Stormlover74 Posted January 26, 2015 Author Share Posted January 26, 2015 both Every storm busts on both ends for somebody. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 26, 2015 Author Share Posted January 26, 2015 lol..after gfs ..no more model watching.. IMO ..nowcast.. Time .. The GFS won't improve. If it hasn't now it's not going to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I'm getting tired of all the NYC haters in the Mid-Atlantic section. They have nothing on Damage in Tolland in the NE thread. You can tell he's getting horrified about being stuck in subsidence all day tomorrow while the two cities get dumped on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 </sarcasm> Don't worry Now that the NAM shows a HECS it's a good model again. </sarcasm> I actually don't buy it. I'm all on the Euro for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 The GFS won't improve. If it hasn't now it's not going to. It's depicts an entirely different evolution that's more progressive so it shouldn't change much at all. This is very much Feb 2013 all the way regarding the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I actually don't buy it. I'm all on the Euro for this. The Euro is already WRONG . It has .01 on to Long Island and the 5 boroughs by 7pm , there are 3 inch amounts everywhere already . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 The Euro is already WRONG . It has .01 on to Long Island and the 5 boroughs by 7pm , there are 3 inch amounts everywhere already . yea but thats completely unrelated to how the coastal is going to develop over the next 24 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cjr231 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 yea but thats completely unrelated to how the coastal is going to develop over the next 24 hours But the NAM did show the snow Long Island and NYC proper are currently getting. No other model really did to this extent. Not saying its right but its a small battle won for it in the overall war. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 They have nothing on Damage in Tolland in the NE thread. You can tell he's getting horrified about being stuck in subsidence all day tomorrow while the two cities get dumped on. At 1000' (or whatever he says he's at)...probably would need to put a ceiling over his yard to avoid 2 feet at least... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 HI RES NAM 2- 2.5 for most 2.5 - 3 From NCNJ runs N just W of EWR through NYC the 5 boroughs into Nassau County and western CT It is 3 plus on the south shore of Nassau County into Queens and Brooklyn and it shows up in Westchester . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 yea but thats completely unrelated to how the coastal is going to develop over the next 24 hours The NAM initialized better and is stronger and matches the surface . Maue just wrote a piece on it . The NAM and the Euro blow the storm up and tug it back , the Euro is a little further N . The .01 that the Euro spits out by 7pm will already be 6 by then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 The Euro is already WRONG . It has .01 on to Long Island and the 5 boroughs by 7pm , there are 3 inch amounts everywhere already . If the NAM verifies PB, I'll never say anything bad about it again. The main show was always starting later this evening into tomorrow morning. Should be exciting. I like the look on the WV/IR/radar so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 The 12z euro was a good run that may have under done the qpf. The nam was very similar in placement and may have overdone the qpf. If you take the middle of the two you have the nws forecast for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Was does the RAP see that I don't see...even at 17z...is it some sort of rhapsody? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I can't believe Upton and Mt. Holly hasn't backed down. They must really be confident in this happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 18z nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 pretty epic event unfolding for long island. congrats from the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I just made a bet with someone, you guys better not let me down! Break that record! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 There's so much on the line from the forecasting agencies. I can't believe they're essentially going with the Nam all the way through this is nuts. What if they're wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I ran into this guy at the market today and he send his regards to everyone here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stampede331 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Seriously, what is going on? Weather Channel says 8-12, the METS on this board, 20-30. How can there be this big of a discrepancy. Big fan of snow. Big fan of skiing. Not a huge fan of science not coming into agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minerva Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Can I ask an amateur question? Is this the type of storm setup where we will eventually see a comma head forming? Or is that a different type of storm? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Congrats from down south. Y'all enjoy it. Amazing storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minerva Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Congrats from down south. Y'all enjoy it. Amazing storm! Thank you very much! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stampede331 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Seriously, I would really appreciate if someone in the know could explain how a storm that the weather channel and news agencies have discredited to a 5-8 inch storm is still being touted as a 30 inch monster. Please, not saying it will do nothing, but how do you support this??? I know this is only supposed to be on a banter thread, and I would never put it on the model board, but I am genuinely curious how the reputation of something like the NOAA, which has a winter weather warning: blizzard warning, would hedge its bets on one model that METS famously discredit as being absurd...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
christhesnowman Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Seriously, I would really appreciate if someone in the know could explain how a storm that the weather channel and news agencies have discredited to a 5-8 inch storm is still being touted as a 30 inch monster. Please, not saying it will do nothing, but how do you support this??? I know this is only supposed to be on a banter thread, and I would never put it on the model board, but I am genuinely curious how the reputation of something like the NOAA, which has a winter weather warning: blizzard warning, would hedge its bets on one model that METS famously discredit as being absurd...... Simple it's not Just the NaM. The euro been showing Tis track for days. Number 2 the low is about 75 miles further northwest at this point then the models depicted. Combo of models and now casting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Congrats from down south. Y'all enjoy it. Amazing storm! Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Starting to get a ton of those "were's the snow?" texts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 From Ryan Maue: Ryan Maue @RyanMaue · 2h 2 hours ago .@PCKnappenberger @jaysforecast easy to make case that global warming weakened this blizzard significantly due to warmer SSTs Forget the climate change issue, which is irrelevant to the role SSTs play, but the literature argues that greater temperature gradients, particularly between cold land and warm waters enhances cyclogenesis. One example: http://www.met.rdg.ac.uk/~swr01tjw/pubs/cdsstres.pdf In short, I'm not sure what he was trying to argue. If the literature is accurate, the very warm SSTAs from the Mid-Atlantic and northward will contribute to the explosive intensification of the blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 hard to say if nam is busting or storm is just going slower than progged. Judging by the radar over sne id say its slower but maybe im just wishcasting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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