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December 2014 Banter Thread


H2O

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This winter was over before it even got started. Cold November? Kiss of death. You can see the pattern taking shape already. Many cold rain events with weak CAD and lots of clouds. Most of us need more than a marginal set up to get snow. Routine cold here even in Jan isn't enough. It's done and over because we will never get the sustained -NAO even with the +PNA. The storms will be there in the right spot but the cold will not.

Total SN winter 2014-15

DCA: 5

IAD: 10

BWI: 9

And even these numbers are inflated because I love snow and this is the banter thread so I can be a pessimistic lunatic.

B+ troll job. Not bad

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Good lord there's been some doozy posts today.

Too many weenie freak outs over the "crappy" pattern.  PNA is at least going positive. I doubt we are ever going to truly torch. Anyone think we are headed for a week of temps in the 80s for Christmas?  That was like 1983 I think? Now that was a torch. In the words of Aaron Rodgers....Relax.

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Too many weenie freak outs over the "crappy" pattern. PNA is at least going positive. I doubt we are ever going to truly torch. Anyone think we are headed for a week of temps in the 80s for Christmas? That was like 1983 I think? Now that was a torch. In the words of Aaron Rodgers....Relax.

83 was an ice box

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It's about to get really silly in here...two camps will emerge...friendly troll...banter and humor to deal with our less than favorable pattern and then there will be....well...you know...those other guys...hold on tight boys and girls

I still only see 40s low 50s for as far as the eye can see...no torch...I bet by December 15th IAD is -0.2 with an inch of snow

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It's about to get really silly in here...two camps will emerge...friendly troll...banter and humor to deal with our less than favorable pattern and then there will be....well...you know...those other guys...hold on tight boys and girls

I still only see 40s low 50s for as far as the eye can see...no torch...I bet by December 15th IAD is -0.2 with an inch of snow

I pretty much agree, although I could see having a few 60-70 degree days mixed in as well. Its certainly not going to be a very cold period. I still think there is a decent chance we will be transitioning to a colder pattern for the last 10 days of the month. 

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For a storm of that magnitude, it was a pretty late issuance of a Winter Storm Watch-- only ~30 hours before the snow started. And even then, the first watch issued Thursday afternoon had the generic "more than 5 inches" phrasing. Even CWG's "most likely" range as of Thursday late afternoon was 6-12", with 50% chance of less than that. 

 

Yes, the pattern looked great for a long time, but since some models did have that out-to-sea/weak look for awhile, and it *was* the first storm of that caliber since 2003, most forecasters were gun-shy to issue the 12"+ numbers until after seeing the 12Z Thursday runs. Some stayed gun-shy until after the 0Z Friday runs. 

 

Yeah, this is what I remember. The WSW wasn't until the day before and I thought some of the models were OTS.

 

Then for the first of the Feb. blizzards I remember Tony Pann playing it pretty conservative as well. He thought a lot of sleet would mix in especially during the first half of the event. His morning call on the 5th was 12-20. It was quite evident by then that most of us would all see at least 20.

 

This part I remember because I had a lot of the forecast videos for that storm bookmarked for awhile. He said mostly everyone would be under 20 inches and south/east of Baltimore would be mixing in with sleet or even some rain. But he's always conservative (and usually right though). But I remember him saying "After a foot of snow, who counts?" Kinda true lol

 

 

I can understand why forecasters were reluctant.... aside from the reasons you listed, climo was extremely hostile too. Until that storm, I don't think this area had ever recorded a widespread 18"+ storm in December since records began in the late 19th century. It really was an unprecedented storm and probably just as impressive as Feb 6, 2010 when you account for December climo.

 

About the only thing that comes close at BWI is Dec. 17-18, 1932, which was 11.5 inches. In an absolute sense, Feb. 2010 was much more impressive to me, but in terms of "relative to climo", 12/19/09 was more impressive. Like in another 50-75 years or so I think we'll probably see another February like 2010, but I can't say the same thing about storms like 12/19/09 or Palm Sunday 1942.

 

Edit: I forgot to mention Dec. 11-12, 1960, which had 14.1 inches at BWI.

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Meh just think it's a little arrogant at best to call a PHD met a weenie.

Sent from my iPhone

Just because someone spent a great deal of time and research on something they love doesn't mean they're not a weenie. Being a weenie isn't a bad thing.

 

Actually, in a way, it makes them more of a weenie lol...

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Just because someone spent a great deal of time and research on something they love doesn't mean they're not a weenie. Being a weenie isn't a bad thing.

 

Actually, in a way, it makes them more of a weenie lol...

 

Yup.  Nothing wrong with being a weenie.

 

That said, one should look to strike a balance between being a weenie and not being annoying.  All a weenie needs to do is bring something to the table (knowledge, humor, coolness, etc.) and all is forgiven.

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Haloti Ngata going to be suspended for 4 games for Adderall usage. Man, him and Chris Davis got to stop hanging out. This is getting ridiculous. I guess sports for this whole area is brutal outside of the Wizards  :wacko2:

Wtf does a football player need adderall for? Baseball, well yeah kinda conducive to fatigue...or falling asleep. Anyway the Ravens have plenty of depth on the defensive line. Next man up. Wish that could be said for the secondary.

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Shotgun wedding? Interesting time of the year to get hitched, week b4 Xmas and such.

 

 

Not at all -- but when the venue offers itself for free, you plan a quick wedding! (in our case, we planned it in ~5 months). 

 

And besides, I can say I got married during a snowstorm. :)

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oops you are right. I dont have the energy to go back and research it, but we had what I recall to be a torchy week during the end of Dec sometime in the  80s. 1982 had a warm Xmas day, so maybe thats what I am remembering.

 

pretty sure it was '82.  I vividly recall a Christmas Eve as a young kid playing b-ball outside in shorts and sweating up a storm.

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