothing. Was supposed to be 4-8" possibly much more yea that was one of the worse near misses of my life... The nao for December 2014 was +1.86...Here are other years with a nao over +0.95 and what the nao averaged for February... year.........Dec...Feb...NAO 1951-52...+1.32...-0.83 1965-66...+1.37...-1.39 1974-75...+1.50...-0.62 1979-80...+1.00..+0.05 1982-83...+1.78...-0.53 1993-94...+1.56..+0.46 1994-95...+2.02..+1.14 2004-05...+1.21...-0.06 2006-07...+1.34...-0.47 2011-12...+2.52..+0.42 2013-14...+0.95..+1.34 2014-15...+1.34 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mranger48 Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Anybody know about how long the lag is between entering a favorable mjo phase and seeing the effects of the pattern in our area? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 88-89 was very positive for most of the winter...87-88 was positive most of the time... I believe the only winters with any sustained negative NAO from 1980-1994 were 84-85 and 86-87 and neither really helped us much in the snow department, its possible they were primarily east based -NAOs. 1988-89 was your classic strong La Nina with virtually no blocking, thats what made 08-09, and 10-11 so strange in that all had extensive periods of blocking at some point which for fairly potent La Ninas is rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 89 was painfully close to an MECS up here for late Feb. I think up to toms river got a foot and of course we got nothing. Was supposed to be 4-8" possibly much more One of the many fails of the NGM model, that thing had major problems having the snow shield too far NW with coastal systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Today's Anomaly Pattern..... Unmasked bash the guidance if you must please don't bash the messenger https://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/naefs/semaine2_combinee_e.html http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/index.html http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model%20Guidance&model=GEFS-SPAG&area=ATLANTIC&ps=area http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/ dig deeper than op runs and the consensus clearly shows its face dm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 I could not post this in regular thread but. My thoughts are basic. From now until end of Jan ...cold ..a few blips of transient warmth ..and a few chances of snow Here and there ...then jackpot ..time will be Feb...I just got feeling mjo and other factors will really be lined up by then ..and could produce real snow chances ..I mean like mega storm 12-15 inches ..will my hunch be right or will it crash and burn..either way life goes on ..and such is the hobby we have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 89 was painfully close to an MECS up here for late Feb. I think up to toms river got a foot and of course we got nothing. Was supposed to be 4-8" possibly much more oh that storm was brutal. I was living just NW of Philly and the talk was on for days about the big one. And after a stretch of nothing for several years, the hype was at a feverish pitch. Woke up the morning of the storm-nothing. Gray skies. School was on....(was a junior in HS) NOAA weather radio was chopping accums....4-8 then 3-6 then 2-4....end result was nothing at all. Remember looking out the window around 2pm and seeing the dim sun through the overcast.... Atlantic City got hammered, but 10 or 15 miles inland, nothing. Was a heartbreaker to say the least and I think we got nothing rest of the way too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 oh that storm was brutal. I was living just NW of Philly and the talk was on for days about the big one. And after a stretch of nothing for several years, the hype was at a feverish pitch. Woke up the morning of the storm-nothing. Gray skies. School was on....(was a junior in HS) NOAA weather radio was chopping accums....4-8 then 3-6 then 2-4....end result was nothing at all. Remember looking out the window around 2pm and seeing the dim sun through the overcast.... Atlantic City got hammered, but 10 or 15 miles inland, nothing. Was a heartbreaker to say the least and I think we got nothing rest of the way too.I remember that. They closed my h.s. in Philly. Didnt see a single flake. The hype that never was.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 I remember that. They closed my h.s. in Philly. Didnt see a single flake. The hype that never was.... I didn't even get a snow day out of it. Those schools looked foolish for closing for what turned out to be a cloudy day. Didn't really matter, there were next to no snow days those 2 years. 88-89 and 89-90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 7, 2015 Author Share Posted January 7, 2015 oh that storm was brutal. I was living just NW of Philly and the talk was on for days about the big one. And after a stretch of nothing for several years, the hype was at a feverish pitch. Woke up the morning of the storm-nothing. Gray skies. School was on....(was a junior in HS) NOAA weather radio was chopping accums....4-8 then 3-6 then 2-4....end result was nothing at all. Remember looking out the window around 2pm and seeing the dim sun through the overcast.... Atlantic City got hammered, but 10 or 15 miles inland, nothing. Was a heartbreaker to say the least and I think we got nothing rest of the way too. I remember Frank Field saying 4-8" was a lock the night before and we could see more if the storm came 50 miles closer and would need to be watched closely. When I left for school the radio said the snow was about an hour away. 10:00 nothing..11 Nada..1:00 still not a flake. I think accumulating snow only made it up to monmouth county so it was a rather large bust for many. 10 months later another bust with 4-8" forecast and only got heavy rain. 89 was just not a snow lover's year with the only bright spot being thanksgiving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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