weatherweather Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Im getting the feeling some of you are attempting reverse psychology on a computer model..... yea what a shame though...the euros credability is absolutely tossed at this point...it has shown so many extreme solutions far out that have dissappeared and had a mecs/hecs for us inside 100 hours for saturday and a hecs inside 48 hours this time...awful awful model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ababa Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Writing is on the wall -- nice snowstorm but not historic. I was really hoping the UKIE would hold serve and it sounds like it slashed QPF in half. Nemo was nice because it looked like we wouldn't get much and ended up with 14". I think most were OK the CT got destroyed. Psychologically this is a huge loss for 2 reasons if we don't get the widespread 20-30". 1) Euro caught on first and had 3 runs in a row of 24-30"+ into NYC Metro in the 48 hrs prior to the start of the flakes falling. This would be a major fail for that model. 2) NWS hoists blizzard warnings and forecasts the highest amounts likely ever in the NYC Metro area 24 hrs before a storm. If they don't come close to verifying that is gonna really hurt their credibility. I feel like people were not as prepared for Sandy as they should have been due to the Irene hypefest/fail 1 year prior. Hope that the Euro/NWS prevail but it isn't looking good based on trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Im getting the feeling some of you are attempting reverse psychology on a computer model..... LOL I like that one.....if only it was possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Writing is on the wall -- nice snowstorm but not historic. I was really hoping the UKIE would hold serve and it sounds like it slashed QPF in half. Nemo was nice because it looked like we wouldn't get much and ended up with 14". I think most were OK the CT got destroyed. Psychologically this is a huge loss for 2 reasons if we don't get the widespread 20-30". 1) Euro caught on first and had 3 runs in a row of 24-30"+ into NYC Metro in the 48 hrs prior to the start of the flakes falling. This would be a major fail for that model. 2) NWS hoists blizzard warnings and forecasts the highest amounts likely ever in the NYC Metro area 24 hrs before a storm. If they don't come close to verifying that is gonna really hurt their credibility. I feel like people were not as prepared for Sandy as they should have been due to the Irene hypefest/fail 1 year prior. Hope that the Euro/NWS prevail but it isn't looking good based on trends. Very good points, especially in regards to the credibility. They do a great job, however, 12-20" could have been forecasted and people's jaws would drop, and make the necessary preparations. Putting such a huge area in the 24-36" is really just ludicrous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I just wish the NWS hadn't jumped the gun. I didn't see those totals as possible given the fact that the models didn't agree, really at all, with the Euro. But I thought, maybe the NWS saw something we didn't and I kind of bought into it. And people have been talking about this. If/when they wake up and find the snow totals have been slashed to 6-10, it ain't gonna be pretty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Im getting the feeling some of you are attempting reverse psychology on a computer model..... I don't see what the problem with that is . . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I just wish the NWS hadn't jumped the gun. I didn't see those totals as possible given the fact that the models didn't agree, really at all, with the Euro. But I thought, maybe the NWS saw something we didn't and I kind of bought into it. And people have been talking about this. If/when they wake up and find the snow totals have been slashed to 6-10, it ain't gonna be pretty....I agree..TV mets will try and save face.. Try and say ...well still major impact ..event ..etc etc blah blah blah... NWS should issue apology to all lol...made the mayor look like a jack ass lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 ...I agree..TV mets will try and save face.. Try and say ...well still major impact ..event ..etc etc blah blah blah... NWS should issue apology to all lol...made the mayor look like a jack ass lol.. So many jokes, so little time . . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 i just find it ludicrous that after 3 runs of JP nyc and giving this whole sub forum like 18+ 48 hours out...the euro is just gunna fold like a deck of cards almost approaching unbelievable status in my mind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Simmer down Nygmen. Let's wait and see what happens, yeah? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Simmer down Nygmen. Let's wait and see what happens, yeah? lol yea im popping off a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 No point in being bitter . lets see what euro says Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 The other problem is the confidence with which predictions were made and inconvenient model runs were tossed. Notice, many mets are silent as they await the Euro . . . wondering if they have something upon which to hang their hats or if they need to prepare to eat some crow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 DT has officially folded. Game over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ababa Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 DT has officially folded. Game over. Huge -- and has solid reasoning behind the fold (50/50 low much weaker than expected). I've made it this far so I'm gonna stay up for the Euro but looks like we can say bye bye historic storm for NYC proper. As almost always with Miller Bs, congrats SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 In absolute terms I can live with a SECS but man what a kick in the groin if the latest models come to fruition. Edit: Moved this post to banter from the main storm thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 someday we will be telling our grandkids of the great bust of 1/27/15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 whew, weenie suicide watch on hold for another 12 hours at least. i cant take this ****! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Damn, I had my violin all tuned and the GIFs loaded up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I wish I could have a drink with all of you with what the Euro just showed. KU!! My weenie heart was definitely on the line, these models are the definition of unstable mental health Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Who wants a shot? Im buying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 WHAT IS GOING ON HERE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Damn. I can't remember the least time i was so stressed out over a storm less than 24 hours away. But hey this is what makes this hobby so much fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 is it wrong that i cried a bit when i saw the euro qpfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cjr231 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I hope Snoski didn't pull the trigger before the EURO... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 My head hurts. It's times like this when I look forward to the more tranquil summer season. Much less drama. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Damn. I can't remember the least time i was so stressed out over a storm less than 24 hours away. But hey this is what makes this hobby so much fun. Fun? Da hell is wrong with you? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Fun? Da hell is wrong with you? Lol Tracking snow is the #1 reason people are on this weather board right now, it is the mecca of the weather world Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I hope Snoski didn't pull the trigger before the EURO... This is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Damn. I can't remember the least time i was so stressed out over a storm less than 24 hours away. But hey this is what makes this hobby so much fun. Please move on to skydiving or some other extreme sport because you obviously have a stronger threshold of stress. After this I'm gonna need some therapy. If that makes me a weenie so be it. Gonna drink a few beers now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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