PB GFI Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Yes, the x-mas storm as a massive cutter will certainly help the -NAO, but it could just be a transient feature. ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/4panel.png Not to say this is correct or not, but it has really been hard the past few years to get a persistent -NAO. So it will certainly be interesting to see whether or not the x-mas storm can really trigger something there. Agree but I will take a neg EPO AO with an open ST wave train cutting under all that confluence. All that cross polar flow will allow arctic air to sink to the base of the trough. So our 2 m temps will b colder than what they will look like at 500 True without a neg NAO you miss the big bombs but Dec and Jan last yr did well ( although I think we block this time). Last time I saw a deep cut off like this around xmas was Dec 02. This one will turn over like that one did but 02 03 is a great analog yr. And that jan and Feb worked out well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 17, 2014 Author Share Posted December 17, 2014 Do we really need a separate thread for a possible storm over a week away? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Do we really need a separate thread for a possible storm over a week away? I doubt its a possible storm, there will be a storm affecting the region whether its rain or mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 LaGuardia Field & Newark appear to be neck & neck in the turtle race... Seasonal Snowfall 2014-15 Winter As of 6:00 PM December 17th, 2014 LaGuardia Airport: 1.7" Newark Airport: 1.7" Central Park: 1.2" Bridgeport: 0.9" Islip MacArthur Airport: 0.4" JFK Airport: 0.4" NWS Upton / BNL: 0.3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 i can't believe nyc hasn't seen more than 3" of snow on jan 5th http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/climate/almanacs/nycjan.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 i can't believe nyc hasn't seen more than 3" of snow on jan 5th http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/climate/almanacs/nycjan.htm Wow that is pretty surprising. Several of those days actually. 4.7" high on one of the last days of the month also seems very low. There are many records just waiting to be broken Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Wow that is pretty surprising. Several of those days actually. 4.7" high on one of the last days of the month also seems very low. There are many records just waiting to be broken If past history is any indicator, we may be waiting a while...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Wow that is pretty surprising. Several of those days actually. 4.7" high on one of the last days of the month also seems very low. There are many records just waiting to be brokenit probably has to do with a faster jet in january Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Wow that is pretty surprising. Several of those days actually. 4.7" high on one of the last days of the month also seems very low. There are many records just waiting to be broken Jan. 5th snowfalls... amount year............depth... 3.0" in 1883..........13" in 1948 2.4" in 1893 est....12" in 1877 2.0" in 1980..........10" in 2001 1.8" in 2001............9" in 1925 1.5" in 1985............8" in 1904 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Sigh another day another meltdown in the Dec disco thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Wow. .is all I can say. Despite the train wreck the euro shows for people who like snow ..I still think we get snow this winter ..40 plus. Doubt it but 2-3 storms yes. And that's all it takes to get 25-30 inch winter. (Let's hope was off run of Euro) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lindywx Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 one of the analogs I've seen being used for the upcoming winter(and yes it is still upcoming) is 1977-78. So seeing the Ohio Valley/Lakes bomb being advertised on the models immediately reminds me of what happened about 9 days later in 78. Can we get a 50/50 low and some ridging in Greenland out of the Lakes bomb? That could set us up nicely for some fun and games around here.. Of course we can get snow without it, but the 50/50 is so important in locking in HP in the sweet spot. we all know that's what we need to maintain an all snow event along the coast. The next couple of weeks will be interesting despite what the models are showing right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 wowWhere the hell do these people come from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 The woodwork. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 I noticed the weenies are getting unhinged now and I don't see why. The indices continue to look very favorable post Xmas. Why do they all assume the Euro is correct in the LR. The models will continue to flip until reality strikes. There's nothing that points to this winter being a disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 I noticed the weenies are getting unhinged now and I don't see why. The indices continue to look very favorable post Xmas. Why do they all assume the Euro is correct in the LR. The models will continue to flip until reality strikes. There's nothing that points to this winter being a disaster. euro long range has been erractic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 I noticed the weenies are getting unhinged now and I don't see why. The indices continue to look very favorable post Xmas. Why do they all assume the Euro is correct in the LR. The models will continue to flip until reality strikes. There's nothing that points to this winter being a disaster. Your best work yet. Except for the euro LR this is the only time it's showed a neg EPO AO. So it's going to be right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 at rutgers/new brunswick there were 8 winters in the 20th century with 50+ inches of snow. meanwhile, 3 of the last 5 years have had 50+ inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 at rutgers/new brunswick there were 8 winters in the 20th century with 50+ inches of snow. meanwhile, 3 of the last 5 years have had 50+ inches of snow. warmer planet = more moisture and more blocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 lol keep getting my posts deleted wen all i did was express some frustration with how this december is going and then not even getting told why? smh the mods on this forum are the reason it is how it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 18, 2014 Author Share Posted December 18, 2014 lol keep getting my posts deleted wen all i did was express some frustration with how this december is going and then not even getting told why? smh the mods on this forum are the reason it is how it is Keep it in here and you'll be fine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 lol keep getting my posts deleted wen all i did was express some frustration with how this december is going and then not even getting told why? smh the mods on this forum are the reason it is how it is Because they are trying to clean up the discussion threads. Post your frustrations in this banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 lol keep getting my posts deleted wen all i did was express some frustration with how this december is going and then not even getting told why? smh the mods on this forum are the reason it is how it is Actually no, it's IMBY posts and emotional posts that are the issue - They tend to just lead to flare-ups. I suspect that your posts fell into one of those two (or even both) catgeories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Actually no, it's IMBY posts and emotional posts that are the issue - They tend to just lead to flare-ups. I suspect that your posts fell into one of those two (or even both) catgeories. all i said was its frustrating that im probably gunna be going into january with under an inch of snow and a bunch of rainstorms...that is not emotional nor is it anywhere close to an IMBY post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 all i said was its frustrating that im probably gunna be going into january with under an inch of snow and a bunch of rainstorms...that is not emotional nor is it anywhere close to an IMBY post " im probably gunna be going into january with under an inch of snow and a bunch of rainstorms" That sounds pretty IMBY to be honest.. Not trying to give you a hard time.. Like others said, just post your thoughts like this in the banter thread and you'll be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 " im probably gunna be going into january with under an inch of snow and a bunch of rainstorms" That sounds pretty IMBY to be honest.. Not trying to give you a hard time.. Like others said, just post your thoughts like this in the banter thread and you'll be fine. no an annoying IMBY is when someone asks how much snow there getting...seriously stop u sound uneducated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 no an annoying IMBY is when someone asks how much snow there getting...seriously stop u sound uneducated lol ok. Whatever you say. Just trying to help you out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Because they are trying to clean up the discussion threads. Post your frustrations in this banter thread. all i said was its frustrating that im probably gunna be going into january with under an inch of snow and a bunch of rainstorms...that is not emotional nor is it anywhere close to an IMBY post See above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 "u sound uneducated" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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