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Winter 2014-15 Banter Thread


Stormlover74

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Cpt Janks phony phone call was still the all time best during the OJ chase

Prompted Al Michaels to jump in mid way and alert the host.

 

Its too bad the defendant caught another charge which precludes his search for the real killer..

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Reminiscent of the poster "Jebman"...who, ultimately driven to frustration with regards to the lack of snow in northern Virginia...would often post about how he had "given up hope" in actually seeing any live snow at his house...but would rather enjoy a snowstorm vicariously by logging on to Caribou, Maine webcams during snowstorms all winter long. 

I'll be in Texas in two and a half weeks. I'm sure the winter will turn promptly on my departure, as it did in 04-05 and 05-06. 

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great video. aside from the occasional dud, the 21st century has been fantastic for snow lovers in our area. pay back is a b**ch, but what can ya do.

Still got a whole lot of winter to go and yes, this has been a great century thus far snow wise and the most prolific 14 years since record keeping began.

Edit 2nd most prolific. The period between 1872 and 1886 produced 34.9" where as the current snowy era between 2000 and 2014 produced 33.4"

That being said if central park can average 30.1" over this and next winter, that would beat the previous 14 year period by .1"; not that anyone really keeps 14 yr running averages but it's fun and shows how, in this present climate of uber UHI, this century has true been remarkable snowfall wise.

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This is why I believe for immediate nyc area, nj, those saying the SE ridge would be your friend, etc forgot their local climatology. The se ridge is killing us and is rarely ever a good thing for the city, coast and immediate burbs. You want the cold suppressed look and then start from there. You'll almost always find the moisture for it to snow.

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I'm an old timer 43 years old, don't know how many winters I have seen where all seem lost ...then poof. .storms ..appear..cold air need not be artic..in my opinion may not get blizzard in Jan but will get our first taste of snow some point this month ..last few years have really spoiled many ..despite LT forecast that all but promised lots of snow ..we are not owed snow lol ...patience is key ..in .my eyes Feb is going to be the jackpot month. .if I crash and burn with that statement so be it; this is the banter thread right ..with that said regardless of what models show I will not give up on winter until March 20...after that point yes. It can snow but for coast.. City..etc. Mostly garbage snow ..time will tell people ..

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I'm an old timer 43 years old, don't know how many winters I have seen where all seem lost ...then poof. .storms ..appear..cold air need not be artic..in my opinion may not get blizzard in Jan but will get our first taste of snow some point this month ..last few years have really spoiled many ..despite LT forecast that all but promised lots of snow ..we are not owed snow lol ...patience is key ..in .my eyes Feb is going to be the jackpot month. .if I crash and burn with that statement so be it; this is the banter thread right ..with that said regardless of what models show I will not give up on winter until March 20...after that point yes. It can snow but for coast.. City..etc. Mostly garbage snow ..time will tell people ..

I'm the same age.   Seen alot of great winters and alot of garbage winters and a few run of the mill average winters.  This one IMO is going to the garbage bin....great pattern's always a few weeks away, nothing goes as thought (no -AO or NAO this year, SE ridge from hell etc etc)

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That's the last time I trust long range forecasts. Good god have they been awful almost verifying the total opposite of what they showed starting with last years hurricane season to last winter, this November, and now this winter.

I'll buy any summer forecast because those are pretty easy to forecast and no one will notice the inaccuracy because it's usually insignificant but nothing beyond that.

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That's the last time I trust long range forecasts. Good god have they been awful almost verifying the total opposite of what they showed starting with last years hurricane season to last winter, this November, and now this winter.

I'll buy any summer forecast because those are pretty easy to forecast and no one will notice the inaccuracy because it's usually insignificant but nothing beyond that.

Totally agree, the science just isn't there yet. Not even close. 

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That's the last time I trust long range forecasts. Good god have they been awful almost verifying the total opposite of what they showed starting with last years hurricane season to last winter, this November, and now this winter.

I'll buy any summer forecast because those are pretty easy to forecast and no one will notice the inaccuracy because it's usually insignificant but nothing beyond that.

Long range forecasting is never an exact science and shouldn't be taken as such. The correlation of various indices are rarely (if ever) 100%, and should be taken as general guidance of the most likely evolving pattern, nothing else. Putting too much stock in long range forecasts isn't good for your heart.
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Anyone claiming victory after our January thaw by stating it will get colder is a genius. Its obviously not going to get warm after a warm up since it will have already been warm and can only get hot or cold and since it will be late january chances are about 99% it will get cold again after the thaw before getting hot. Just saying. Way to go Nostradamus.

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Anyone claiming victory after our January thaw by stating it will get colder is a genius. Its obviously not going to get warm after a warm up since it will have already been warm and can only get hot or cold and since it will be late january chances are about 99% it will get cold again after the thaw before getting hot. Just saying. Way to go Nostradamus.

lol. easiest way to make a long range forecast is the following, its winter, it will be cold at times with snow possible, the end

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Last year on Dec 20 th Judah Cohen said winter was over and this year his belief that the AO and winter would lock in from Dec 20 - Feb 20 can only  be met with the hope somehow he turns out right  

 

Buying into LR seasonal forecasts must be done at your own risk .

This resume speaks for itself . 

 

JC is a Reasearch Affiliate at MIT's Parsons Lab which is part of the Civil and Environmental engineering department. Director of Seasonal Forecasting at AER.  currently working on the impacts of soil moisture and snow cover on other climate parameters.  also interested in decadal temperature trends and explaining those trends with large scale climate modes. received a Ph.D. from Columbia University and was also a post-doc at Goddard Institute for Space Studies.

 

Papers .

http://web.mit.edu/jlcohen/www/papers.html 

 

Sometimes the smartest guys in the room miss . 

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I guess the one thing that we can say was that this really didn't come close to the 

winter 89-90 historic surprise. It's one thing for seasonal forecasts to come out cold

in early November and we see that it's not working out as soon as December starts

like this year. But to get 4.7 inches of snow on Thanksgiving and have the temperature

departures in NYC go -10.3 in December followed by +9.6 in January is another story.

I was already thinking how we were on track for another late 70's historic cold winter

by Christmas 1989. I just couldn't believe it when January turned into a sea of warm.

This board would have gone bonkers if it was around back then.

you got that right.   I remember being shocked by the end of Jan and then even Feb and March were inferno's.   Crazy event that year.

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I guess the one thing that we can say was that this really didn't come close to the 

winter 89-90 historic surprise. It's one thing for seasonal forecasts to come out cold

in early November and we see that it's not working out as soon as December starts

like this year. But to get 4.7 inches of snow on Thanksgiving and have the temperature

departures in NYC go -10.3 in December followed by +9.6 in January is another story.

I was already thinking how we were on track for another late 70's historic cold winter

by Christmas 1989. I just couldn't believe it when January turned into a sea of warm.

This board would have gone bonkers if it was around back then.

accuwx said there was big changes coming in January 1990...They were right that time...we did tie a record low in late February 1990 but March saw 85 degrees in mid March after a snowfall and near record lows early in the month...All that cold in December was waisted...

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-EPO alone not enough to help us this year.  We got nothing other than that....if that breaks down, the torch is on.

The - EPO  was not our only factor last winter . 

 

In Jan we had +.97 PNA with a - .96 AO . You don`t have that look here . 

Either that PAC jet has to slow down or we need some high latitude blocking .ASAP.

 

 

Just posted that 

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The - EPO  was not our only factor last winter . 

 

In Jan we had +.97 PNA with a - .96 AO . You don`t have that look here . 

Either that PAC jet has to slow down or we need some high latitude blocking .ASAP.

 

 

Just posted that 

 

Agree...problem is the +NAO has locked in this year-going to be hard to change IMO.   AO is the wildcard here

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