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Winter 2014-15 Banter Thread


Stormlover74

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What about air, water, food and good health?

 

Well obviously if we want to get into a discussion about the so called "hierarchy of human needs"...air would probably come first...water 2nd...food 3rd...but my point being that all the things you cite are essential contributing factors...really absolutely necessities if we want to extend our stay around these parts...given the state of affairs in the contemporary west...most people can obtain the first 3 in sufficient quantities to continue their existence...good health is essentially a result of good diet, avoiding toxic substances, avoiding dangerous occupations & situations in general...and probably somewhat tied into one's genetic predispositions...and robust health is the sine qua non upon which longevity depends. 

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The Mets in the NYC forum don't post much as a whole, some I think read but rarely post. I a hardly ever here from April to September as summer weather generally doesn't interest me, I sometimes don't log onto the board the entire summer

Can't blame you for not posting in the summer. Severe weather is the only interesting thing, and we rarely get that. Definitely do appreciate your contributions during the winter though!

 

The week prior to '96 I recall twc repeatedly showing a graphic ...it was either "southern slider" or "southern style" (I was 14 :/) ...harping how it was looking like it was only going to affect the southeast. Was the mrf/avn showing the southern solution and twc was going with that? Anyone remember which model lead the way with further north track? I'm guessing the euro. I just remember the projected accumulations increasing the day before like every 6 hours... That day was almost as exciting as the storm. It went from 6"+, to a foot, to 1-2 feet to up to 2 feet expected all in one day

Sent from my iPhone

One reason I love this board is because of stories like this. I was 6 when the famous bliz hit. I recall being in the storm to this day, but obviously I didn't know the meteorological aspect of it. Thanks for sharing!

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Saw today that the PGFS will become the new operational model mid-late January 2015.

 

Also seeing that NCEP is experiencing a major issue and is running off a backup server. For the time being, the HRRR is not running.

 

Noticed that the NAM is running slow. It's only out to hour 42 on SV and the GFS should be running soon.

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There's a solid chance we crack 60 F Xmas eve with the threat of storms. It's almost as if Old Man Winter himself hates the holidays and is trolling all of us.

1986 was also a very mild rainy Christmas eve/day. We didn't have ton of cold that winter but Jan-March was a pretty nice period especially SW of the city

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1986 was also a very mild rainy Christmas eve/day. We didn't have ton of cold that winter but Jan-March was a pretty nice period especially SW of the city

I'll happily trade a lot of cold for more snow. There's nothing pleasant about arctic cold and dry unless it's record challenging where it becomes more about the science.

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Most of the operational modeling develops the secondary low pressure system over the area and races it northward with H5 never closing off because the primary energy stays near the parent low in the lakes. Interestingly enough, the DGEX puts more emphasis on the secondary development and the result is an insane amount of rain.

 

f132.gif

 

f144.gif

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18z gfs shows development into a classic pattern where a system moves into 50/50 with a cpf and also trailing front down thru the GOM (which extends back to the deep Pacific...Pineapple Connection with deep moisture trail). Low pressure wave develops on front in GOM and heads Northeast into the 50/50 position...pattern continues. Would be a sweet pattern for big chances thats why I have my eyes on the dec 27-Jan 5 period for something more widespread. Euro shows a similar pattern setting up though we get there completely differently. Should be a fun period coming up once we get these rainstorms out of the way.

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