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Winter 2014-15 Banter Thread


Stormlover74

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I've always felt that a majority of the snow this Winter was going to fall in 3 or 4 larger events, and I still feel that way. We've had many Winters where everything looked far worse than this. The negativity in here is pretty unberable. Come see me in February if things still look bad.

How many more significant storms than three or four do any winters have?

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People starting with those "if it ain't gonna snow it might as well be warm" posts...could never understand that from a weather enthusiast.

If the weather is gonna be boring, it should be comfortable at the least. But everyone has their own preferences, even weather enthusiasts.

I wish it was 82 with clear skies and low humidity right now, with mid-90's and high DP's on the way for Xmas.

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not negativity, not at all but it is called being A realist and just looking out your window and not at some hour 300 of a model run, the pattern as of late has been what? Coastal huggers or cutters. Can you honestly say you see something strong enough to change the pattern that we are in? If so please explain as I would love to hear your insight that's whywe are here to discuss and learn.

 

Agreed, what's the point of looking at the long range of the models if they change every few days?  Its the end of December, and we have a couple more weeks of known crapshoot weather, so by that time what are the chances things will change?  They won't.  Every time we get a glimmer of hope in the models its gets ripped away and pushed further off into the future.  Happens every crappy winter....we say "looks like it could flip soon"....and we keep saying that until the daffodils start popping...how often do we say "in the very long range looks like it will be crappy"? Hardly ever.  :cry:  :cry:  :cry:   And yes I'm trolling :poster_oops:

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Nat gas collapses—‘This is panic selling’

 

http://www.cnbc.com/id/102289402

 

Call it the perfect nonstorm.

Natural gas was cratering Monday, as mild weather forecasts compound a supply surplus and a general energy market swoon.

Nat gas futures were as low as $3.12 per million British thermal units, which is the lowest level since January 2013, and represents a decline of 15 percent in two trading sessions. (The futures have ticked a bit higher after hitting those lows at 9:44 a.m. ET, but are still down sharply on the day.)

The backdrop for the move is Thursday's natural gas inventory report, which showed a year-over-year supply surplus for the first time since December 2012. However, it was not until this news was compounded by a mild seven-day forecast for the Northeast that nat gas futures really started to plunge.

 

And with this latest forecast, traders who have recently gotten long seem to have finally given up on the hope that a repeat of last winter is ahead, when frigid weather met shrinking supplies to send nat gas futures as high as $6.49.

On Monday, then, the many traders who had been hoping for another superspike, "are panicking out of the trade" said Bill Baruch, senior market strategist at Chicago-based iiTrader. "This is panic selling right here."

 
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Nat gas collapses—‘This is panic selling’

 

http://www.cnbc.com/id/102289402

 

Call it the perfect nonstorm.

Natural gas was cratering Monday, as mild weather forecasts compound a supply surplus and a general energy market swoon.

Nat gas futures were as low as $3.12 per million British thermal units, which is the lowest level since January 2013, and represents a decline of 15 percent in two trading sessions. (The futures have ticked a bit higher after hitting those lows at 9:44 a.m. ET, but are still down sharply on the day.)

The backdrop for the move is Thursday's natural gas inventory report, which showed a year-over-year supply surplus for the first time since December 2012. However, it was not until this news was compounded by a mild seven-day forecast for the Northeast that nat gas futures really started to plunge.

 

And with this latest forecast, traders who have recently gotten long seem to have finally given up on the hope that a repeat of last winter is ahead, when frigid weather met shrinking supplies to send nat gas futures as high as $6.49.

On Monday, then, the many traders who had been hoping for another superspike, "are panicking out of the trade" said Bill Baruch, senior market strategist at Chicago-based iiTrader. "This is panic selling right here."

We crushed them in november. They got their pound of flesh back.

Crude has pulled everything lower. Plus there is so much December inventory in the pipeline January is going to have be 78 ish to run it like last year.

That's not it the cards

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you're giving up on the big cold? :snowing:

To recap a month of posts.

Dec 1 thru 15 no torch and below normal.

Dec 20 thru 31 below normal

Pattern change Dec 28th .

Some snow xmas week.

So far those are all my posts. I will give u 1000 bucks if u find me saying BIG COLD.

You will find me saying stop being a baby and winter is not over and I think jan Feb March should be the crux of winter.

Now what is Jan thru March get us. Normal w above normal snow But no big sustained cold. You will find me saying if u were expecting last winter you were irrational .

All those Dec posts are there to read. Pattern change Dec 28th was last position .

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To recap a month of posts.

Dec 1 thru 15 no torch and below normal.

Dec 20 thru 31 below normal

Pattern change Dec 28th .

Some snow xmas week.

So far those are all my posts. I will give u 1000 bucks if u find me saying BIG COLD.

You will find me saying stop being a baby and winter is not over and I think jan Feb March should be the crux of winter.

Now what is Jan thru March get us. Normal w above normal snow But no big sustained cold. You will find me saying if u were expecting last winter you were irrational .

All those Dec posts are there to read. Pattern change Dec 28th was last position .

Relax, a little ribbing in the banter thread for you... :whistle: what does concern me is the Euro showing the dump of cold in western and central states and also the GFS ensembles moving a bit that way at 18z....

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I've always considered Veruca a role model...along with Blair Warner...who I always felt possessed a certain je ne sais quoi that Blair Waldorf was lacking...

 

Currently 43 F on the N. Shore of central Long Island.  A light breeze out of the NE blows from time to time at less than 5 mph.  The current snow depth is 0.0 inches. 

I swear, I've never see a stretch like this here...40-45 by day 30-35 by night and cloudy all the time....

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Relax, a little ribbing in the banter thread for you... :whistle: what does concern me is the Euro showing the dump of cold in western and central states and also the GFS ensembles moving a bit that way at 18z....

Ok that's kool , didn`t mean to come off like a %$^ . Bad enough my Dec 20-31 looks shaky and am gona have to swing it out with DM .  I don`t wana be on the hook like Judah Cohen .

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I swear, I've never see a stretch like this here...40-45 by day 30-35 by night and cloudy all the time....

 

That would probably be the winters from 1988 - 1992, 1995, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2002, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2012.

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Ok that's kool , didn`t mean to come off like a %$^ . Bad enough my Dec 20-31 looks shaky and am gona have to swing it out with DM .  I don`t wana be on the hook like Judah Cohen .

In the words of Larry Merchant....

"Goodnight Sweet Prince"

 

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Doorman you've proven Ncep products to be quite robust, even superior at times. What do you think these great American products will show come late Jan Feb?

Feel free to use your crystal 8 ball.

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