Doorman Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Doorman you've proven Ncep products to be quite robust, even superior at times. What do you think these great American products will show come late Jan Feb? Feel free to use your crystal 8 ball. 3.5 grams of meth or coke....... ........now that's a great american product ,right there LOL 16.5 median FTW if we are < 3 for the month 1033mb Greenland http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/UA/OPC_ATL.gif this http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/44997-december-medlong-range-disco/?view=findpost&p=3206166 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 01-02 again...anyone take a look at the U.S. Snow depth map? Disgusting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 01-02 again...anyone take a look at the U.S. Snow depth map? Disgusting http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/interactive/html/map.html How much will wash out or melt by the new year??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/interactive/html/map.html How much will wash out or melt by the new year??? All of the ski areas in nne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Couple of days earlier with the warmth last year vs this year with 62 and 70 degree temps on the 21st and 22nd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 I've always considered Veruca a role model...along with Blair Warner...who I always felt possessed a certain je ne sais quoi that Blair Waldorf was lacking... Currently 43 F on the N. Shore of central Long Island. A light breeze out of the NE blows from time to time at less than 5 mph. The current snow depth is 0.0 inches. That young lady couldn't be your role model. No one could, even from afar (and well in pespective), fall in love with a Veruca type. You, i feel, are qute different from that template. Besides if you came from Over The Rainbow, that story would have had a much more enjoyable ending. If you ran the chocolate factory you would have the Oompaa Loompaas enrolled in Penn. State as Met. majors with Tornado chasing for a Spring Brake activity. I love your Posts, thank you. Rich Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Look at the bright side it may be a wet, rainy night out but at least it's not bitterly cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cjr231 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Serious question. When was the last time the sun was out? I honestly can't remember seeing it in the month of December more than 2 or 3 times. If its not raining its been overcast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Serious question. When was the last time the sun was out? I honestly can't remember seeing it in the month of December more than 2 or 3 times. If its not raining its been overcast. It has been awhile but we really needed the rain and still do. The sun will be out by Thursday afternoon and Friday will be sunny. I somehow doubt you would be complaining about the lack of sun if mostly snow had fallen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 ...d.sutherland sounds ready to throw in the towel..not quite..but paints a realistic view of what has happened and whats ahead ( AO going to +5.0 by early jan. )..disappointing for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cjr231 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 It has been awhile but we really needed the rain and still do. The sun will be out by Thursday afternoon and Friday will be sunny. I somehow doubt you would be complaining about the lack of sun if mostly snow had fallen. Oh, Im not complaining about the lack of snow in any way. Its just been so dreary for the last few weeks it starts to wear on you, snow or no snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Oh, Im not complaining about the lack of snow in any way. Its just been so dreary for the last few weeks it starts to wear on you, snow or no snow. At least it's happening now and not during the warmer months when people are trying to take outdoor vacations. It was a dry Spring and and an even dryer Summer so you knew things were going to balance out eventually. Thankfully most of the rain has been spread out enough and only briefly heavy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 ...d.sutherland sounds ready to throw in the towel..not quite..but paints a realistic view of what has happened and whats ahead ( AO going to +5.0 by early jan. )..disappointing for sure. +5? Wow. That would be quite the opposite of what most forecasts looked like - good writeup by Don and interesting note of a cold Nov in 91-92 only to be followed by a warm winter - http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/44807-winter-2014-2015-medium-term-discussion/page-7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 I believe the AO was mostly positive last winter also so it doesn't always correlate to warmth. The EPO plays the bigger role by far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 I believe the AO was mostly positive last winter also so it doesn't always correlate to warmth. The EPO plays the bigger role by far. True, but granted it's one member, but if we get a +4 or +5 AO, I'd be betting on warmth unless the -EPO is very deep the other way, like -4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Oh, Im not complaining about the lack of snow in any way. Its just been so dreary for the last few weeks it starts to wear on you, snow or no snow. It really suits how depressing this month has been to all winter lovers and it'll even be more depressing when the winds and heavy rains start cranking tomorrow with temps near 60F. As far as this winter goes I guess having such a cold November CONUS wide was actually more of an omen rather than a blessing and if it verified warm initially then perhaps our whole pattern would actually be going with the plan. Instead the cold November is following some of the infamous and ugly winters of the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 23, 2014 Author Share Posted December 23, 2014 +5? Wow. That would be quite the opposite of what most forecasts looked like - good writeup by Don and interesting note of a cold Nov in 91-92 only to be followed by a warm winter - http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/44807-winter-2014-2015-medium-term-discussion/page-7 Nov 91 was not cold though. Was around +1 and we torched the end of the month. Not saying we can't repeat that winter. All options seem to be on table. Including the 1 and done winter of 94-95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Nov 91 was not cold though. Was around +1 and we torched the end of the month. Not saying we can't repeat that winter. All options seem to be on table. Including the 1 and done winter of 94-95 I wonder if he was talking nationally? Agree that all options are on the table outside of 01-02 and 11-12-seems too stormy for those years to occur again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 So are you people saying is that there won't be a White Christmas this year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 23, 2014 Author Share Posted December 23, 2014 I wonder if he was talking nationally? Agree that all options are on the table outside of 01-02 and 11-12-seems too stormy for those years to occur again. 97-98 was very stormy but strong el nino kept everything driving rainstorms until late march we managed 3" on the back side of a departing noreaster. I would think the stormy pattern would mean we'd have to eventually cash in on something. An 83 repeat would probably satisfy most here even if it was just one storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 23, 2014 Author Share Posted December 23, 2014 So are you people saying is that there won't be a White Christmas this year? Lol better shot at a white easter this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 97-98 was very stormy but strong el nino kept everything driving rainstorms until late march we managed 3" on the back side of a departing noreaster. I would think the stormy pattern would mean we'd have to eventually cash in on something. An 83 repeat would probably satisfy most here even if it was just one storm I'd take that in a heartbeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Lol better shot at a white easter this year Some of us had a white Thanksgiving, so a white Easter would top it off. Easter is 4/6 so we could go for a 4/6/82 redux Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mranger48 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Fwiw great dialogue going on Between Tom fuller (tombo from philly board) and Anthony masiello on Twitter. Most of u probably have been reading but figured I'd share just incase anyone was interested: https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/547404378580471808 Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Some of us had a white Thanksgiving, so a white Easter would top it off. Easter is 4/6 so we could go for a 4/6/82 redux Very possible even Easter ends up colder than Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 ...d.sutherland sounds ready to throw in the towel..not quite..but paints a realistic view of what has happened and whats ahead ( AO going to +5.0 by early jan. )..disappointing for sure. To reduce the risk of confusion, I also noted that it's still premature to conclude that we're headed for a warm winter. The AO forecast has been quite volatile lately. In general, the extended guidance has been erratic. I do think there's some possibility of a warm winter (perhaps between a 1-in-4 to 1-in-3 probability right now). Should the strongly positive AO develop, then the odds of such an outcome would increase. I'm still not convinced that's the most likely scenario, but could, of course, be wrong. Another thing to bear in mind, with larger implications than the upcoming winter, would be the possibility that an AO+ or strongly AO+ winter would undermine the early promise with regard to the Snow Advance Index tied to October changes in Eurasian Snow Cover. The question as to whether the early strong results were a product of small sample size would gain importance. The physical explanation for the SAI seems sound, so I'm still inclined to believe that in the end the AO will become predominantly negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 To reduce the risk of confusion, I also noted that it's still premature to conclude that we're headed for a warm winter. The AO forecast has been quite volatile lately. In general, the extended guidance has been erratic. I do think there's some possibility of a warm winter (perhaps between a 1-in-4 to 1-in-3 probability right now). Should the strongly positive AO develop, then the odds of such an outcome would increase. I'm still not convinced that's the most likely scenario, but could, of course, be wrong. Another thing to bear in mind, with larger implications than the upcoming winter, would be the possibility that an AO+ or strongly AO+ winter would undermine the early promise with regard to the Snow Advance Index tied to October changes in Eurasian Snow Cover. The question as to whether the early strong results were a product of small sample size would gain importance. The physical explanation for the SAI seems sound, so I'm still inclined to believe that in the end the AO will become predominantly negative. If a +AO were to occur this winter with the extreme Eurasian snow cover, it would be unprecedented in meteorological terms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 2014-15 winter, the winter of the fail nino Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Fwiw great dialogue going on Between Tom fuller (tombo from philly board) and Anthony masiello on Twitter. Most of u probably have been reading but figured I'd share just incase anyone was interested: https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/547404378580471808 Sent from my iPhone What is so great. Couple of weenies talking about what could or may occur.."yawn" I would rather twitter with Santa Claus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 What is so great. Couple of weenies talking about what could or may occur.."yawn" I would rather twitter with Santa Claus Is he on Twitter now too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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