IsentropicLift Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Why are any of you worrying about Dec snow totals on the 10th ? Exactly, might as well throw darts at a board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 November was cold and many of us saw our first accumulating snow....Dec so far has seen normal temps with a nice storm having just occurred... sure it hasn't snowed but today being the 10th, normally it wouldn't have...some are acting like its been sunshine and warmth the last few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Winters here are strange sometimes. You could get 70-90% of your average snow in one storm or you could get very little snow all winter. Sometimes there's a huge disconnect between the winter pattern and the results. For example 04/05 gave NYC 40" of snow but most occurred during a perfectly timed KU while most of that winter was mild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Winters here are strange sometimes. You could get 70-90% of your average snow in one storm or you could get very little snow all winter. Sometimes there's a huge disconnect between the winter pattern and the results. For example 04/05 gave NYC 40" of snow but most occurred during a perfectly timed KU while most of that winter was mild. This is why when we were making our snowfall predictions I went with very few overall events but above average snowfall. Quality over quantity in an El Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Winters here are strange sometimes. You could get 70-90% of your average snow in one storm or you could get very little snow all winter. Sometimes there's a huge disconnect between the winter pattern and the results. For example 04/05 gave NYC 40" of snow but most occurred during a perfectly timed KU while most of that winter was mild. 1982-83 0 0 0 0 0 D 3.0 J 1.9 F 21.5 M T A 0.8 0 0 27.2 And if you ask those of us who were around for that winter . That Feb Blizzard is all we remember from it . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 10, 2014 Author Share Posted December 10, 2014 1982-83 0 0 0 0 0 D 3.0 J 1.9 F 21.5 M T A 0.8 0 0 27.2 And if you ask those of us who were around for that winter . That Feb Blizzard is all we remember from it . Yep or an even more extreme example. The most boring winter ever 94-95. One snow event the entire winter that gave us 100% of our total snowfall. I don't think any other winter exists that gave us 0 snow in Dec, Jan and March. Correction Central Park has .2 in January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 And I know that some would say that a snowless December is a bad sign for the rest of the Winter, but the way I see it, no pattern is going to persist forever. So would you rather have things favorable now and less favorable during the heart of Winter? Or can we take what we can get now and when things eventually flip clean up later in the season? it is bad if you are looking for a winter with much above normal snowfall here in NYC- look at the records dating back to the 1800's http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/climate/records/monthseasonsnowfall.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 it is bad if you are looking for a winter with much above normal snowfall here in NYC- look at the records dating back to the 1800's http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/climate/records/monthseasonsnowfall.html Just looking from 2000 and shrinking the time frame I like the last 14 years . 8 above 2 Normal 4 Below . 71 ^ at or above . I will take those odds . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 it is bad if you are looking for a winter with much above normal snowfall here in NYC- look at the records dating back to the 1800's http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/climate/records/monthseasonsnowfall.html My prediction was based off of 3-4 high end events during the second half of Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 10, 2014 Author Share Posted December 10, 2014 The other thing you have to ask yourself is to get 50" it will probably take most of the winter being snowy or an extreme period like 2010-11. However we can get a nice 35-40" winter from one good 4-6 week period with one or two big storms like we saw in 2004-05. I'd be very happy with a 2nd half winter like that if the first half sucks. Certainly better than having a great December early January and then shutting off the rest of the winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Yea but then you have people crying sun angle after January. Most would prefer snow sooner rather than later even if unrealistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 My prediction was based off of 3-4 high end events during the second half of Winter. in other words you are looking for a winter comparable to 1977 - 78 but then again you predicted 12.7 inches of snow for this month in the contest.......almost 3 X normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 10, 2014 Author Share Posted December 10, 2014 Yea but then you have people crying sun angle after January. Most would prefer snow sooner rather than later even if unrealistic. People can cry all they want. You can't please everyone. Sun angle plays no part whatsoever until the very end of February and even then its usually not a big issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Some myths will never die whether the sun angle, warm days before, warm ground, or other winter myths. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Could the solar activity spike have affect our winter to an extent in which the 01/02 winter was affected. I remember many forecasts believes 01/02 would be a good winter only to end up one of the warmest and least snowiest in history because of high solar activity. I also read how it helps strengthen the stratospheric vortex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 GREAT discussion in the main pattern thread today. Very refreshing to read and a good example of how good posters (Mets and hobbyists alike) can add such a great deal to this board when the posts like "well if the pattern was changing, where is the snow?" are kept out of it. No one has all of the answers, but reading stuff like we have in there today can give you some of the tools to finding out WHY the pattern is at it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYY_2 Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 I'm sure some of our stat guys have the info, what was last Decembers KNYC snowfall for the month? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 I'm sure some of our stat guys have the info, what was last Decembers KNYC snowfall for the month? 8.6 20213- 2014 D 8.6 J 19.7 F 29.0 M 0.1 T 57.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 I'm sure some of our stat guys have the info, what was last Decembers KNYC snowfall for the month? 8.6" Here's a site : http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/climate/records/monthseasonsnowfall.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYY_2 Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 8.6 20213- 2014 D 8.6 J 19.7 F 29.0 M 0.1 T 57.4 8.6" Here's a site : http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/climate/records/monthseasonsnowfall.html Thank you both Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 So much for this so called torch. December will probably end up normal if not below in temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 in other words you are looking for a winter comparable to 1977 - 78 but then again you predicted 12.7 inches of snow for this month in the contest.......almost 3 X normal Yes I did, one good KU event during the second half of December. Hopefully we can get that NAO/AO flip that we've been patiently awaiting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 Yes I did, one good KU event during the second half of December. Hopefully we can get that NAO/AO flip that we've been patiently awaiting. KU events have only grown on trees since 1996 - there have only been 36 KU events ( 12 + inches ) in recorded history at NYC. 8 of them since 1996. Good luck with all the KU's you expect this year..........Common sense would tell one the frequency of such events should decrease in frequency soon............ http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/climate/records/footplussnow.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 Huge win by both the UKMET and EURO with it`s MJO amplitude and running it into the COD from 7 days ago . Just blew away the GFS . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 KU events have only grown on trees since 1996 - there have only been 36 KU events in recorded history at NYC. 8 of them since 1996. Good luck with all the KU's you expect this year..........Common sense would tell one the frequency of such events should decrease in frequency soon............ http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/climate/records/footplussnow.html We currently remain in an active cycle as noted by the numerous heavy precipitation events over the past decade or so. You can't just say things will have to shut off because we've had these events so often, you have to show and prove why they will stop. Also climate change is no joke and it could very well be part of the cycle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 Huge win by both the UKMET and EURO with it`s MJO amplitude and running it into the COD from 7 days ago . Just blew away the GFS . Not a surprise there IMO. COD isnt exactly terrible for us. I for one am glad to see the NAO tanking towards nuetral around christmas. Big step in the right direction and the EPO always dipping quite a bit around that time period as well paul. Those heights keeps on getting higher in canada as time goes on with the models, notably with the ECMWF/CANADIAN. The GFS seems very aggressive with getting greenland blocking well established ATM. Regardless i am not dissapointed one bit with the pattern we have from the 17th and on especially with the strong +PNA picking up the work load. gave me my first coating of snow for the season last night and this morning. Not bad for a "stale air mass" if i must say so myself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cjr231 Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 So much for this so called torch. December will probably end up normal if not below in temps. There was really only one person calling for a torch, but he just did so over and over and over again. Foolish to let that poster act the way he did to be honest. There was never any indications that this would be anything more than a transient warm up and pattern reload here in mid december. Almost anyone worth listening to reiterated it time and time again. i.e. Earthlight, PB GFI, HM, etc. Some people will forever continue to live and die by the 300+ hour OP runs I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 funny, the modeled pattern change is at 300 hours and nobody is doubting it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 KU events have only grown on trees since 1996 - there have only been 36 KU events ( 12 + inches ) in recorded history at NYC. 8 of them since 1996. Good luck with all the KU's you expect this year..........Common sense would tell one the frequency of such events should decrease in frequency soon............ http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/climate/records/footplussnow.html No offense, but I don't need a lesson on the frequency of KU events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 Every day this month (except one) has featured precipitation, it's annoying now. Some sunshine would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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