Chaser25973 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Taking the Nam seriously at 84 hours FTL There we go... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 ABSOLUTE STUPIDITY . Why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 And that is what is way different this time vs. the 2008/2009 bloodbath; the curve. As of yesterdays close, we don't touch $60 until Dec 2015, and 10 years out on the curve closed at $68.11. The entire forward market has been crushed this time, not just the front. Have you seen the thread in the political roundtable forum.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Why? You have no idea where this pattern is going and I don`t have the time to explain it to you . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 You have no idea where this pattern is going and I don`t have the time to explain it to you . You honestly believe we'll get good snows from now until say 12/28. I know exactly where this pattern is going I've seen this happen before. Believe what you want to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 You honestly believe we'll get good snows from now until say 12/28. I know exactly where this pattern is going I've seen this happen before. Believe what you want to. "I've been enjoying this milder weather " 2 days of above normal and the first 15 days were still BN . I just can`t my man . Not sure what you are going to post about once past the 20th . WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR NORMAL .................................................................. TEMPERATURE (F) YESTERDAY MAXIMUM 48 357 PM 67 2008 43 5 40 MINIMUM 37 752 AM 6 1874 32 5 30 AVERAGE 43 38 5 35 There`s your torch , hope you didn`t get heat stroke . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 You honestly believe we'll get good snows from now until say 12/28. I know exactly where this pattern is going I've seen this happen before. Believe what you want to. Based on what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 "I've been enjoying this milder weather " 2 days of above normal and the first 15 days were still BN . I just can`t my man . Not sure what you are going to post about once past the 20th . He'll post about the mild look on the 384hr gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 He'll post about the mild look on the 384hr gfs. We had mild weather? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 http://www.nws.noaa.gov/view/prodsByState.php?state=NJ&prodtype=climate Only about 6 of the past 15 days have been below going off of Newark, 2 have been near normal, and 7 have been above normal. Granted we're not talking huge departures if you exclude the 1st but it hasn't been below normal. It's been slightly above and the max has crossed 50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 16, 2014 Author Share Posted December 16, 2014 Low 50s tomorrow.. Torch!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 http://www.nws.noaa.gov/view/prodsByState.php?state=NJ&prodtype=climate Only about 6 of the past 15 days have been below going off of Newark, 2 have been near normal, and 7 have been above normal. Granted we're not talking huge departures if you exclude the 1st but it hasn't been below normal. It's been slightly above and the max has crossed 50. KNYC is .3 below normal , that includes the Dec 1 splits of 65- 42 . that is not a torch ( that u $%^& swore was coming since late November ) , that is not mild in fact the last 15 days have been just below . You are entitled to our own opinion but not your own facts . Like I said once past the 20th your prob going to be bored . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Based on what? The teleconnections. They all are unfavorable until post Xmas with a +AO/NAO/EPO. Sure sometimes a system sneaks in but for the most part it's not gonna happen if things are like this. Past two coastals didn't work out or turned warmer as we got closer because indices did not support a snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 We had mild weather? The average temps at NYC have been exactly normal so far for December http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.cdus41.NYC.KOKX.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 I think the reader can go back and look at was written I said the 1- 15 would prob be below- the " warm up " would be 3 days max and then the pattern will change around the 20th . Think so far that`s worked out pretty well . You can read it all in Dec thread that started back in NOV among others ( cough ) . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 You honestly believe we'll get good snows from now until say 12/28. I know exactly where this pattern is going I've seen this happen before. Believe what you want to. Past results do not determine future outcomes. I have seen this pattern develop as much as you have, probably more. Late Mid-Late December snows in a weak El Nino in the NYC Metro area is not uncommon and should actually be expected. Indices do not have to be perfect or even favorable in any way shape or form but can be moving into that direction and this more times than not yields very solid results from a snow perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 The teleconnections. They all are unfavorable until post Xmas with a +AO/NAO/EPO. Sure sometimes a system sneaks in but for the most part it's not gonna happen if things are like this. Past two coastals didn't work out or turned warmer as we got closer because indices did not support a snow event. The change is going to come after Christmas. Why are you really negative of late? You were never like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 KNYC is .3 below normal , that includes the Dec 1 splits of 65- 42 . that is not a torch ( that u $%^& swore was coming since late November ) , that is not mild in fact the last 15 days have been just below . You are entitled to our own opinion but not your own facts . Like I said once past the 20th your prob going to be bored . Based on where you're located then it ranged from slightly above to slightly below with things warmer the further south you went. You're right it wasn't a torch; the models were wrong and that includes the forecast models but a few things didn't work out as some called either including a mid month pattern change. It will obviously take longer than that which was my call. I'm still going post Xmas on a true pattern change and I'll admit it profusely if I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Based on where you're located then it ranged from slightly above to slightly below with things warmer the further south you went. You're right it wasn't a torch; the models were wrong and that includes the forecast models but a few things didn't work out as some called either including a mid month pattern change. It will obviously take longer than that which was my call. I'm still going post Xmas on a true pattern change and I'll admit it profusely if I'm wrong. Then why not just opine with that . No one disputes that , the pattern changes once past the 20th and once to the 24th the EPO AO PNA all go NEG . You are going to force SWs under all that confluence and the trough will end up on the EC . That pattern will favor the coast . Starting out with - No snow for weeks and it`s mild kinda doesn`t tell the whole story . That`s all . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 The change is going to come after Christmas. Why are you really negative of late? You were never like this. Still going with a rocking Jan-Feb I'm not changing my outlook on those months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Then why not just opine with that . No one disputes that , the pattern changes once past the 20th and once to the 24th the EPO AO PNA all go NEG . You are going to force SWs under all that confluence and the trough will end up on the EC . That pattern will favor the coast . Starting out with - No snow for weeks and it`s mild kinda doesn`t tell the whole story . That`s all . I agree it did sound dumb the way it was phrased. At least you've been consistent with all of this which is good. Winter forecasting will never be an easy thing to do so I'll always give a Met or amateur forecaster credit for putting their thoughts out there and taking the heat when they're wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 stick a fork in the 12/20-21 event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 stick a fork in the 12/20-21 event. a fork and a steak knife. The GFS has been consistently showing a storm for xmas day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 stick a fork in the 12/20-21 event. I guess we never saw models waffle close to a storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 ggem ensemble mean isnt bad at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 a fork and a steak knife. The GFS has been consistently showing a storm for xmas day. and maybe that's the key, models in the end may have been too quick on the front runner only to see the real storm several days later....this happened in Dec 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Here are the facts. 11 weeks until spring. 2 weeks left in December 5 weeks in January 4 weeks in February Sure you may get a snow in March, but the sun angle melts it in day. It may be time to admit, December is a bust. January is forecasted to be a rockin month. Shake, rattle and snow baby! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Let's hope ..in Jan we begin to see real snow chances.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Let's hope ..in Jan we begin to see real snow chances.. so you are writing off the rest of December on December 16th ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Let's hope ..in Jan we begin to see real snow chances.. Need El Niño or La Niña plus polar vortex and crashing lows into Southern California. Shake, rattle and snow baby! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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