bluewave Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 The AO still isn't being forecast to make a drop to -1.5 or lower from December 1-10. ao.sprd2.jpg One of the early signals for a 6 inch or greater December NYC snowstorm over the years has been a strong AO drop to -1.5 or lower during the December 1-10 period. Several 2000's years such as 2010, 2009, 2002, and 2000 gave this early signal. There were a total of 13 Decembers since 1950 with a 6 inch or greater NYC snowstorm at some point during the month.10 out of those 13 Decembers featured an AO drop to -1.5 or lower during the December 1-10 time frame. The three exceptions were 1957, 1990, and 2003. December 1-10 lowest daily AO and 6 inch or greater NYC December snowstorms since 1950: 1957.....-1.395.......8.0 1959.....-3.191......13.7 1960.....-1.946......15.2 1963.....-1.618......6.6 1966.....-3.095......7.1 1969.....-1.950......6.8 1990.....-0.478.....7.2 1995.....-2.064.....7.7 2000.....-1.677....12.0 2002.....-2.654......6.0 2003.....-0.095.....14.0 2009.....-2.614.....10.9 2010.....-2.306......20.0 While the -1.5 AO drop increases the chances, not all years with the drop produced a 6 inch or greater snowstorm in NYC. 10 out of 31 years with the December AO drop since 1950 produced. Only 3 out of 33 years since 1950 with an AO not dropping to -1.5 had a 6 inch or greater snow storm during December in NYC. December 1-10 since 1950 with no -1.5 daily AO or lower and the greatest snowstorms: 1950...2.9 1951...3.3 1953...T 1954...0.1 1956...0.6 1957...8.0 1962..3.4 1964..2.7 1965..T 1968..5.2 1970..2.1 1971...T 1972...T 1974...T 1975...1.8 1979...3.5 1982...3.0 1983...1.6 1984....4.8 1986...0.6 1988...0.3 1990...7.2 1992...0.4 1993...4.0 1994....T 1998....2.0 1999...T 2003...14.0 2004...2.1 2006...0.0 2007...1.4 2011...0.0 2013...5.0 2014...1.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 The AO still isn't being forecast to make a drop to -1.5 or lower from December 1-10. ao.sprd2.jpg One of the early signals for a 6 inch or greater December NYC snowstorm over the years has been a strong AO drop to -1.5 or lower during the December 1-10 period. Several 2000's years such as 2010, 2009, 2002, and 2000 gave this early signal. There were a total of 13 Decembers since 1950 with a 6 inch or greater NYC snowstorm at some point during the month.10 out of those 13 Decembers featured an AO drop to -1.5 or lower during the December 1-10 time frame. The three exceptions were 1957, 1990, and 2003. December 1-10 lowest daily AO and 6 inch or greater NYC December snowstorms since 1950: 1990.....-0.478.....7.2Only 3 out of 33 years since 1950 with an AO not dropping to -1.5 had a 6 inch or greater snow storm during December in NYC. December 1-10 since 1950 with no -1.5 daily AO or lower and the greatest snowstorms: 1968..5.2 1969 6.8 1990...7.2 2003...14.0 Weren't 1968 and 2003 close to the "needed" AO figure? Wasn't 1969 a changeover or "back and forth" where the cold air, though quite strong, didn't hold? And wasn't 1990 a front-end dump rather than a "classic" storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 Weren't 1968 and 2003 close to the "needed" AO figure? Wasn't 1969 a changeover or "back and forth" where the cold air, though quite strong, didn't hold? And wasn't 1990 a front-end dump rather than a "classic" storm? 1990 was almost all snow with a little sleet/freezing drizzle at the end. Was supposed to be a 1-3 incher but amounts were increased throughout the day and it overperformed. It also completely melted 2 days later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 Weren't 1968 and 2003 close to the "needed" AO figure? Wasn't 1969 a changeover or "back and forth" where the cold air, though quite strong, didn't hold? And wasn't 1990 a front-end dump rather than a "classic" storm? 1969 was a nor'easter, and a good one (day after Christmas). It's actually in the list of years with the lowest daily AO's in the 1st 10 days of December. You may have mis-pasted it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 The AO still isn't being forecast to make a drop to -1.5 or lower from December 1-10. ao.sprd2.jpg One of the early signals for a 6 inch or greater December NYC snowstorm over the years has been a strong AO drop to -1.5 or lower during the December 1-10 period. Several 2000's years such as 2010, 2009, 2002, and 2000 gave this early signal. There were a total of 13 Decembers since 1950 with a 6 inch or greater NYC snowstorm at some point during the month.10 out of those 13 Decembers featured an AO drop to -1.5 or lower during the December 1-10 time frame. The three exceptions were 1957, 1990, and 2003. December 1-10 lowest daily AO and 6 inch or greater NYC December snowstorms since 1950: 1957.....-1.395.......8.0 1959.....-3.191......13.7 1960.....-1.946......15.2 1963.....-1.618......6.6 1966.....-3.095......7.1 1969.....-1.950......6.8 1990.....-0.478.....7.2 1995.....-2.064.....7.7 2000.....-1.677....12.0 2002.....-2.654......6.0 2003.....-0.095.....14.0 2009.....-2.614.....10.9 2010.....-2.306......20.0 While the -1.5 AO drop increases the chances, not all years with the drop produced a 6 inch or greater snowstorm in NYC. 10 out of 31 years with the December AO drop since 1950 produced. Only 3 out of 33 years since 1950 with an AO not dropping to -1.5 had a 6 inch or greater snow storm during December in NYC. December 1-10 since 1950 with no -1.5 daily AO or lower and the greatest snowstorms: 1950...2.9 1951...3.3 1953...T 1954...0.1 1956...0.6 1957...8.0 1962..3.4 1964..2.7 1965..T 1968..5.2 1970..2.1 1971...T 1972...T 1974...T 1975...1.8 1979...3.5 1982...3.0 1983...1.6 1984....4.8 1986...0.6 1988...0.3 1990...7.2 1992...0.4 1993...4.0 1994....T 1998....2.0 1999...T 2003...14.0 2004...2.1 2006...0.0 2007...1.4 2011...0.0 2013...5.0 1950 snowfall was on 12/26...the ao was at its lowest point of the winter...it was the biggest snowfall of the season and also the nine degree low was the coldest temperature of that winter...it took until 12/23/1963 for the first 6" snowfall in NYC that year...it came after a week of below freezing maximums...The October -4 ao low this year is a good sign it will go negative down the road... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 1969 was a nor'easter, and a good one (day after Christmas). It's actually in the list of years with the lowest daily AO's in the 1st 10 days of December. You may have mis-pasted it?I remember it well. On December 26 I was supposed to go skiing. I woke up that morning and looked at the driveway and saw heavily falling snow with lots of blowing and drifting so I knew skiing wasn't happening, at least that day. I turned on WCBS 880 and they said that the cold air had temporarily reinforced but a rain changeover was working its way west from Long Island. By 9:00 a.m. it was raining. It went back to ice pellets in late afternoon. The next morning it was snowing against but my father and I decided to take the day trip skiing. Another 4" or so fell locally. 1990 was almost all snow with a little sleet/freezing drizzle at the end. Was supposed to be a 1-3 incher but amounts were increased throughout the day and it overperformed. It also completely melted 2 days laterIt was almost all snow but the temperatures rose into the 50's shortly after sunset. I also remember that storm quite well. There was an administrative bankruptcy hearing scheduled that day. My boss suggested I get it adjourned. I insisted on going ahead and took the drive out to Westbury. My likely opponent didn't and we would up getting my client relief that he wouldn't have had a prayer of getting in more clement weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 I remember it well. On December 26 I was supposed to go skiing. I woke up that morning and looked at the driveway and saw heavily falling snow with lots of blowing and drifting so I knew skiing wasn't happening, at least that day. I turned on WCBS 880 and they said that the cold air had temporarily reinforced but a rain changeover was working its way west from Long Island. By 9:00 a.m. it was raining. It went back to ice pellets in late afternoon. The next morning it was snowing against but my father and I decided to take the day trip skiing. Another 4" or so fell locally. It was almost all snow but the temperatures rose into the 50's shortly after sunset. I also remember that storm quite well. There was an administrative bankruptcy hearing scheduled that day. My boss suggested I get it adjourned. I insisted on going ahead and took the drive out to Westbury. My likely opponent didn't and we would up getting my client relief that he wouldn't have had a prayer of getting in more clement weather. Ha! It began down here Christmas night in the early evening, woke up around 3am to a roaring wind out of the ENE and heavy snow, only to see it change to freezing rain a few minutes later. Got about 11 inches here. Left to go skiing in the Poconos on the 27th, we got there and it was still snowing, Elk Mountain was actually closed that day due to high winds, with about 30" of new snow. (They were open the next day :-)). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 Ha! It began down here Christmas night in the early evening, woke up around 3am to a roaring wind out of the ENE and heavy snow, only to see it change to freezing rain a few minutes later. Got about 11 inches here. Left to go skiing in the Poconos on the 27th, we got there and it was still snowing, Elk Mountain was actually closed that day due to high winds, with about 30" of new snow. (They were open the next day :-)).Is this storm why they're saying, on the NE sub-forum, that 1969-70 had a lot of what they call "taint" which is basically mixed bag storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 Is this storm why they're saying, on the NE sub-forum, that 1969-70 had a lot of what they call "taint" which is basically mixed bag storms? Probably - it was a coastal hugger, I believe the eastern part of NE changed to rain also. The rest of that winter was not that memorable down here, in fact that was the most snow we got in this area from any kind of coastal storm from then until January of 1978. Tough times for snow lovers, especially after getting used to the winters of the early and middle 60's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 Is this storm why they're saying, on the NE sub-forum, that 1969-70 had a lot of what they call "taint" which is basically mixed bag storms? December 1969 had a couple of cold rain storms in NYC that could have been taint north and east...The 12/25-27/1969 storm started as just over 6" of snow...It changed to rain before dawn and about an inch of rain fell...The storm ended as a half inch of snow and cold temps cemented it...It was on the ground for a month...January 1970 was cold and dry...no big storms...February 1970 had a big thaw and rain storm before a 4" snow and sleet event mid month...March had a few misses with temps to high but it ended with a rain to snow event on Easter Sunday March 29th...4" fell in NYC...A foot near Dobbs Ferry... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 Probably - it was a coastal hugger, I believe the eastern part of NE changed to rain also. The rest of that winter was not that memorable down here, in fact that was the most snow we got in this area from any kind of coastal storm from then until January of 1978. Tough times for snow lovers, especially after getting used to the winters of the early and middle 60's. What about January 1, 1971? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 March had a few misses with temps to high but it ended with a rain to snow event on Easter Sunday March 29th...4" fell in NYC...A foot near Dobbs Ferry... I was actually from Scarsdale and we had about 6" or so. And I'm from Rye Brook. Dobbs is the home of another poster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 What about January 1, 1971? Okay, I remember it snowing New Year's Eve, but for some reason that storm didn't register in my mind as a big one. I did some looking around, and it was a Nor'easter, looks like 6" to 8" generally. So you are correct, and there were other coastal storms with snow as well, just no double digit events in this area (Philly) during that time frame (8 years), as far as I can recall. I'm sure there were at least a couple significant snows (10" or more) in the NYC area that we missed down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 these are the lowest ao Decembers and their lowest daily number... year....Dec AO...Low AO date.....weather 1950....-1.928....-4.353....12/27...2.9" snow and 9 degrees 12/27... 1952....-1.827....-3.766....12/27...3.0" snow 12/31 1961....-1.668....-3.959....12/21...6.2" snow 12/24 1969....-1.836....-3.714....12/30...6.8" 12/27 1976....-2.074....-5.287....12/29...2.0" 12/28 1985....-1.948....-3.783....12/1.....benign 1995....-2.127....-4.353....12/19...7.7" 12/19 1996....-1.721....-3.377....12/30...cold 1/1/97 2000....-2.354....-4.688....12/29...12" snow 12/30 2002....-1.592....-2.757....12/30...5" snow 12/25 2005....-2.104....-3.569....12/5.....1" snow 12/5 2009....-3.413....-5.821....12/21...11" snow 12/20 2010....-2.631....-5.265....12/18...20" snow 12/26 2012....-1.749....-3.902....12/8.....benign Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Okay, I remember it snowing New Year's Eve, but for some reason that storm didn't register in my mind as a big one. I did some looking around, and it was a Nor'easter, looks like 6" to 8" generally. So you are correct, and there were other coastal storms with snow as well, just no double digit events in this area (Philly) during that time frame (8 years), as far as I can recall. I'm sure there were at least a couple significant snows (10" or more) in the NYC area that we missed down here.I don't think there were any 10+ inchers between February 9, 1969 and January 1978. After PD I we had a 15+ year gap, with only Megalopolis of February 1983 in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 The AO is finally looking to go negative during this time frame. Combined with the NAO looking to likewise go negative, the PNA moving to around +1.5 to +2, and the EPO going at least neutral, there are good indications that NYC may be in for at least a SECS EPO/NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Probably - it was a coastal hugger, I believe the eastern part of NE changed to rain also. The rest of that winter was not that memorable down here, in fact that was the most snow we got in this area from any kind of coastal storm from then until January of 1978. Tough times for snow lovers, especially after getting used to the winters of the early and middle 60's.Didn't January 1, 1971 and an early February storm in 1975 produce? Both were coastals. And what about early December 1973? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 December 1969 had a couple of cold rain storms in NYC that could have been taint north and east...The 12/25-27/1969 storm started as just over 6" of snow...It changed to rain before dawn and about an inch of rain fell...The storm ended as a half inch of snow and cold temps cemented it...It was on the ground for a month...January 1970 was cold and dry...no big storms...February 1970 had a big thaw and rain storm before a 4" snow and sleet event mid month...March had a few misses with temps to high but it ended with a rain to snow event on Easter Sunday March 29th...4" fell in NYC...A foot near Dobbs Ferry... That was a fantastic storm for Vermont and parts of the province of Quebec...Montreal set an all time record with about 27 inches of snow from that event...to the east, it was quite an ice storm...in the higher spots, the ice lasted most of that winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 That was a fantastic storm for Vermont and parts of the province of Quebec...Montreal set an all time record with about 27 inches of snow from that event...to the east, it was quite an ice storm...in the higher spots, the ice lasted most of that winter.Didn't Montreal and even Burlington briefly go over to ZR or IP? Wasn't there some taint everywhere esat of the NY/VT border? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Didn't Montreal and even Burlington briefly go over to ZR or IP? Wasn't there some taint everywhere esat of the NY/VT border? My understanding is that the transition from snow to ice was just east of the Green Mountains...Burlington saw 29.7 inches of snow...I do not have the hour by hour observations in front of me to know if they ended as some ice pellets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 My understanding is that the transition from snow to ice was just east of the Green Mountains...Burlington saw 29.7 inches of snow...I do not have the hour by hour observations in front of me to know if they ended as some ice pellets. I think it went back to snow. I just remember reading media reports in the ensuing days, as I was recovering from a twisted knee gotten skiing on December 27. Edited to add that upon checking Weather Underground it appears that KBTV did not have a changeover. Not sure about CYUL though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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