MJO812 Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 ...and off they go! :cliff: Patiently waiting here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 ...and off they go! :cliff: Well not exactly off the cliff but these folks do need to vent. Many here haven't even seen a snow flake yet; meanwhile I do believe you've already had a few MECS's with 18" on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 0z GFS is really hideous throughout the whole run for the area It does show a couple of hours of light snow at the beginning. Be patient & pray if so inclined for a turnaround to cold and snowy later in the months and beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 It does show a couple of hours of light snow at the beginning. Be patient & pray if so inclined for a turnaround to cold and snowy later in the months and beyond. That's what I am doing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Warm weak coastal next weekend on the GFS,GGEM and now the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Mass-punting on the second day of the month FTL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 ANY CHANCE ,....(another typhoon) can help re-load our pattern?? I read somewhere yesterday that something was brewing etc etc...(Grasping here I know) ,,,BUT... regardless of typhoons etc...I hope by End Dec/Early Jan... FORGET snow amounts... I just would like "snow threat to track" ...(Is that too much to ask ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 ANY CHANCE ,....(another typhoon) can help re-load our pattern?? I read somewhere yesterday that something was brewing etc etc...(Grasping here I know) ,,,BUT... regardless of typhoons etc...I hope by End Dec/Early Jan... FORGET snow amounts... I just would like "snow threat to track" ...(Is that too much to ask ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Mass-punting on the second day of the month FTL Don't get it! A little snow & rain is in the forecast for today. NYZ072-022130- NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)- 433 AM EST TUE DEC 2 2014 .TODAY...CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW THIS MORNING... THEN RAIN...SNOW AND SLEET THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH THIS MORNING. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 90 PERCENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Man, some of you guys really need to think before you post especially in a thread that had such quality discussion as the one pinned in our forum. Totally bringing down the quality of the thread with posts like "all the cold is going into asia..december is in trouble". Cmon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 I guess ( In defense) of those of those who are throwing in the white flag (WAY to early) IMO,,,I rather see those posts here "IN THE BANTER" thread than in the main forum ,....if those such people don't have a venue to rant and vent...whole board in trouble (IMO)...BUT..do agree Earthlight..we all have to sit back and wait for things to evolve.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 I hate waiting for a good pattern. Hope it happens soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Man, some of you guys really need to think before you post especially in a thread that had such quality discussion as the one pinned in our forum. Totally bringing down the quality of the thread with posts like "all the cold is going into asia..december is in trouble". Cmon. Im taking the LR 7-10+ day forecasts with a grain of salt. example GFS around the time its forecasted to go into phase 7 it has a blowtorch for the entire CONUS? The runs just dont make sense. The EURO has a +PNA and atleast shows cold in the east and ridging in the west, more typical of the pattern and MJO. Many are making these calls on LR runs of models that have been far from stellar in the 7-10 day+ range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Im taking the LR 7-10+ day forecasts with a grain of salt. example GFS around the time its forecasted to go into phase 7 it has a blowtorch for the entire CONUS? The runs just dont make sense. The EURO has a +PNA and atleast shows cold in the east and ridging in the west, more typical of the pattern and MJO. Many are making these calls on LR runs of models that have been far from stellar in the 7-10 day+ range. It's not the MJO at play here. Stratospheric forecast strengthens over north pole through mid-December. This allows the big AK/GOA low to flood the CONUS with Pacific Air: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 It's not the MJO at play here. Stratospheric forecast strengthens over north pole through mid-December. This allows the big AK/GOA low to flood the CONUS with Pacific Air: Not likely to happen for an extended period of time . A SD PNA of 4 forces cold air ( normal at best ) into the pattern We have seen the models back off the idea of PAC air crashing through onto the WC . You just don`t roast with that look . Those heights are too high for renegade highs not to slip through the lakes . Snow is not in the offing but either is an all out torch . I will argue Dec 1- 15 finishes close to N . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Not likely to happen for an extended period of time . A SD PNA of 4 forces cold air ( normal at best ) into the pattern We have seen the models back off the idea of PAC air crashing through onto the WC . You just don`t roast with that look . Those heights are too high for renegade highs not to slip through the lakes . Snow is not in the offing but either is an all out torch . I will argue Dec 1- 15 finishes close to N . "Pacific air" doesn't mean we are just roasting. This is also not +PNA on the GEFS long range. The line charts are deceiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 "Pacific air" doesn't mean we are just roasting. This is also not +PNA on the GEFS long range. The line charts are deceiving. The GFS makes no sense . Takes the MJO into 8 and Re curves the typhoon and breaks the PNA down .( both argue for a trough in the east ) The Euro keeps it and really pumps the ridge and sends a trough into Europe. ( argues for a trough in the east . I don`t expect there to be a trough on the EC , ( But a series of shots sneaking through ) but I do think we are just N this week for sure where last week we were progged to roast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 "Pacific air" doesn't mean we are just roasting. This is also not +PNA on the GEFS long range. The line charts are deceiving. You are correct. Pacific air producing a +1 is just as bad as +5 here during an El Nino December with no solid Greenland Block. Much above normal NYC snowfall has been rare during El Nino Decembers in NYC since 1980. Only 2 out of 10 years had a sufficiently negative AO pattern for both great snowfall and below normal temperatures. Snowfall outcomes were generally similar if the temperature departure was closer to +1 or +5 for the month. The current snowfall average for NYC in December is 4.8" Without the strong Greenland blocking pattern, Pacific air dominates North America with a strong Aleutian Low raising the EPO. Departures calculated current 30 year average of 37.5: December 2009.......-1.6.....12.4" December 2006.......+6.1.... 0" December 2004.......+0.9.....3.0" December 2002.......-1.5.....11.0" December 1997.......+0.8....T December 1994.......+4.7....T december 1991.......+2.1....0.7" December 1987......+2.0....2.6" December 1986......+1.5....0.6" December 1982......+5.3....3.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 You are correct. Pacific air producing a +1 is just as bad as +5 here during an El Nino December with no solid Greenland Block. Much above normal NYC snowfall has been rare during El Nino Decembers in NYC since 1980. Only 2 out of 10 years had a sufficiently negative AO pattern for both great snowfall and below normal temperatures. Snowfall outcomes were generally similar if the temperature departure was closer to +1 or +5 for the month. The current snowfall average for NYC in December is 4.8" Without the strong Greenland blocking pattern, Pacific air dominates North America with a strong Aleutian Low raising the EPO. Departures calculated current 30 year average of 37.5: December 2009.......-1.6.....12.4" December 2006.......+6.1.... 0" December 2004.......+0.9.....3.0" December 2002.......-1.5.....11.0" December 1997.......+0.8....T December 1994.......+4.7....T december 1991.......+2.1....0.7" December 1987......+2.0....2.6" December 1986......+1.5....0.6" December 1982......+5.3....3.0" I am not so down on how this evolves as others are . Nothing here alarms me to the point of expecting much higher departures from normal over the next 2 weeks . I think once past mid month and we hold our own we have a chance to finish B for the month . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 GFS shows a nice high to the north but still rain for the majority of us for this weekend . SMH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 It looks like the pattern actually gets worse as we approach mid month. These next 8-9 days don't look all that bad compared to beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 GFS shows a nice high to the north but still rain for the majority of us for this weekend . SMH. It is not a pattern for snow on the coast . And prob not for 2 weeks . The discussions are the departures . Get snow out of your head . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 I am not so down on how this evolves as others are . Nothing here alarms me to the point of expecting much higher departures from normal over the next 2 weeks . I think once past mid month and we hold our own we have a chance to finish B for the month . You saw how much the models underestimated the warmth yesterday. This week NYC is on track for a +2 or higher for the 7 day mean. This is happening while the EPO is still negative. Once the EPO goes positive next week above average temperatures will continue to prevail or increase from this week. The -EPO this week saved us from even warmer conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 It looks like the pattern actually gets worse as we approach mid month. These next 8-9 days don't look all that bad compared to beyond. Thats your mistake, your taking LR forecasts from the EURO/GFS that have been far from reliable past 7-10 days too serious. Last week we were suppose to torch this week and it didnt happen. Look at the teleconnector forecasts as we head towards 11-15th, almost all look pretty good with the NAO going towards negative territory as of right now. after the 15th-20th time period we should start seeing more positive changes for winter weather. Recurving typhoon in the pacific will have big impacts as well if that comes to fruition and kick start the blocking over greenland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 It looks like the pattern actually gets worse as we approach mid month. These next 8-9 days don't look all that bad compared to beyond. This is b/c we lose the -EPO pulse after this week, which is why we're seeing the strong cold surface highs near the Canadian border right now. The peak of the warm period nationwide is liable to be the 7th-15th period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 This is what happens what happens when you have a pos PNA . The models keep backing off in the 6 to 10 with its all out torch . I have been saying this for the last 3 days . Buy the run on torch fest at your own peril . Highs will sneak through the lakes and keep the departures from spiking too far from N Yesterdays 12z 192 todays new 168 . Matches the Euro Control . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 2, 2014 Author Share Posted December 2, 2014 It is not a pattern for snow on the coast . And prob not for 2 weeks . The discussions are the departures . Get snow out of your head . I still think we'll be solidly in the +5 range by midmonth. Clouds will keep.our lows up most nights. NYC may not drop below freezing for the next 10 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Thats your mistake, your taking LR forecasts from the EURO/GFS that have been far from reliable past 7-10 days too serious. Last week we were suppose to torch this week and it didnt happen. Look at the teleconnector forecasts as we head towards 11-15th, almost all look pretty good with the NAO going towards negative territory as of right now. after the 15th-20th time period we should start seeing more positive changes for winter weather. Recurving typhoon in the pacific will have big impacts as well if that comes to fruition and kick start the blocking over greenland. If anything, the GFS was a little too cold for this week. The GEFS wasn't showing a torch for this week. Last week GEFS forecast for this week from 11-26: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 If anything, the GFS was a little too cold for this week. The GEFS wasn't showing a torch for this week. Last week GEFS forecast for this week from 11-26: gfs-ens_T2ma5d_eus_2.png I just looked the 30th 12z - look warm from the 8th on . Can you grab from your end, for some reason I cant attach it . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 I still think we'll be solidly in the +5 range by midmonth. Clouds will keep.our lows up most nights. NYC may not drop below freezing for the next 10 days I would think closer to + 2 .With 48 - 37 splits we could stay close . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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