EasternLI Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 What is so great. Couple of weenies talking about what could or may occur.."yawn" I would rather twitter with Santa Claus LOL....Masiello is HM from this board. It's not just some dude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 LOL....Masiello is HM from this board. It's not just some dude That's lost on many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 What is so great. Couple of weenies talking about what could or may occur.."yawn" I would rather twitter with Santa Claus HM is one of the best long range mets on this board..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Well the EURO ENS look better than 00Z at the end of the run, more of a -AO +PNA look. Hopefully, it's not a mirage. However, everyone has canceled winter, so no one will see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Hawaii getting there's THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HONOLULU HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARDWARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM HST WEDNESDAY. THEBLIZZARD WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.* LOCATIONS...MAUNA KEA AND MAUNA LOA ABOVE 11500 FEET.* HAZARD TYPES...VERY STRONG WINDS AND BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS. HEAVYSNOW...BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...AND LIGHTNING STRIKES.* ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO 12 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHERDRIFTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Dan I believe some of those areas average 25-35 inches per year or more, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Hawaii getting there's THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HONOLULU HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM HST WEDNESDAY. THE BLIZZARD WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * LOCATIONS...MAUNA KEA AND MAUNA LOA ABOVE 11500 FEET. * HAZARD TYPES...VERY STRONG WINDS AND BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS. HEAVY SNOW...BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...AND LIGHTNING STRIKES. * ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO 12 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHER DRIFTS. Damn.....severe thundersnow......how I wish to experience that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Driving up i95, currently around south of the border. Very intense rainfall rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Oh the joy of a warm wind driven rain tomorrow. So awful Jack Frost would rather commit suicide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Oh the joy of a warm wind driven rain tomorrow. So awful Jack Frost would rather commit suicide. Yea. Tomorrow is going to be a tough time for us snow weenies. Don't despair, good times ahead with impending pattern change. Euro and GFS ensemble means were very bullish today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 What is so great. Couple of weenies talking about what could or may occur.."yawn" I would rather twitter with Santa Claus lol. what i dont understand is why are people still such big believers in long term forecasts, they are a joke. when will people realize this. its unbelievable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Yea. Tomorrow is going to be a tough time for us snow weenies. Don't despair, good times ahead with impending pattern change. Euro and GFS ensemble means were very bullish today. If models are correct then things will get more frustrating with a lot of close calls but ultimately the SE ridge will cause every storm to cut inland giving us rain. Latest Gfs already shows the two threats it had cutting yet again and there's nothing stoping it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 If models are correct then things will get more frustrating with a lot of close calls but ultimately the SE ridge will cause every storm to cut inland giving us rain. Latest Gfs already shows the two threats it had cutting yet again and there's nothing stoping it.-Epo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 If models are correct then things will get more frustrating with a lot of close calls but ultimately the SE ridge will cause every storm to cut inland giving us rain. Latest Gfs already shows the two threats it had cutting yet again and there's nothing stoping it.Look again. PV moves North of Montreal and blocks the systems from cutting so there is in fact something to stop them from cutting. Suppression would be the bigger concern here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Look again. PV moves North of Montreal and blocks the systems from cutting so there is in fact something to stop them from cutting. Suppression would be the bigger concern here. Models are showing a stormy pattern coming up.0z Euro was a nice run for the area with multiple waves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poleshiftnow Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 If models are correct then things will get more frustrating with a lot of close calls but ultimately the SE ridge will cause every storm to cut inland giving us rain. Latest Gfs already shows the two threats it had cutting yet again and there's nothing stoping it. You are clue less lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 HM is one of the best long range mets on this board..... No such thing as a "best Long range met " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 DGEX for Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 If models are correct then things will get more frustrating with a lot of close calls but ultimately the SE ridge will cause every storm to cut inland giving us rain. Latest Gfs already shows the two threats it had cutting yet again and there's nothing stoping it. Brutal post. Ski, if you don't know how to read models or patterns, why continue to comment on them? If you ask questions, many here would be willing to educate you. In this case, you have misread the models, assumed the se ridge will win out in all cases, and incorrectly assumed all storms will cut, probably because you just recently learned about the -NAO and believe that is the only way to stop us from getting cutters. It's a classic case of someone just learning the key features, and without knowing the full picture, trying to make forecasts. It's like when someone learns a new word and they start using it incorrectly in every other sentence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Brutal post. Ski, if you don't know how to read models or patterns, why continue to comment on them? If you ask questions, many here would be willing to educate you. In this case, you have misread the models, assumed the se ridge will win out in all cases, and incorrectly assumed all storms will cut, probably because you just recently learned about the -NAO and believe that is the only way to stop us from getting cutters. It's a classic case of someone just learning the key features, and without knowing the full picture, trying to make forecasts. It's like when someone learns a new word and they start using it incorrectly in every other sentence. Absolutely do I not think the -NAO is the only thing that can stop cutters because we've seen cutters even with a -NAO. My concern is the SE ridge and that as we get closer to an event it verifies stronger as one of Bluewaves maps posted showed. I knew about the NAO for years it's not recently learned so you have no idea what you're talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Absolutely do I not think the -NAO is the only thing that can stop cutters because we've seen cutters even with a -NAO. My concern is the SE ridge and that as we get closer to an event it verifies stronger as one of Bluewaves maps posted showed. I knew about the NAO for years it's not recently learned so you have no idea what you're talking about. It's one thing to be concerned about the SE ridge, as we all are. It's another to assume the SE ridge will win out with no meteorological reasoning. That's what you are doing. Luckily for you, I do know what I am talking about, and I am happy to help educate you in this stuff if you are willing. First lesson...did you know that having a SE ridge isn't necessarily a bad thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 -Epo The EPO can shape things in many different ways. Last year it was one of the strongest EPOs we've ever seen and it stretched across the pole, but that won't be the case this year otherwise we wouldn't even have to worry about any SE ridging. The good news is that cold air will continuously be filtered into Canada and into the US so we can avoid disasters like 97-98 and 11-12 where warm air prevailed. We may not get the pattern forecasters predicted but it may not be a disaster either as long as the EPO is favorable as well as the PV placement. And of course I know the SE ridge isn't an automatic death sentence. Actually I'm really interested to see what happens in January where typically we stay cold and dry due to a suppressed jet stream. If the cold air is on our side of the globe and the -EPO remains then there are likely to be a few track worthy events. I read something about a possible SSW event also that could be ongoing, which would make a tremendous difference the 2nd half of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 24, 2014 Author Share Posted December 24, 2014 I don't remember it being nearly this bad in 2011-12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cjr231 Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Honestly, minus Snoski's 18 reminders a day that this winter has stunk so far and that he thinks it will continue to for varying reasons, in my opinion most people have been quiet or are handling it pretty decently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 It's become a status thing to be negative and act like you're "above" your average weenie and you can see though the Operational models and derive what you do from the overall pattern. They're basically playing the laws of averages and there's a reason why NYC averages just 26 or so inches of snow a year for such a wet locale. It's very hard to look at the upcoming pattern and not be at the very least "cautiously optimistic", if you only see a continuation of doom and gloom patterns than you're basically the polar opposite of Anthony (who I like a lot, but he does wear weenie glasses). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 When you've had nothing but rain and a lot of rain from "coastal storms in December" plus nonstop dreariness, pouring rains and balmy temps (50s and 60s)(for the holidays along with the promise of change that's constantly delayed then yea one may get a little bit more negative than usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 It has been quite an entertaining experience sitting on the sidelines the last week by my own choice watching how some of the characters operate around here - actually Snoski has been warning everyone the last month about the problems with the pattern change and he was skeptical about us returning to a cold and snowy pattern right away - and he was right - here we sit on the 24th with rain and above normal temps with no definite snow storms in sight just a bunch of model nonsense in the longer range - anyone who thinks the pattern is just going to suddenly flip to cold and snowy on December 28th and lock in should think again IMO. Sure as we travel through the last few days of December into early January we will have cold shots with the chance of a frozen event or 2 but there are no signs of any cold snowy pattern locking in with that raging pacific jet - little or no blocking and an AO that is not cooperating ........... Absolutely false. He's been wrong numerous times. Being a skeptic is one thing. Being a skeptic and having to be repeatedly corrected as to what is occurring and what is being modeled is another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 When you've had nothing but rain and a lot of rain from "coastal storms in December" plus nonstop dreariness, pouring rains and balmy temps (50s and 60s)(for the holidays along with the promise of change that's constantly delayed then yea one may get a little bit more negative than usual. Sometimes it is important to develop other interests in life; when one devotes too much time & energy to an endeavor that repeatedly brings them heartache and sorrow...it is often prudent to focus on some other activity...one that has a less deleterious impact on one's state of mind and emotional well being. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Absolutely false. He's been wrong numerous times. Being a skeptic is one thing. Being a skeptic and having to be repeatedly corrected as to what is occurring and what is being modeled is another. Going by that logic then you would have to admit most on here have been wrong numerous times. The models have been extremely difficult to gauge so I'll give those Mets and experienced amateurs a break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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