Stormlover74 Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 Since today officially starts meteorological winter lets talk about our fears/worries/fantasy snow storms in here and keep the main threads decluttered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 1, 2014 Author Share Posted December 1, 2014 NEG NAO, on 01 Dec 2014 - 10:07 AM, said: you know what ? I think in order for this community be be a friendlier and more productive place to visit - since this post seems to be ruffling some feathers around here lets start debating his outlook more professionally and not just tell him to back away from the computer and that other nonsense - tell him why he is right or wrong without the personal attacks - just my opinion.. Its not about right and wrong its the overall negativity in the majority of his posts. Sure maybe he'll be right and we'll torch all winter and see no snow like 11-12 but constantly worrying about it isn't going to make a difference. He's been talking about his fears and worries about this winter for weeks on end. He's basically the opposite of snow88. Also overconfidence? Nobody came in here and said a classic end to end cold and snowy winter was on tap. In fact every forecast clearly stated 'what could go wrong' and why one can never guarantee such a scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 ^ where's that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 1, 2014 Author Share Posted December 1, 2014 ^ where's that? He posted in the Rising confidence thread but most of the responses were deleted so I moved in here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 For everyone who wants a cold s snowy winter. My gut tells me we will Still. get it ..but not until early to mid January.. But such is the hobby we have chosen ..for better or worse .( like a marriage ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 Winter's off to an incredible start, it feels great outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 Whatever the winter may bring is, one thing's for certain... it is a veritable deluge of meltwater this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 1, 2014 Author Share Posted December 1, 2014 Definitely over performing warmth today. Many places well into the 60s just south of the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 How's this for a winter? The 2.7" occured in March. Central Park 1918-19 0 0 0 0 0 0.3 0.3 0.5 2.7 T 0 0 3.8 BTW, the following season they had 47.6" These things can change on a dime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 This weather right now sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 This weather right now sucks No it doesnt ant. No snow in sight so id take the warmth over sub freezing temps and sunny. IMO nothing worse than 10-20 degrees and sunny, beautiful day ruined by bone numbing cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 How's this for a winter? The 2.7" occured in March. Central Park 1918-19 0 0 0 0 0 0.3 0.3 0.5 2.7 T 0 0 3.8 BTW, the following season they had 47.6" These things can change on a dime. that's an 01-02, 11-12 redux except the snow came in March and not January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 Not even a fantasy snowstorm on the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 No it doesnt ant. No snow in sight so id take the warmth over sub freezing temps and sunny. IMO nothing worse than 10-20 degrees and sunny, beautiful day ruined by bone numbing cold Yeah, highs in the teens is always a bummer... wasted potential for a subzero daily max. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 Whatever the winter may bring is, one thing's for certain... it is a veritable deluge of meltwater this morning Its melting like crazy out there right now.. We still have a good amount out there. A nice 1-3" followed by some ice should give us in the interior a nice wintry feel for tomorrow into Wednesday. A nice start to winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 1997 1998 incoming - enjoy the warmth before the heart breaking set of perfect track BM storms with 33 and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 I have the feeling this will be an interior winter with heartbreak and near misses for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 1, 2014 Author Share Posted December 1, 2014 1997 1998 incoming - enjoy the warmth before the heart breaking set of perfect track BM storms with 33 and rain. Lol that was like 1 storm..the rest occured with temps in the 40s and 50s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 Its melting like crazy out there right now.. We still have a good amount out there. A nice 1-3" followed by some ice should give us in the interior a nice wintry feel for tomorrow into Wednesday. A nice start to winter! Aye, especially since we were more-or-less resigned to a week or more of boredom. My existing snow is actually almost all gone, sans patches of ripe slush in shady places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 I have the feeling this will be an interior winter with heartbreak and near misses for the coast. Climo being climo. There is a reason why some places 50 miles NW of NYC average more than double what KNYC usually records. It only takes one or two big events to get above average. I'm really liking my call for most of the snow to be confinded to 3 or 4 larger events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 I may be negative but it's not like there's no basis for it. If the winter is like 11-12 then so be it but it'll still be a major letdown given all the forecasts beforehand. I have a feeling the negativity will spread when warm days like today continue deeper into the month and closer to the holidays. We no longer have the it's only November excuse and in a few weeks we won't have the climo excuse either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 I may be negative but it's not like there's no basis for it. If the winter is like 11-12 then so be it but it'll still be a major letdown given all the forecasts beforehand. I have a feeling the negativity will spread when warm days like today continue deeper into the month and closer to the holidays. We no longer have the it's only November excuse and in a few weeks we won't have the climo excuse either. What`s the basis . Which of the physical drivers do you think have broken down for us ? Serious question . Its Dec 1st. Not sure I follow what the basis is . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 I may be negative but it's not like there's no basis for it. If the winter is like 11-12 then so be it but it'll still be a major letdown given all the forecasts beforehand. I have a feeling the negativity will spread when warm days like today continue deeper into the month and closer to the holidays. We no longer have the it's only November excuse and in a few weeks we won't have the climo excuse either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 We are gonna be using that image alot in the next few weeks lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 Stop quoting him damnit, you ruin the point of the ignore function lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 We are gonna be using that image alot in the next few weeks lol.. Yup credit to julian for digging up such a worthy gem for the weenie suicides that are already starting with snoski for december Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 What`s the basis . Which of the physical drivers do you think have broken down for us ? Serious question . Its Dec 1st. Not sure I follow what the basis is . Poor wording but the Euro MJO forecasts arent favorable and the ensembles continue to show positive anomalies. I know the monthly forecast torches us this entire month. The Mets don't look too thrilled to see what's going on towards the Aleutians and apparently it's throwing a monkey wrench into their forecasts as Earthlight stated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 Poor wording but the Euro MJO forecasts arent favorable and the ensembles continue to show positive anomalies. I know the monthly forecast torches us this entire month. The Mets don't look too thrilled to see what's going on towards the Aleutians and apparently it's throwing a monkey wrench into their forecasts as Earthlight stated. EURO hasnt exactly been stellar in the LR as has been noted by paul. Its corrected itself as its gotten closer to the eventual solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 65F under mostly cloudy skies for December 1st, Welcome to Met winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 Poor wording but the Euro MJO forecasts arent favorable and the ensembles continue to show positive anomalies. I know the monthly forecast torches us this entire month. The Mets don't look too thrilled to see what's going on towards the Aleutians and apparently it's throwing a monkey wrench into their forecasts as Earthlight stated. A few things . Its Dec 1 and not Jan 15 . The MJO on the UKMET and the GFS take the MJO around through phase 7 8 . The Euro ensembles do take it into 6 and collapse it but that doesn`t mean the pattern will implode. ( That said we should warm for about 10 days ) . But what`s in betweeen . The difference in the MJO forecasts may be 2 see the Typhoon re curving the Euro does not . Everyone keeps looking at the Euro ensembles for the torch and in the 11 -16 it does .However last week it flooded us with PAC air . Look at the PNA No where on any of the ensembles did you see this look at 500 MB . This is now the new OP day 8 and 9 . LR can change on a dime . Its early and to be honest I am not aware at any EPIC winter forecasts made . Many have said below normal temps with Above normal snow . Not sure if you are expecting 77- 78 temps with 95- 96 amounts but I don`t know if I have seen that opined anywhere . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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