NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Don't give up ...buddy. .chance of clipper on Tue ..and ..who knows from there ..keep thinking snow and magic may happen lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 So I glanced at a 7-day forecast for NYC on one of the TV weather stations and I became very enthused and encouraged as I saw the arctic blast next week. So, I had to log on to these forums because I thought the January forecast changed with a -NAO a -AO finally developing towards mid-month. But, I became quickly depressed when I signed onto these forums as I learned that we will still torch 97-98 style after the 10th through the end of the month with no shot of snowfall. This isn't true at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 There is no torch. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 So I glanced at a 7-day forecast for NYC on one of the TV weather stations and I became very enthused and encouraged as I saw the arctic blast next week. So, I had to log on to these forums because I thought the January forecast changed with a -NAO a -AO finally developing towards mid-month. But, I became quickly depressed when I signed onto these forums as I learned that we will still torch 97-98 style after the 10th through the end of the month with no shot of snowfall. I've tried to stress on this board that the various indices are forecast tools...not an end in themselves...and one should not be ruled by them. Moreover, knowing precisely where *some* of those indices are going more than a few days in advance is invariably going to be problematic...obviously...if you have a positive sea surface temperature anomaly off the coast of Peru...the El Nino those warm waters will manifest is not going to evaporate quickly...but some of the other indices are highly variable and far more unpredictable. With weather, more than most other scientific endeavors, I suggest one stay away from speaking in absolute terms...as the number of variables in play are so numerous and so potentially changeable that the one thing which is absolutely certain is the lack of absolute certainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 The thing I love most about many local mets is their total inability to think outside the box; they are rigidly devoted to one dimensional outlooks with misunderstood climatology at the forefront of their shortcomings. In fairness, I have not watched a tv news weather broadcast in over a decade, so I may be out of step when it comes to the current crop of on air weather people.I'll cite an example: When an offshore cyclone with plenty of cold air is forecast to move east of the region and the form of precipitation is not in question, the standard forecast will invariably be "heaviest amounts over the Twin Forks of Long Island & SE CT"...this tends to verify about as often as the Jets win the football championship...and yet, the notion...along with the low probability of verifying forecast...will be trotted out the next time a similar scenario presents itself. I'm not going to go into the reasons why this specific forecast seldom comes to pass (though things like the stabilizing impact of all the surrounding water are factors)...but the point is, no attempt to learn from past errors seems to manifest and the mistake is repeated time w/o number due to either intellectual laziness or just some innate fear of steering away from long held & "safe" forecasting axioms that have long proven themselves utterly w/o merit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 ..haven't heard from earthlight regarding current state and what the future holds.. bluewave has been spot on and if he's right this cold snap will NOT last too long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 ..haven't heard from earthlight regarding current state and what the future holds.. bluewave has been spot on and if he's right this cold snap will NOT last too long. I know this keeps coming up, but.....by "cold snap" I guess we are referring to bitterly cold air and by it not lasting long, I guess we are referring to a return to near normal temperatures ? Near normal temperatures in January are cold with highs in the 30s and lows in the teens to 20s for most of us. It seems as if there is an active pattern ahead and with temperatures near normal in January, that is surely cold enough for snow chances. Putting aside the terrible December we clearly had, January looks good. The perfect combination of freezing cold air and huge coastals? Probably not. But sufficiently cold and active ? I think so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 I know this keeps coming up, but.....by "cold snap" I guess we are referring to bitterly cold air and by it not lasting long, I guess we are referring to a return to near normal temperatures ? Near normal temperatures in January are cold with highs in the 30s and lows in the teens to 20s for most of us. It seems as if there is an active pattern ahead and with temperatures near normal in January, that is surely cold enough for snow chances. Putting aside the terrible December we clearly had, January looks good. The perfect combination of freezing cold air and huge coastals? Probably not. But sufficiently cold and active ? I think so The vast majority of January snowfalls in NYC are 4 inches or less...February would be a better candidate for a larger (8 inches or more) event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 The vast majority of January snowfalls in NYC are 4 inches or less...February would be a better candidate for a larger (8 inches or more) event. For example, from January 31, 1966 - January 5, 1996...30 years...Central Park had only 3 January snowstorms of 6 inches or more...in other words, one every 10 years on average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 The GEFS and the euro ensembles aren't bad at all moving forward. The pattern moving along isn't a torch pattern by any means. I think we have turned the corner from a bad pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 it is now snowing at a good clip in the northwestern bronx..big flakes and cold conditions currently 34f,dp of 23f..so some cooling will stave off rain for now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeRain Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 it is now snowing at a good clip in the northwestern bronx..big flakes and cold conditions currently 34f,dp of 23f..so some cooling will stave off rain for now.. Snowing enough to whiten the lawn a bit here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Did bluewave leave the board? I hope not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 3, 2015 Author Share Posted January 3, 2015 Did bluewave leave the board? I hope not Dont think so but his posts from earlier seem to have disappeared Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Dont think so but his posts from earlier seem to have disappeared Only his quotes are left...hope he's still here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Bluewave is a good poster but he loves the Euro way too much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Bluewave is a good poster but he loves the Euro way too much To be fair his thoughts and posts about the pattern thus far have been dead on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Bluewave was spot on with everything...I hope to see him come back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Its a shame people keep leaving, Its good contributors too that end up leaving. I dont get it. I really dont know where the negative attacks come from because the discussion on these boards are about weather, which we have no control over whatsoever. It is so much fun going back over previous storm threads like sandy and boxing day ect when models take and give storms. Back then it was awesome waking up to 10 -15 pages of threads when an awesome overnight run happened. Hopefully it will happen like that again. We all want snow and big storms but its not like we can make them magically appear. Getting on someone like doorman because he keeps posting GFS showing the pacjet blasting the west coast , or bluewave explaing via the Euro what is negative about the pattern is just plain wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Bluewave is a good poster but he loves the Euro way too much The guy has been killing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 3, 2015 Author Share Posted January 3, 2015 Its a shame people keep leaving, Its good contributors too that end up leaving. I dont get it. I really dont know where the negative attacks come from because the discussion on these boards are about weather, which we have no control over whatsoever. It is so much fun going back over previous storm threads like sandy and boxing day ect when models take and give storms. Back then it was awesome waking up to 10 -15 pages of threads when an awesome overnight run happened. Hopefully it will happen like that again. We all want snow and big storms but its not like we can make them magically appear. Getting on someone like doorman because he keeps posting GFS showing the pacjet blasting the west coast , or bluewave explaing via the Euro what is negative about the pattern is just plain wrong. I didn't really see any negative attacks against bluewave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 I didn't really see any negative attacks against bluewave Neither did I and I hope he comes back. He usually doesn't get too annoyed by weenies...but I do see most of his posts all over this board are gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 The guy has been killing it. Chris is a weather bookworm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Did bluewave leave the board? I hope not Dont think so but his posts from earlier seem to have disappeared Only his quotes are left...hope he's still here. I am still here. For the time being, I will focus more on the weather events coming up through 120 hrs. It seems like speculation beyond 5 days creates too much anger from some posters especially when the winter gets off to such a disappointing start compared to expectations. I love the weather and climate too much to get into debates about long range model solutions that may or may not happen anyway. It's never my intention to cause disputes in the threads which takes away from the appreciation of all things weather and climate. So I removed my posts that seemed to be angering some to keep the peace in the thread. When you think about it, it's really not worth it debating model solutions past 5 days that have lower skill anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 In general something has happened over the last two years or so i guess. Still have no idea what happened in the philly forum with Tom and the others. Hopefully everyone comes back . I dont know why people cant ignore a post or two from someone if the dont agree. Most of us have been reading and posting since wwb or eastern and like the models you learn biases whether good or bad of posters them selves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 I am still here. For the time being, I will focus more on the weather events coming up through 120 hrs. It seems like speculation beyond 5 days creates too much anger from some posters especially when the winter gets off to such a disappointing start compared to expectations. I love the weather and climate too much to get into debates about long range model solutions that may or may not happen anyway. It's never my intention to cause disputes in the threads which takes away from the appreciation of all things weather and climate. So I removed my posts that seemed to be angering some to keep the peace in the thread. When you think about it, it's really not worth it debating model solutions past 5 days that have lower skill anyway. You have the right to an opinion. I for one love reading your posts. They are always well thought out.I don't trust any model past 60-72 hrs this year. I also don't agree with your warm January prediction but at least you laid your thoughts out coherently and backed by science. Edit: hate auto correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 I am still here. For the time being, I will focus more on the weather events coming up through 120 hrs. It seems like speculation beyond 5 days creates too much anger from some posters especially when the winter gets off to such a disappointing start compared to expectations. I love the weather and climate too much to get into debates about long range model solutions that may or may not happen anyway. It's never my intention to cause disputes in the threads which takes away from the appreciation of all things weather and climate. So I removed my posts that seemed to be angering some to keep the peace in the thread. When you think about it, it's really not worth it debating model solutions past 5 days that have lower skill anyway. Chris your stuff is great. None of the post are remotely viewed as a dispute. The opinions are great, you are always on point and we only differ on minutia but that makes for a better weather board. But we like the LR ideas. We get to see the differences and I think that's a good thing my man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Chris your stuff is great. None of the post are remotely viewed as a dispute. The opinions are great, you are always on point and we only differ on minutia but that makes for a better weather board. But we like the LR ideas. We get to see the differences and I think that's a good thing my man Yup if everyone had the same opinion, this board would be a snoozefest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Chris your stuff is great. None of the post are remotely viewed as a dispute. The opinions are great, you are always on point and we only differ on minutia but that makes for a better weather board. But we like the LR ideas. We get to see the differences and I think that's a good thing my man Agree as well. But I think there should be a long range thread and short/medium range thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 I am still here. For the time being, I will focus more on the weather events coming up through 120 hrs. It seems like speculation beyond 5 days creates too much anger from some posters especially when the winter gets off to such a disappointing start compared to expectations. I love the weather and climate too much to get into debates about long range model solutions that may or may not happen anyway. It's never my intention to cause disputes in the threads which takes away from the appreciation of all things weather and climate. So I removed my posts that seemed to be angering some to keep the peace in the thread. When you think about it, it's really not worth it debating model solutions past 5 days that have lower skill anyway. Why remove posts? That's what the forum is for...to talk about weather. Unless, the posts are degrading or insulting...but I highly doubt that coming from you. You have some great posts man. There is no right or wrong when discussing the 11-15 day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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