Sickman Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Starting to get a ton of those "were's the snow?" texts. Sorry, I've got it all here. My bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 DT KILLING EM Wxrisk.com 3 hrs · FOLKS we have ANOTHER massive WEATHER CHANNEL SCREW UP... ..TWC is calling for 8-12" in NYC and all of their on-camera Mets are all saying 8-12' TOTAL for the event in NYC. Yet NWS is calling for calling for 24-36". This is just shattering incompetence on behalf of TWC's part. If those idiots want to hire some moron like Al Roker or Sam Champion to do with their weather that's one thing. But when you are talking about 2 feet of snow or more in b...lizzard conditions I don't think it's asking too much for TWC to carry actual forecast. Remember most people know who watch TWC are NOT weather savvy at all. It becomes a real problem with respect to public confidence and the public's ability to figure out what is actually happening.... when on the one hand the head of NWS is on all the news and cable news stations .... talking about life threatening blizzard conditions ....and on the side we have a TWC on camera meteorologist souless flunkie that seems not to care at all about watches and warnings. They simply spout off whenever the latest piece of **** the GFS or RPM Model is producing . I know exactly where TWC is getting their 8-12" storm total for NYC. As I stated in another post the Monday midday GFS model came out and it has only 6 inches of snow and New York City... and ONLY 8-14" in CT. It's obvious what's going on here. They simply look that whenever the GFS model is showing because it's more important to TWC to produce weather stories about weather and truckers or weather and Pets. Suppose is was a hurricane? And TWC decided for some reason (that had nothing to do with actual science)... to NOT carry hurricane watches and warnings? Would you be perfectly OK with TWC telling people the winds are only going be 50 mph .. not 100... and the coastal flooding is not going to be significant? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ace Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 hard to say if nam is busting or storm is just going slower than progged. Judging by the radar over sne id say its slower but maybe im just wishcasting Forkyfork has already posted that the storm is slower than what models have progged in the discussion thread I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Sorry, I've got it all here. My bad. Congratulations! (No...I'm not jumping yet) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Congratulations (No...I'm not jumping yet) U don't like the look of current radar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 U don't like the look of current radar? Most of the things I say in here shouldn't be taken to heart, but the radar looks halfway decent for now. The precip shield is moving at a rather sluggish pace, slower than I like. But that's just me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I'm putting this in banter because it's rather negative....I am still really puzzled by this whole thing. Some of the short term modeling seems to be fairly accurate with the banding. I haven't seen many questions answered regarding this. I understand tossing models if there is another one that seems to be fitting the bigger picture of what is going on.....however, these models are running repeatedly hour after hour regenerating newer versions of their depiction of what the radar will look. Why must all of this updated data be tossed ? (Especially when it matches up fairly well currently). I believe this is going to be an event that we'll remember by the fact that it was "almost there".....the bands pushing into SNE seem to be approaching with intent to slam them. The NAM had bands moving into our area around this same time starting to hammer us. Now the doubts can surely be proven wrong and I hope they are, but does anyone know the reasoning as to why all of the models including the short term ones are being disregarded? The way I see it, the euro has trended east with the precip, and the NAM did "a NAM run" and destroyed our area with snow. In any other case, the NAM doing that would be taken as it doing what it does. If reversed and all models except the NAM showed a big hit, I'm sure it would be considered consensus and the NAM tossed without a second thought. As I've been saying, I don't see this panning out for us so my question is : what gives ? Why is all of the other guidance tossed (even the brand new stuff) as if every other model suddenly went sour ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Man I feel the panic all the way down here! I'd be doing the same thing hopefully you guys get your foot or 2 and enjoy it!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 lol NAM. mass weenie suicides incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I am watching TWC on the internet, just for fun. Where is Jim Cantore?? I haven't seen him report from Boston yet. They should have sent him to NYC for good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I'm putting this in banter because it's rather negative....I am still really puzzled by this whole thing. Some of the short term modeling seems to be fairly accurate with the banding. I haven't seen many questions answered regarding this. I understand tossing models if there is another one that seems to be fitting the bigger picture of what is going on.....however, these models are running repeatedly hour after hour regenerating newer versions of their depiction of what the radar will look. Why must all of this updated data be tossed ? (Especially when it matches up fairly well currently). I believe this is going to be an event that we'll remember by the fact that it was "almost there".....the bands pushing into SNE seem to be approaching with intent to slam them. The NAM had bands moving into our area around this same time starting to hammer us. Now the doubts can surely be proven wrong and I hope they are, but does anyone know the reasoning as to why all of the models including the short term ones are being disregarded? The way I see it, the euro has trended east with the precip, and the NAM did "a NAM run" and destroyed our area with snow. In any other case, the NAM doing that would be taken as it doing what it does. If reversed and all models except the NAM showed a big hit, I'm sure it would be considered consensus and the NAM tossed without a second thought. As I've been saying, I don't see this panning out for us so my question is : what gives ? Why is all of the other guidance tossed (even the brand new stuff) as if every other model suddenly went sour ? I'm putting this in banter because it's rather negative....I am still really puzzled by this whole thing. Some of the short term modeling seems to be fairly accurate with the banding. I haven't seen many questions answered regarding this. I understand tossing models if there is another one that seems to be fitting the bigger picture of what is going on.....however, these models are running repeatedly hour after hour regenerating newer versions of their depiction of what the radar will look. Why must all of this updated data be tossed ? (Especially when it matches up fairly well currently). I believe this is going to be an event that we'll remember by the fact that it was "almost there".....the bands pushing into SNE seem to be approaching with intent to slam them. The NAM had bands moving into our area around this same time starting to hammer us. Now the doubts can surely be proven wrong and I hope they are, but does anyone know the reasoning as to why all of the models including the short term ones are being disregarded? The way I see it, the euro has trended east with the precip, and the NAM did "a NAM run" and destroyed our area with snow. In any other case, the NAM doing that would be taken as it doing what it does. If reversed and all models except the NAM showed a big hit, I'm sure it would be considered consensus and the NAM tossed without a second thought. As I've been saying, I don't see this panning out for us so my question is : what gives ? Why is all of the other guidance tossed (even the brand new stuff) as if every other model suddenly went sour ? I am with you. I don't post much these days, as winter has been quiet, and I don't have a good grasp of meteorology, but I have been through many busts, Feb 89, March 2001 and feb 6 2010 all come to mind. When you see precip hitting a brick wall, as it did on 2/6/10, that is a sign that things will not go well if you want snow in your area. I am seeing a brick wall, and I am seeing mets hold onto forecasts when the general public and a lot of the media are already calling back totals for large parts of the area. In my experience, when a storm of this magnitude has you in its crosshairs, you would be seeing a lot more evidence of it by now, and guidance would be indicating it. I won't be surprised in the least if what we have on the ground in Woodbridge is it for us. I've seen it before. Call me ignorant, and I admit that I am, but this dog ain't gonna hunt IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Ian getting called out by Cantore lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Don't read too much into this...but I think today may be the final time the NAM is ever mentioned in polite company again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Ian getting called out by Cantore lol Can you elucidate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Melt downs over/under 11pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I am with you. I don't post much these days, as winter has been quiet, and I don't have a good grasp of meteorology, but I have been through many busts, Feb 89, March 2001 and feb 6 2010 all come to mind. When you see precip hitting a brick wall, as it did on 2/6/10, that is a sign that things will not go well if you want snow in your area. I am seeing a brick wall, and I am seeing mets hold onto forecasts when the general public and a lot of the media are already calling back totals for large parts of the area. In my experience, when a storm of this magnitude has you in its crosshairs, you would be seeing a lot more evidence of it by now, and guidance would be indicating it. I won't be surprised in the least if what we have on the ground in Woodbridge is it for us. I've seen it before. Call me ignorant, and I admit that I am, but this dog ain't gonna hunt IMO.That is exactly what I'm thinking.....not even just that it's hitting a brick wall on radar, but BEFORE this happened, we had the RGEM a which is usually a great model, the HRRR (which is a great short term model), and a bunch of other models, some well respected and some not so much.....just because the big picture screams storm and one of the more lousy models (the NAM) shows it just as the best model (EURO) starts to trend away from a big hit for our area, does not mean that it is a big storm for US. The ingredients are all on the table without a single doubt, but not for us. All in all, after seeing post after post of how this model and that model, etc etc are not picking up this or that, etc....I'd just like to know "why". Why did every model (some that are usually great) suddenly lose the ability to forecast a storm within 24 hours or less? I feel as if the writing was on the wall but it was covered up. Personally, though I don't know even a fraction of what many people on here know.....I did express all my doubts with this system right from the beginning. I usually do not so strongly have an opinion such as this, but what unfolded this time was unsettling as it became clear that this was most likely going to be a miss. As it got closer (today), my doubts were met with criticism because "it's all coming together perfectly", etc.....-sigh- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Don't read too much into this...but I think today may be the final time the NAM is ever mentioned in polite company again... Don't read too much into this...but I think today may be the final time the NAM is ever mentioned in polite company again... Don't read too much into this...but I think today may be the final time the NAM is ever mentioned in polite company again... I have enjoyed your rapier wit, which has kept me reading these boards through this boring winter. This storm I think is going to be remembered as a real kick in the butt, esp if nothing else develops in the next few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Melt downs over/under 11pm Those 24 to 36 over Jersey looking a little high... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I have enjoyed your rapier wit, which has kept me reading these boards through this boring winter. This storm I think is going to be remembered as a real kick in the butt, esp if nothing else develops in the next few weeks. Thank you weatherproof; thank you very much! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 That is exactly what I'm thinking.....not even just that it's hitting a brick wall on radar, but BEFORE this happened, we had the RGEM a which is usually a great model, the HRRR (which is a great short term model), and a bunch of other models, some well respected and some not so much.....just because the big picture screams storm and one of the more lousy models (the NAM) shows it just as the best model (EURO) starts to trend away from a big hit for our area, does not mean that it is a big storm for US. The ingredients are all on the table without a single doubt, but not for us. All in all, after seeing post after post of how this model and that model, etc etc are not picking up this or that, etc....I'd just like to know "why". Why did every model (some that are usually great) suddenly lose the ability to forecast a storm within 24 hours or less? I feel as if the writing was on the wall but it was covered up That is exactly what I'm thinking.....not even just that it's hitting a brick wall on radar, but BEFORE this happened, we had the RGEM a which is usually a great model, the HRRR (which is a great short term model), and a bunch of other models, some well respected and some not so much.....just because the big picture screams storm and one of the more lousy models (the NAM) shows it just as the best model (EURO) starts to trend away from a big hit for our area, does not mean that it is a big storm for US. The ingredients are all on the table without a single doubt, but not for us. All in all, after seeing post after post of how this model and that model, etc etc are not picking up this or that, etc....I'd just like to know "why". Why did every model (some that are usually great) suddenly lose the ability to forecast a storm within 24 hours or less? I feel as if the writing was on the wall but it was covered up Well, sometimes if it quacks like a duck... and this storm has been quacking like a miss for us for awhile now. Still, Steve D and and DT are hanging on, and so was NWS. But I think they will shortly cave. One indication is that Steve D has gone quiet on his twitter posts. Why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Melt downs over/under 11pm Eleventy billion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Eleventy billion Disappointment, yes. Meltdown, no. At 52, I don't have meltdowns over a blown forecast. It means I won't endanger myself clearing snow and I can use the day off to take care of my ailing mother a bit. Maybe spend some time with my son, who is finishing his senior year and going to Rutgers in the fall. And listening to my 7th grade daughter chatting on the phone with her friends all day. Her laughter keeps me going; she will be making huge fun of me because the storm might be an "epic fail" in her jargon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Well, sometimes if it quacks like a duck... and this storm has been quacking like a miss for us for awhile now. Still, Steve D and and DT are hanging on, and so was NWS. But I think they will shortly cave. One indication is that Steve D has gone quiet on his twitter posts. Why? I will say this for DT...if he is wrong...he never hides it and never makes alibis...its weather...a human can't control it...and a computer cannot perfectly forecast it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemost Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 00z NAM is way east of its 18z run. Thats a pretty good kick in the groin. Well, there is always beer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I'm heading out for a while. Best of luck to everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Ian getting called out by Cantore lol I like Ian, I consider him a friend, he's been beating the drum for a while though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I will say this for DT...if he is wrong...he never hides it and never makes alibis...its weather...a human can't control it...and a computer cannot perfectly forecast it. Points well taken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason215 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Guys what about the nowcast posts from LC saying it's a lock for NYC and LI and Forky said it's slower than progged indicative of a quicker capture. Not to mention Roger Smith threw out numbers of 20-40. Perhaps I missed a few paged of posts. But if I was already observed that it's further west and stalling sooner, how can we miss? Knowledgable posters please advise. Thanks, -Jason PS: where is Mike Hobbyist? We need to counteract the negative nervous nellies, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Is it just me, or are there cancel posts before every storm? EVERY. DAMN. TIME. Everyone just needs to be patient and let the storm play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Guys what about the nowcast posts from LC saying it's a lock for NYC and LI and Forky said it's slower than progged indicative of a quicker capture. Not to mention Roger Smith threw out numbers of 20-40. Perhaps I missed a few paged of posts. But if I was already observed that it's further west and stalling sooner, how can we miss? Knowledgable posters please advise. Thanks, -Jason PS: where is Mike Hobbyist? We need to counteract the negative nervous nellies, lol Guys what about the nowcast posts from LC saying it's a lock for NYC and LI and Forky said it's slower than progged indicative of a quicker capture. Not to mention Roger Smith threw out numbers of 20-40. Perhaps I missed a few paged of posts. But if I was already observed that it's further west and stalling sooner, how can we miss? Knowledgable posters please advise. Thanks, -Jason PS: where is Mike Hobbyist? We need to counteract the negative nervous nellies, lol Things may still be looking good for your area. Most of LI seems to be in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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