Winter 2014-15 Banter Thread

[NorthShoreWx]

you were in a good spot for that storm, about 17 inches give or take, correct?

Correct, 17.0" here.  Core of best band was just to my east.  BNL (OKX office) had 26"

[NorthShoreWx]

I'm buying everyone this for Christmas

 

 My new best friend.  PM'ing my mailing address

[SnoSki14]

Maybe we'll get some snow in the historically lackluster early Jan timeframes

[Radders]

Maybe we'll get some snow in the historically lackluster early Jan timeframes

I have no scientific evidence to back this up, but I have this weird feeling that we are going to have a dud of a winter.  I know things can very quickly turn on a dime, but the horrendous December pattern along with the delayed transition and rain storms over Christmas has clearly gotten into my head lol.    I hope the next week or so starts to present some real opportunities to track storms.. This last week or two has been very frustrating, even though we knew it would be a bad stretch.

[Monmouth_County_Jacpot]

I have no scientific evidence to back this up, but I have this weird feeling that we are going to have a dud of a winter. I know things can very quickly turn on a dime, but the horrendous December pattern along with the delayed transition and rain storms over Christmas has clearly gotten into my head lol. I hope the next week or so starts to present some real opportunities to track storms.. This last week or two has been very frustrating, even though we knew it would be a bad stretch.

said the same thing I said that the winter patten has be locked in since thanksgiving and the models keep pushing the cold and snow further back with each run, but I was told basically to read more and post less. So I will bide my time for now and have my I told you so moment in March

[Radders]

said the same thing I said that the winter patten has be locked in since thanksgiving and the models keep pushing the cold and snow further back with each run, but I was told basically to read more and post less. So I will bide my time for now and have my I told you so moment in March

lol, well my post is 100% emotional and I have absolutely no basis for it, other feeling bored and frustrated with the weather we have  been dealt with over Christmas.  I tell you , it makes you appreciate how lucky we were to experience the Boxing Day blizzard. However, back to reality, the pattern change looks real, and I trust the analysis that many knowledgable folks have repeatedly stated, so I think we will see a more favorable pattern in January, but I guess we could still be really unlucky, even in a highly favorable pattern.  Highly favorable patterns don't guarantee feet of snow for the area.

[Monmouth_County_Jacpot]

lol, well my post is 100% emotional and I have absolutely no basis for it, other feeling bored and frustrated with the weather we have been dealt with over Christmas. I tell you , it makes you appreciate how lucky we were to experience the Boxing Day blizzard. However, back to reality, the pattern change looks real, and I trust the analysis that many knowledgable folks have repeatedly stated, so I think we will see a more favorable pattern in January, but I guess we could still be really unlucky, even in a highly favorable pattern. Highly favorable patterns don't guarantee feet of snow for the area.

yeah I agree it also doesn't help that we had two fairly large M class solar flares this week

[Radders]

Eh, I am sure we will all do fine when all is said and done.. I am just goofing around and letting off steam.  If you look at it rationally, we have plenty to be excited about... Just have to get through the next week or so.  

I find tracking potential storms just as fun, and for the last week or two, there has really been nothing that has had any legs.  Hopefully that will change in a few more days too.

[NYY_2]

Eh, I am sure we will all do fine when all is said and done.. I am just goofing around and letting off steam.  If you look at it rationally, we have plenty to be excited about... Just have to get through the next week or so.  

I find tracking potential storms just as fun, and for the last week or two, there has really been nothing that has had any legs.  Hopefully that will change in a few more days too.

agreed. waiting for something thats out of your control to happen can be frustrating. Just have to think about the potential rewards. 

[WintersGrasp]

I have no scientific evidence to back this up, but I have this weird feeling that we are going to have a dud of a winter. I know things can very quickly turn on a dime, but the horrendous December pattern along with the delayed transition and rain storms over Christmas has clearly gotten into my head lol. I hope the next week or so starts to present some real opportunities to track storms.. This last week or two has been very frustrating, even though we knew it would be a bad stretch.

Keep a few things in mind.....For one, clearly the entire winter period for us will not be remembered by wall to wall cold and definitely not wall to wall snow. That being said, our area especially is dependent on coastal storms that bring significant accumulations. Our snowiest seasons ever were remembered as such due to significant/extreme coastal systems. In just one to two storms, we can move from much below normal snowfall to much above normal. Personally, I think we do get one or two significant/extreme storm systems that dump a ton of snow on us. At this point, there's just as much going for us as there is against us. All in all, I don't see a lost December as "time wasted".....I just see having the players start to come on the field in early January as ideal, since the propensity for stronger coastal storms is much increased at times in January and much more so in February. Our area, especially in the lower elevations of the coast, is one very difficult area for the pros to forecast snowfall for, especially considering the snowiest winters only make the record books due to 2 or 3 storms which turn into prolific snowmakers, dumping 50-75% of that season's total snowfall. In our area, an incredibly cold winter COULD lead to snowfall in the 15-25 inch range, while an average to slightly below average winter could potentially give us 50 or more inches, just because of a couple storms

[Radders]

Keep a few things in mind.....For one, clearly the entire winter period for us will not be remembered by wall to wall cold and definitely not wall to wall snow. That being said, our area especially is dependent on coastal storms that bring significant accumulations. Our snowiest seasons ever were remembered as such due to significant/extreme coastal systems. In just one to two storms, we can move from much below normal snowfall to much above normal. Personally, I think we do get one or two significant/extreme storm systems that dump a ton of snow on us. At this point, there's just as much going for us as there is against us. All in all, I don't see a lost December as "time wasted".....I just see having the players start to come on the field in early January as ideal, since the propensity for stronger coastal storms is much increased later in January and February. Our area, especially in the lower elevations of the coast, is one very difficult area for the pros to forecast snowfall for, especially considering the snowiest winters only make the record books due to 2 or 3 storms which turn into prolific snowmakers, dumping 50-75% of that season's total snowfall

I agree, with the notion of it being the type of winter that could have a couple of whopper events.. It seems to be that sort of winter based on the way things are setting up.  Only problem is, those types of "go big or go home" winters can be heart breaking when you just miss out on a blockbuster storm, because one little thing spoils the set-up at the last possible moment, but I will take my chances if it means we could get something extreme.

   

I really can't complain up here in the mid Hudson Valley, I have 11" already this season thanks to the Thanksgiving storm. Perhaps that has spoiled me and left me craving for more..It's a sickness lol.   Usually up here, we get a couple of 1-3 or 2-4  type deals in December, but this year has been pretty stark (so far) but there is still time for things to change, so that hasn't helped with my mood.. And i just hate rainstorms and 50F dews over Christmas... Like I said, I am being a bit of an emotional and irrational weenie tonight...

[Radders]

55F Dew points on the evening of Xmas eve on the 0Z GFS..

[Chaser25973]

18z gfs shows development into a classic pattern where a system moves into 50/50 with a cpf and also trailing front down thru the GOM (which extends back to the deep Pacific...Pineapple Connection with deep moisture trail). Low pressure wave develops on front in GOM and heads Northeast into the 50/50 position...pattern continues. Would be a sweet pattern for big chances thats why I have my eyes on the dec 27-Jan 5 period for something more widespread. Euro shows a similar pattern setting up though we get there completely differently. Should be a fun period coming up once we get these rainstorms out of the way.

 

And thus The Ralph Wiggum Storm hath been named.

[MJO812]

if you're going to contribute to arterial plaque at least eat something that tastes good

You must have bad taste if you think cannoli's don't taste good.

[Ralph Wiggum]

You must have bad taste if you think cannoli's don't taste good.

Leave the gun...take the cannolis:

 

http://youtu.be/yHzh0PvMWTI

[brooklynwx99]

You must have bad taste if you think cannoli's don't taste good.

Yeah there's nothing like a well-made cannoli. 

[NYCSNOWMAN2020]

Holy cannoli we need a good storm to pop up on maps. Maybe the JMA can sniff one out for us in January ..( I mean snow storm..not rain storm )

[MJO812]

Yeah there's nothing like a well-made cannoli. 

Agree. The chocolate ones are the best.

[REDMK6GLI]

If by january first we dont see atleast a decent setup in north america (-EPO/AO/NAO) and its not sufficient to combat the SE ridge ill be drastically losing hope for this winter. We ALL have to hope the -AO/EPO can do the dirty work again this year in a gradient pattern

[MJO812]

If by january first we dont see atleast a decent setup in north america (-EPO/AO/NAO) and its not sufficient to combat the SE ridge ill be drastically losing hope for this winter. We ALL have to hope the -AO/EPO can do the dirty work again this year in a gradient pattern

Hope this winter doesn't turn out like 2001-2002. That winter was supposed to be great.

[REDMK6GLI]

Hope this winter doesn't turn out like 2001-2002. That winter was supposed to be great.

Seeing the SE ridge on both the GFS and EURO doesnt make me comfortable. Im basically looking at it a big wildcard in what is suppose to be a great period for cold and snow that could literally turn a fantastic pattern into craptastic fast. We dont get the EPO/AO to cooperate its congrats NE/NNE

[swamplover56]

The board is sure quiet. Now seeing a lot of good posters in the other forums saying there is a good chance the cold will be transient. If we don't pull off something good between 12/30 and 1/10 we may be talking end of January. At that point you just hope for a big one to get us close to average

[MJO812]

Seeing the SE ridge on both the GFS and EURO doesnt make me comfortable. Im basically looking at it a big wildcard in what is suppose to be a great period for cold and snow that could literally turn a fantastic pattern into craptastic fast. We dont get the EPO/AO to cooperate its congrats NE/NNE

Maybe the EPO can save us again

[Guest Pamela]

Whatever became of the monthly and annual snowfall contest thread?

[SnoSki14]

Anytime the NAO is transitioning usually means storm. Bluewave posted how not all EPOs are created the same when he showed the Jan 2013 map compared to Jan 2014.

I asked why things aren't going to plan because they won't be if the pattern is transient and then reverts back to unfavorable. That remains to be seen but things are not what we thought they'd be a month ago.

[REDMK6GLI]

I will say this. If we get to january 15th with still NO snow for NYC ill be breaking out the punting unit. I wont be punting winter just yet BUT ill be thinking about.

Too early in the game right now but after the past few days it just doesnt look as promising IMO

[Chaser25973]

My wife's due date for our first born is Jan 7. Would be amazing if we had to get to the hospital in the middle of a blizzard!

[SnoSki14]

There's still a nice window for a snow event before any downside occurs from late December to early January.

[MJO812]

I will say this. If we get to january 15th with still NO snow for NYC ill be breaking out the punting unit. I wont be punting winter just yet BUT ill be thinking about.

Too early in the game right now but after the past few days it just doesnt look as promising IMO

Everything is going as planned

[MJO812]

There's still a nice window for a snow event before any downside occurs from late December to early January.

What dowside? Stop being really negative.No reason.