Rjay Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 The model thread is absolutely horrid right now! All of a sudden the NAM is gospel and NYC and LI are going to have a big rain storm. Come on people. Look at the meteorology not modelology. How did that do for us with the last storm? Watch the wind direction . It means absolutely everything. Prob 1-3" for you and I, then sleet then rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeRain Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Think they should drop those winter storm warnings for NYC I just got a recorded call from my Town of Oyster Bay supervisor saying that a WSW has been issued for most of the town. I would have thought that the NWS would have pulled the warning by now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I just got a recorded call from my Town of Oyster Bay supervisor saying that a WSW has been issued for most of the town. I would have thought that the NWS would have pulled the warning by now. you actually think they are going to pull it before the event begins after the cancelled freezing rain advisory fiasco ? They are going to wait till its obvious after the precip arrives a warning isn't needed then downgrade it to an advisory......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 you actually think they are going to pull it before the event begins after the cancelled freezing rain advisory fiasco ? They are going to wait till its obvious after the precip arrives a warning isn't needed then downgrade it to an advisory......... There could still be 4 inches of snow up on the N shore of Nassau county . Even if it gets to 35 for a few hours back here . ( I am in Laurel Hollow for this storm ) . The ground is frozen and the first few hours of rain could ice things up a bit . ( we just 2 Sundays ago what could happen with light rain over frozen ground ) even with temps 33 - 35 . Then whatever melts after that could be met by a flash freeze on the backside and it could be quick .There could be a 20 degree drop on the backside in 6 hours on Long Island , so all that slush will freeze on the roads . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Prob 1-3" for you and I, then sleet then rain. I agree. Though I think it's closer to 3 then 1 as it will come down heavy overnight before going to sleet around daybreak then freezing rain for an hour or 2 then rain. Back to snow with a coating in the afternoon. The snow pack in wantagh is pretty tuff as it has condensed. I think what falls with this storm is all that really melts and we come out of it with the same amount of snow but a wetter more robust pack with the flash freeze. I highly recommend removing any slush because whatever is left will turn to rock! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeRain Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 There could still be 4 inches of snow up on the N shore of Nassau county . Even if it gets to 35 for a few hours back here . ( I am in Laurel Hollow for this storm ) . The ground is frozen and the first few hours of rain could ice things up a bit . ( we just 2 Sundays ago what could happen with light rain over frozen ground ) even with temps 33 - 35 . Then whatever melts after that could be met by a flash freeze on the backside and it could be quick .There could be a 20 degree drop on the backside in 6 hours on Long Island , so all that slush will freeze on the roads . I'm thinking easterly winds at 10 to 15mph for about five hours will bring our temperature up to about 35 degrees here. Perhaps the snow on the front end will be heavy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 The model thread is absolutely horrid right now! All of a sudden the NAM is gospel and NYC and LI are going to have a big rain storm. Come on people. Look at the meteorology not modelology. How did that do for us with the last storm? Watch the wind direction . It means absolutely everything.I agree that the models shouldn't always be followed run to run. Trends are more important. However, the problems with the last storm actually from NOT following almost all of the models and following only a couple.....it goes both ways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 CYSD storm.......Clear Your Storm Drain. I actually shoveled it out after the last storm when the models were originally were showing the warmer track for this storm. The most memorable rain on a big snowpack for me was the late January 1996 event. All the storm drains were covered and the water in the streets came up over the curbs. It will be important to remove any leftover slop tomorrow afternoon since anything remaining will freeze like cement with the temps falling into the teens early Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Over ..used.. Term..but fits here .."Nowcast event " .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 How is NWS forecasting lows in NYC to be in the upper 20s tonight yet they have winds east to east-southeast? Temps are in mid 30s now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 At this point the only models we should be looking at are the short terms and the watch the radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 At this point the only models we should be looking at are the short terms and the watch the radar Only models I am going to be looking at the rest of this event are : http://www.modelmayhem.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Great 144 hr forecast from the upgraded GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Are kdox, kdix, and kokx radars all down? None are working on my Radarscope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Are kdox, kdix, and kokx radars all down? None are working on my Radarscope Working Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 I guess football talk in the main discussion thread is allowed but my comment asking why got deleted lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 I guess football talk in the main discussion thread is allowed but my comment asking why got deleted lol. Who cares. If you don't like it, don't read it. -Brian2849495939349393 approves this message- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Who cares. If you don't like it, don't read it. -Brian2849495939349393 approves this message- Lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Back to weather banter ..sucks seeing snow out your window. Knowing full well ..within a few hours ..you Will hear pings ..then ..rain ..I just don't want frz rain ..that's dangerous..(I'm over here in the Bronx ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Back to weather banter ..sucks seeing snow out your window. Knowing full well ..within a few hours ..you Will hear pings ..then ..rain ..I just don't want frz rain ..that's dangerous..(I'm over here in the Bronx ) Just enjoy it while it's falling. The wretched warm season is always right around the corner, anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 One thing I've noticed over years of (mostly) lurking here is that for some reason wanting freezing rain is a weather taboo. Tornadoes, no problem, 3 feet of snow, bring it on, but .05" of ice? Hey I'm not crazy enough to want that! Secondly, truth be told, I'd bet that a majority of the 'enthusiasts' here privately are disappointed when freezing rain turns to rain. C'mon everyone, just admit it. Yes, its dangerous, and yes you still prefer it over 'plain rain.' Projection on my part, perhaps a little, but that doesn't mean it isn't true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Speaking in general terms, people really need to remember that there are actual criterion for what constitutes "moderate" and "heavy" snow: < 1/2-mile visibility, and < 1/4-mile visibility, respectively. I'd wager that 7 out of 10 "heavy snow" reports from casual enthusiasts and the general public don't even classify as moderate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coh Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 One thing I've noticed over years of (mostly) lurking here is that for some reason wanting freezing rain is a weather taboo. Tornadoes, no problem, 3 feet of snow, bring it on, but .05" of ice? Hey I'm not crazy enough to want that! Secondly, truth be told, I'd bet that a majority of the 'enthusiasts' here privately are disappointed when freezing rain turns to rain. C'mon everyone, just admit it. Yes, its dangerous, and yes you still prefer it over 'plain rain.' Projection on my part, perhaps a little, but that doesn't mean it isn't true. Was anyone on this board around for the ice storm in January 1978? I developed a whole new respect for freezing rain after that one. It basically destroyed the power grid, I think we were without electricity (and thus heat, since we had no backup) for almost a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cjr231 Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Hopefully this storm will cease the "GFS is the new king" BS that was going on the last week. Euro nailed this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Hopefully this storm will cease the "GFS is the new king" BS that was going on the last week. Euro nailed this one. I think we'd save ourselves a lot of trouble if people stopped idolizing individual models, in general. That's not how you're supposed to use them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cjr231 Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 ^I certainly agree with that. It was just bothering me that people were suddenly downplaying anything the Euro was showing since it didnt match other guidance. I think its fair to say it does win more often than not. But obviously all guidance should be taken into consideration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 u But obviously all guidance should be taken into consideration. And ironically, that's what got Upton into trouble with the blizzard. They relied too heavily on the Euro and ignored what other models were saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Guys i need help. Someone kept coming in here after the blizzard bust saying we needed to get knocked down a peg. Well i think the peg fell out of my pocket into the snow and its completely buried by snow. Anyone have any to spare? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 i keep cracking up at this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Well, this one is over before it even started, so might as well . . . Prob 1-3" for you and I, then sleet then rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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