NEG NAO Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 ...with all this talk of a pattern change..( believe me..i trust what the big names say here..don s.,dt,earthlight,et al) but until i hear it on the local tv outlets..( lee goldberg/jeff smith being most respected ) my expectations are held in check. ...still 10+ days to go..so its not on their 'radar' yet..but hopefully we start hearing little blurbs of whats ahead.. Until I hear it from Dr. Bob Harris/Lloyd LindsayYoung/Alan Kasper my expectations are held in check Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 So boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 ...with all this talk of a pattern change..( believe me..i trust what the big names say here..don s.,dt,earthlight,et al) but until i hear it on the local tv outlets..( lee goldberg/jeff smith being most respected ) my expectations are held in check. ...still 10+ days to go..so its not on their 'radar' yet..but hopefully we start hearing little blurbs of whats ahead.. Lee Goldberg threw a hint last evening on the 6pm news. He said colder temps will take hold next thursday and beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Not liking how the AO and EPO still don't look to change even post Xmas especially the EPO. It seems like when things seem to be changing for the better one day the next day pushes it all back to square one. I hope this winter doesn't become one where the change is always 10+ days away but it never comes. It does feel that way a bit. No clue what's gonna happen moving forward honestly but the long awaited warm up is definitely coming. So perhaps things will finally change but it'll just take a really long time to do so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Not liking how the AO and EPO still don't look to change even post Xmas especially the EPO. It seems like when things seem to be changing for the better one day the next day pushes it all back to square one. I hope this winter doesn't become one where the change is always 10+ days away but it never comes. It does feel that way a bit. No clue what's gonna happen moving forward honestly but the long awaited warm up is definitely coming. So perhaps things will finally change but it'll just take a really long time to do so. MJO is geting into a favorable position - what we need in this active STJ pattern favorable for lows coming up the east coast is a blocking mechanism - we do have cold enough air visiting our region with arctic HP's to the north -but they have been able to escape - IF one of these storms can set up a 50/50 in time for the next storm coming along - timing is key here......also the nao forecast is still a positive NAO BUT going in the right direction towards neutral the next week and climatology is more in our favor the second half of december so things might be looking favorable for our first real snowfall of the season http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Why is snowski so negative?He was never like this before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Lee Goldberg threw a hint last evening on the 6pm news. He said colder temps will take hold next thursday and beyond. ...missed that one..thats good news..thanks nutley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 I'm calling it now Blizzard 12/26/14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Not liking how the AO and EPO still don't look to change even post Xmas especially the EPO. It seems like when things seem to be changing for the better one day the next day pushes it all back to square one. I hope this winter doesn't become one where the change is always 10+ days away but it never comes. It does feel that way a bit. No clue what's gonna happen moving forward honestly but the long awaited warm up is definitely coming. So perhaps things will finally change but it'll just take a really long time to do so. The first 12 days of December was supposed to be a blowtorch a few weeks ago..we are averaging -1 for the month so far..this thread is totally insane...Stop looking at LR maps after 7 days..they are not accurate! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 The first 12 days of December was supposed to be a blowtorch a few weeks ago..we are averaging -1 for the month so far..this thread is totally insane...Stop looking at LR maps after 7 days..they are not accurate! That's kind of my point that the warmth that was expected basically got delayed nearly 2 weeks but it is coming. Probably not 60s warmth as once shown but above to well above normal still. The same could apply to a pattern change toward cold where it does come eventually but it'll be delayed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 That's kind of my point that the warmth that was expected basically got delayed nearly 2 weeks but it is coming. Probably not 60s warmth as once shown but above to well above normal still. The same could apply to a pattern change toward cold where it does come eventually but it'll be delayed. Sit back and relax Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 That's kind of my point that the warmth that was expected basically got delayed nearly 2 weeks but it is coming. Probably not 60s warmth as once shown but above to well above normal still. The same could apply to a pattern change toward cold where it does come eventually but it'll be delayed. If you're going to jump then just do it already and leave the rest of us out of it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 That's kind of my point that the warmth that was expected basically got delayed nearly 2 weeks but it is coming. Probably not 60s warmth as once shown but above to well above normal still. The same could apply to a pattern change toward cold where it does come eventually but it'll be delayed. DAMN IT! You have been beating this like a dead horse man. Relax of step away from the boards until like february since you apparently need a perfect pattern to be happy. We have had formidable snowstorm occur with less than ideal upper air setups as well as antecedent air masses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 That's kind of my point that the warmth that was expected basically got delayed nearly 2 weeks but it is coming. Probably not 60s warmth as once shown but above to well above normal still. The same could apply to a pattern change toward cold where it does come eventually but it'll be delayed. There is no well above normal on its way. This is just sheer stupidity. You may see 2 days of 50 at the park. 4 days of normal and 4 days of below over the next 10 days. Your normal splits are 44 33 . Pls look at the euro surface temps for the next 10 days. There is no torch. A lack of snow does not equal a torch you just can't separate the 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 12, 2014 Author Share Posted December 12, 2014 DAMN IT! You have been beating this like a dead horse man. Relax of step away from the boards until like february since you apparently need a perfect pattern to be happy. We have had formidable snowstorm occur with less than ideal upper air setups as well as antecedent air masses. You're wasting your breath, he's not gonna stop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 DAMN IT! You have been beating this like a dead horse man. Relax of step away from the boards until like february since you apparently need a perfect pattern to be happy. We have had formidable snowstorm occur with less than ideal upper air setups as well as antecedent air masses.Maybe now that you know how annoying it is, you'll stop doing it with severe storms... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 12z Euro Mean still shows the miller b potential at 144 hours and shows a nice setup at the end of the run. 144 hours is a LONG ways out to speculate IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 I'm calling it now Blizzard 12/26/14 I am off from work that day (office closed) so it sounds good to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 12, 2014 Author Share Posted December 12, 2014 Maybe now that you know how annoying it is, you'll stop doing it with severe storms... Touche Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Maybe now that you know how annoying it is, you'll stop doing it with severe storms... Difference between me in what i do with severe storms and what he does right now is the pattern IS gonna change for the better. Where as me my severe weather lamenting is actually very true since my area has seen by far the least amount of severe weather in the tri state area. I got one STW during "severe season" and it was just thunder and rain. My only exciting time of year where i am is winter. Outside of it getting any other form of convection is sheer luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Difference between me in what i do with severe storms and what he does right now is the pattern IS gonna change for the better. Where as me my severe weather lamenting is actually very true since my area has seen by far the least amount of severe weather in the tri state area. I got one STW during "severe season" and it was just thunder and rain. My only exciting time of year where i am is winter. Outside of it getting any other form of convection is sheer luck I think all weather is exciting..if you just care about snow,your just a snowlover..if your into all types of weather and storms your a weather lover..and this is a great place to live..snow,coastal storms,sever weather,heatwaves and tropical systems..it has it all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 GFS is about to show a storm for the 20th. Looks nice before truncation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 12z GFS looks way better than the 6z run in regards to the 20th run. A lot more colder air. Went from a GLC to a coastal storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Maybe now that you know how annoying it is, you'll stop doing it with severe storms... Ouch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 12z GFS looks way better than the 6z run in regards to the 20th run. A lot more colder air. Went from a GLC to a coastal storm.Well everyone keeps saying not to use the gfs op for its low verification scores and I guess their right since it's gonna change completely every run.Apparently GEFS is a weenies gift though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Really long range GFS looks good - 18z GFS had a big snow around the 27th. Long way out but hope it's a real pattern change seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Really long range GFS looks good - 18z GFS had a big snow around the 27th. Long way out but hope it's a real pattern change seen. 0z GFS still has a storm for the 26-27th. Powerhouse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 0z GGEM for the 20-21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 we have plenty of good METS on this board along with Pro Forecasters - a Vendor MET with an attitude is another story..........technically those should only post in the vendor thread Yup we have some good mets but they don't always post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Euro looks delicious for next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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