Winter 2014-15 Banter Thread

[rgwp96]

There is a difference between a pattern change with a chance of snow and several inches to feet of snow in your backyard. 

 

Too many people judge a "pattern" by how much snow is in their backyard. It's insulting to meteorology to think that way and troll with that type of thinking. 

yes how much snow shouldnt have to do with a pattern change since cold doesnt mean its going to snow. but those temp predictions certainly are worth being trolled on.  going to take some might cold temps to come close to those calls many made.  problem is to many think they have this stuff all figured out but in reality its just a guessing game

[Guest Pamela]

& February 1999 saw a huge snow from an offshore cyclone for the East End...14 inches at Montauk...2 feet over the Cape.

 

February 1989 famous for the "near miss"...two feet for Atlantic City....nothing for NYC...maybe 3 inches brushed eastern LI.

[Guest Pamela]

yes how much snow shouldnt have to do with a pattern change since cold doesnt mean its going to snow. but those temp predictions certainly are worth being trolled on.  going to take some might cold temps to come close to those calls many made.  problem is to many think they have this stuff all figured out but in reality its just a guessing game

 

Long range forecasting is not entirely a "guessing game"...it is more accurately characterized as an educated guess predicated on a series of facts, conditions, and likely to be conditions.  To say it is like throwing darts is quite incorrect...this area of science is slowly improving...but obviously has a ways to go because there are still too many variables out there that can throw things off. 

[MJO812]

This pattern is friggin boring

[rgwp96]

Long range forecasting is not entirely a "guessing game"...it is more accurately characterized as an educated guess predicated on a series of facts, conditions, and likely to be conditions.  To say it is like throwing darts is quite incorrect...this area of science is slowly improving...but obviously has a ways to go because there are still too many variables out there that can throw things off. 

the accuracy involved is probably the same lol

[PB GFI]

The only snowstorms that really mattered to me between PD1 in 1979 and the 90's were 4-6-82, 2-11-83, and 1-23-87.

Think about that April. Lol. Crap decade. That's why I laugh at 30 days of crud.

[Guest Pamela]

Think about that April. Lol. Crap decade. That's why I laugh at 30 days of crud.

The killer in April was in 1997...27 inches (or thereabouts) in Boston...18 inches in northern Westchester...and some mixed rain & snow for NYC. I think it commenced on the last day of March.

[Guest Pamela]

The killer in April was in 1997...27 inches (or thereabouts) in Boston...18 inches in northern Westchester...and some mixed rain & snow for NYC. I think it commenced on the last day of March.

If you think about...April 1996 and April 1997 were probably the snowiest back to back Aprils for the lower elevations in southern New England in the last 100 years.

[Guest Pamela]

If you think about...April 1996 and April 1997 were probably the snowiest back to back Aprils for the lower elevations in southern New England in the last 100 years.

Although, in retrospect, April 1982 & April 1983 were amazingly snowy in SNE...the blizzard of 4/6/1982...then a big rain to snow event on about 4/17/1983...about 8 inches in the Litchfied Hills...then another snowstorm on 4/19/1983...though this one did most of its damage in the Poconos, Catskills, & Kittatinnies.

[doncat]

Looks like another December that fails to fall below 20 degrees in NYC. I can remember all the December lows 

in the single digits from the 70's into the 80's. That -1 for NYC on Christmas 1980 really stands out in my

memory. It makes me feel like I grew up during the little ice age compared to the balmy Decembers over the

last 20 years.

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1980/us1225.php

Was -3 degrees here on Christmas morning 1980 and -1 in 1983... best I could do this month so far is 23 degrees. Remember walking to midnight mass with a temp of +3 degrees.

[bluewave]

Think about that April. Lol. Crap decade. That's why I laugh at 30 days of crud.

 

That was our last blizzard with three consecutive record lows. We'll probably

never see that again unless there is some massive volcanic event.

 

NYC

4/6

21 in 1982

23 in 1881

24 in 1887

4/7

21 in 1982

23 in 1881

24 in 1943

4/8

25 in 1982

26 in 1972

28 in 1920+

[bluewave]

Was -3 degrees here on Christmas morning 1980 and -1 in 1983... best I could do this month so far is 23 degrees. Remember walking to midnight mass with a temp of +3 degrees.

 

The 63 on Christmas 1982 made an interesting contrast  between 1980 and 1983.

We had a nice Christmas football game back in Long Beach since it was so mild out.

[Guest Pamela]

Was -3 degrees here on Christmas morning 1980 and -1 in 1983... best I could do this month so far is 23 degrees. Remember walking to midnight mass with a temp of +3 degrees.

Central Park has recorded a below zero temperature on only 8 days since March 1943...a span of over 71 years...and the coldest it got was a fairly pedestrian -2 F...so it is not a commonplace event.

[SnowGoose69]

I remember a surprise event in early January of 1997. I just recall an area of snow developing offshore and rotating over the city on west. Got a nice 3-4" out of it

Yeah I forecast that event too, everyone I knew was all giddy for days that I hit that, it was a Friday night into Saturday morning event, a weak low formed off Delaware and tracked north but thanks in part both to quick development and a good arctic air mass in place to the west a good shield of snow occurred with it.

[SnowGoose69]

What storm in December in the early to mid 90s dropped 7-9" across NYC and LI when the forecast called for sprinkles?

The closest thing to that was 12/27/90, it was interesting in that at the time it was one of the better forecast snow events beyond 3 days out in that many models and news outlet meteorologists saw it coming. It was not forecast well inside 24 hours, 1-3 was forecast ending was light rain but as often occurs with overrunning storms it surprised us, there were some heavy areas of snow that formed late at night.

[Doorman]

for anyone out of the loop

 

NEG NAO is in

the sin bin... for five days

send him a get well card by P.M.

 

thanks

dm

[Stormlover74]

The closest thing to that was 12/27/90, it was interesting in that at the time it was one of the better forecast snow events beyond 3 days out in that many models and news outlet meteorologists saw it coming. It was not forecast well inside 24 hours, 1-3 was forecast ending was light rain but as often occurs with overrunning storms it surprised us, there were some heavy areas of snow that formed late at night.

Yeah I remember Christmas afternoon a forecast of light snow..then 1-3" and finally on that afternoon before it began amounts were increased to 3-6". It basically snowed 1"/hour overnight and got about 8" imby..with just some sleet on top

[Guest Pamela]

I make 17 posts in this thread in the last hour or so...they're all ignored...I really don't learn...I'm wasting my time here...take care.

[WeatherFox]

Don't take it that way. We are in holiday mode. Stay around!

[rgwp96]

I make 17 posts in this thread in the last hour or so...they're all ignored...I really don't learn...I'm wasting my time here...take care.

I responded to one lol

[MJO812]

I make 17 posts in this thread in the last hour or so...they're all ignored...I really don't learn...I'm wasting my time here...take care.

I'm watching simpsons

[rclab]

I make 17 posts in this thread in the last hour or so...they're all ignored...I really don't learn...I'm wasting my time here...take care.

 Ms Pamela,

I and probably many others, who post rarely, think of you and some others as a most rewarding read.

.......... as always, r

[White Gorilla]

The Pac jet firehouse is going to destroy the epo ridge after a few days. Trust me its a temporary feature. The pac jet means business. If one can get the disturbances to undercut the ridge rather than try and plow thru it we may be in business. I dont see that on about half of guidance. Im unfortunately being the pessimist regarding this because we have been down this road before in years past. Once that pac jet is roaring its tough stopping it. Last year the pac worked out for us. Will it turn in our favor? I really hope so but i am just being pessimistically cautious about this feature and its tenure.

Any indication the QBO is going to rise towards neutral anytime soon to help slow down the fire hose?

[Rjay]

Probably December 27 -28, 1990

It was my favorite snow event when I was a kid until 1996.

[Rjay]

The closest thing to that was 12/27/90, it was interesting in that at the time it was one of the better forecast snow events beyond 3 days out in that many models and news outlet meteorologists saw it coming. It was not forecast well inside 24 hours, 1-3 was forecast ending was light rain but as often occurs with overrunning storms it surprised us, there were some heavy areas of snow that formed late at night.

I distinctly remember watching TWC and my local forecast had drizzle and a high of 50. Well it was drizzling when I went into my youth basketball game and it was snowing when I came out. The snow came down harder as the afternoon wore on and ending around 9 or so. I measured 8" in Lynbrook.

[Rjay]

Good stuff in this thread guys and gals.

[NorthShoreWx]

Long Island only saw two halfway decent ones during the 1970's & 1980's...a 4 to 7 inch event on 12/12/1982 (typical Hatteras to Cape Cod track) & 12/13/1988...which was confined to west central Suffolk County...and put down around a foot from about Patchogue to Port Jefferson.

 

The best snowstorm of the 1990's in December was on 12/19/1995...with up to a foot in spots...but far more widespread than the Norlun event in 1988.

There were a few other moderate snowfalls on LI during that period.  Syosset had 6.1" on 12/22/1975 (storm total was 7.1"), 5.8" 12/25-26/1976, and 5.7" 12/27/1984. 

 

Of course it was near 70 a day or two after the 12/27/84 snowfall.

[SnowGoose69]

I distinctly remember watching TWC and my local forecast had drizzle and a high of 50. Well it was drizzling when I went into my youth basketball game and it was snowing when I came out. The snow came down harder as the afternoon wore on and ending around 9 or so. I measured 8" in Lynbrook.

 

That could be 12/11/93 but I don't think anyone saw quite that much, the timing sounds close though.

[Doorman]

Any indication the QBO is going to rise towards neutral anytime soon to help slow down the fire hose?

 

 

W.G

tell me what you make of this

 

Current West PAC 200mb guidance

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/westpac/winds/wgmsdlm6.GIF

[NorthShoreWx]

There were a few other moderate snowfalls on LI during that period.  Syosset had 6.1" on 12/22/1975 (storm total was 7.1"), 5.8" 12/25-26/1976, and 5.7" 12/27/1984. 

 

Of course it was near 70 a day or two after the 12/27/84 snowfall.

 

December 26, 1976 9AM Syosset (NE Nassau County):

 

 

 

Note the pine tree expressing its disdain for those who were canceling that winter at the time.