December 2014 Banter Thread

[snowfan]

It can, yes. Just checked their local forecast and lows are getting down into the 20s/30s. 

Bet it gets pretty cold there in winter at night. Whats the elevation?

[EastCoast NPZ]

But that's not the real issue. The real issue is we're facing a potential pottery curing furnace in north america with no end in sight. I can deal with a seasonal so-so pattern. What appears to be coming down the line is pretty damn ugly. 

 

Yep.  Canada looks to be ablaze, so our "cold" fronts would at best be able to deliver short-lived shots of seasonal air.  Chestnuts will be roasting on the trees here this Christmas.

[Ltrain]

It's December, it should always be punted. Especially if you live in the suck zones like me.

[EastCoast NPZ]

Dec may not average a lot of snow, but it should never be punted.  It has the best sun-angle of any month and it's hard for me to remember a good winter that featured an abysmal Dec.  

[H2O]

because the models are always right

[Kay]

Current anxiety levels:

 

[Ian]

because the models are always right

much more so when it comes to screwing us than giving us snow. 

[Ltrain]

Does anyone have any images of model runs like 3-4 days before the 3 big storms of 2009-2010. I searched everywhere, the CWG posted some SREF runs that I found in an article for the Feb 5-6th storm, but that is all I could find.

[PrinceFrederickWx]

Does anyone have any images of model runs like 3-4 days before the 3 big storms of 2009-2010. I searched everywhere, the CWG posted some SREF runs that I found in an article for the Feb 5-6th storm, but that is all I could find.

 

I don't think the models even had the Dec 2009 storm until like 36 hours before the event. Or if they did, it was OTS.

[H2O]

much more so when it comes to screwing us than giving us snow. 

 

very true.  Hoping for severe outbreaks now with spring coming sooner

[mappy]

did we fast forward to March already? the whining. the canceling. weenies

[AlaskaETC]

Just came back from Fairbanks. Had a blast, plenty of snow to play around in. Kicked my friend's ass in a snowball fight...Alaska is such a different world compared to the lower 48. Amazing area...the air is incredibly stable in the interior.

[MN Transplant]

I don't think the models even had the Dec 2009 storm until like 36 hours before the event. Or if they did, it was OTS.

 

No.  It was well modeled.  Unfortunately most of the images are gone from the old Eastern threads, but you can see the discussion.

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42075-links-to-threads-for-past-events/

 

mitchnick

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Posted 14 December 2009 - 08:46 AM

wow, anyone look at he Euro days 6 & 7 for us

real nice

 

this place is consistent when people don't think they will get snow

 

Ji

Winter 2010-2011 is over

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Posted 12 December 2009 - 03:50 PM

lol ian...this winter is a disgrace

 

 

 

Never gets old

[WxUSAF]

HM talking everyone off the ledge.  I like it. 

[Fozz]

Dec may not average a lot of snow, but it should never be punted. It has the best sun-angle of any month and it's hard for me to remember a good winter that featured an abysmal Dec.

We've had good winters with a terrible January or February... so of course it can happen if a less important month sucks. Like I said the other day, I think December 5, 2002 2003 2005 2007 2009 spoiled a lot of us, not to mention last December's snow blitz in the colder burbs... when your average high is still close to 50, you've got to calm the heck down.

[PrinceFrederickWx]

No.  It was well modeled.  Unfortunately most of the images are gone from the old Eastern threads, but you can see the discussion.

 

 

 

I think I remember Feb. 5-6, 2010 being locked in well in advance, but I always thought Dec. 2009 was sudden. I was mostly on Accuweather forums around that time and didn't follow models that closely (actually... I still don't) so I must be getting confused with a different storm.

 

I don't remember what winter it was (maybe 11/12?) but one time I remember Ji starting a thread that said "d10 Euro" or something and when you opened it it had someone blowing their head off. It got deleted but I thought it was hilarious.

[Fozz]

I think I remember Feb. 5-6, 2010 being locked in well in advance, but I always thought Dec. 2009 was sudden. I was mostly on Accuweather forums around that time and didn't follow models that closely (actually... I still don't) so I must be getting confused with a different storm.

I don't remember what winter it was (maybe 11/12?) but one time I remember Ji starting a thread that said "d10 Euro" or something and when you opened it it had someone blowing their head off. It got deleted but I thought it was hilarious.

December 2009 had a blatant signal... the upper air setup was amazing and the pattern screamed HECS.

The storm itself looked great many days out, but some models lost the storm only to bring it back a day or two later... I don't think the HECS part became obvious until a day or two before, but it was widely expected to be a very good storm for December.

[WxUSAF]

December 2009 had a blatant signal... the upper air setup was amazing and the pattern screamed HECS.

The storm itself looked great many days out, but some models lost the storm only to bring it back a day or two later... I don't think the HECS part became obvious until a day or two before, but it was widely expected to be a very good storm for December.

Yes.  I recall Wes or someone else posting the analogs to the forecast setup and it was laundry list of Mid-Atlantic MECS/HECS. 

[gymengineer]

December 2009 had a blatant signal... the upper air setup was amazing and the pattern screamed HECS.

The storm itself looked great many days out, but some models lost the storm only to bring it back a day or two later... I don't think the HECS part became obvious until a day or two before, but it was widely expected to be a very good storm for December.

For a storm of that magnitude, it was a pretty late issuance of a Winter Storm Watch-- only ~30 hours before the snow started. And even then, the first watch issued Thursday afternoon had the generic "more than 5 inches" phrasing. Even CWG's "most likely" range as of Thursday late afternoon was 6-12", with 50% chance of less than that. 

 

Yes, the pattern looked great for a long time, but since some models did have that out-to-sea/weak look for awhile, and it *was* the first storm of that caliber since 2003, most forecasters were gun-shy to issue the 12"+ numbers until after seeing the 12Z Thursday runs. Some stayed gun-shy until after the 0Z Friday runs. 

[WxUSAF]

Tom Tasselmeyer honking over the JMA's depiction of the storm next week.  Where's Ji with this info?  Also...I'm in.

[nj2va]

Yes. I recall Wes or someone else posting the analogs to the forecast setup and it was laundry list of Mid-Atlantic MECS/HECS. [/quote

That was the first time I started tracking storms and I remember thinking "wow, this is so easy!" How naive was I...

[HighStakes]

For a storm of that magnitude, it was a pretty late issuance of a Winter Storm Watch-- only ~30 hours before the snow started. And even then, the first watch issued Thursday afternoon had the generic "more than 5 inches" phrasing. Even CWG's "most likely" range as of Thursday late afternoon was 6-12", with 50% chance of less than that. 

 

Yes, the pattern looked great for a long time, but since some models did have that out-to-sea/weak look for awhile, and it *was* the first storm of that caliber since 2003, most forecasters were gun-shy to issue the 12"+ numbers until after seeing the 12Z Thursday runs. Some stayed gun-shy until after the 0Z Friday runs. 

I remember it the same way. In fact, despite the great pattern and set up, there was very little mention of the storm on Monday. I specifically recall watching a JB video on Monday morning where he discussed the storm and was convinced it would be a hit ( of course we know he thinks every storm will be a big hit ) even though there wasn't a lot of model support yet and as usual he was laughed at by many. By the next day the models starting coming around however there was always a question how far north the good snows would get. The uncertainty was held by many as late as Friday morning. WBAL was still very vague Friday morning but then when Tom T. came on that evening and his futurecast snowfall map was showing enormous amounts throughout the entire region especially the northern Virginia foothills and Blue Ridge areas. He then went all in and the rest is history.

[nj2va]

I remember it the same way. In fact, despite the great pattern and set up, there was very little mention of the storm on Monday. I specifically recall watching a JB video on Monday morning where he discussed the storm and was convinced it would be a hit ( of course we know he thinks every storm will be a big hit ) even though there wasn't a lot of model support yet and as usual he was laughed at by many. By the next day the models starting coming around however there was always a question how far north the good snows would get. The uncertainty was held by many as late as Friday morning. WBAL was still very vague Friday morning but then when Tom T. came on that evening and his futurecast snowfall map was showing enormous amounts throughout the entire region especially the northern Virginia foothills and Blue Ridge areas. He then went all in and the rest is history.

On Wednesday night, Sue Palka told viewers to ignore the hype online about a big storm. Oops.

[gymengineer]

I remember it the same way. In fact, despite the great pattern and set up, there was very little mention of the storm on Monday. I specifically recall watching a JB video on Monday morning where he discussed the storm and was convinced it would be a hit ( of course we know he thinks every storm will be a big hit ) even though there wasn't a lot of model support yet and as usual he was laughed at by many. By the next day the models starting coming around however there was always a question how far north the good snows would get. The uncertainty was held by many as late as Friday morning. WBAL was still very vague Friday morning but then when Tom T. came on that evening and his futurecast snowfall map was showing enormous amounts throughout the entire region especially the northern Virginia foothills and Blue Ridge areas. He then went all in and the rest is history.

Wait do you mean Thursday evening? Friday evening was the onset of the storm....

[Fozz]

For a storm of that magnitude, it was a pretty late issuance of a Winter Storm Watch-- only ~30 hours before the snow started. And even then, the first watch issued Thursday afternoon had the generic "more than 5 inches" phrasing. Even CWG's "most likely" range as of Thursday late afternoon was 6-12", with 50% chance of less than that.

Yes, the pattern looked great for a long time, but since some models did have that out-to-sea/weak look for awhile, and it *was* the first storm of that caliber since 2003, most forecasters were gun-shy to issue the 12"+ numbers until after seeing the 12Z Thursday runs. Some stayed gun-shy until after the 0Z Friday runs.

I can understand why forecasters were reluctant.... aside from the reasons you listed, climo was extremely hostile too. Until that storm, I don't think this area had ever recorded a widespread 18"+ storm in December since records began in the late 19th century. It really was an unprecedented storm and probably just as impressive as Feb 6, 2010 when you account for December climo.

[HighStakes]

Wait do you mean Thursday evening? Friday evening was the onset of the storm....

Yes it was Friday evening, probably only several hours before the snow started. During the noon news they were still going 6-12 with potential for more. Then during the 5 o'clock broadcast he said most areas would receive 18 plus.

 

Then for the first of the Feb. blizzards I remember Tony Pann playing it pretty conservative as well. He thought a lot of sleet would mix in especially during the first half of the event. His morning call on the 5th was 12-20. It was quite evident by then that most of us would all see at least 20. Pretty sure NWS was going for 16-24 in their Friday morning update.

[dailylurker]

You guys are killing me with this big snow talk. Man, I'm ready for some snow. Seems like it's been forever since we've had a big snow.

[HighStakes]

You guys are killing me with this big snow talk. Man, I'm ready for some snow. Seems like it's been forever since we've had a big snow.

I like all kinds of snow events but there's nothing like the big one's and I mean the truly big one's. That special feeling you get and you can sense something in the air literally and figuratively that you only experience so many times in your life. Storms like 96, 03, 2010, etc. Even going back to 83 and 79 where you know we're going to get crushed although I was little too young in 79 to have any more than some vague recollections as I was only 6 at the time but clearly remember 83. My fear and concern is that we eventually hit a long drought as far as HECS goes. If we are all realistic we have to be aware that there has been a very high number of major storms on the east coast the last 15 years or so. How long can that last before there is a 15 year period of much less activity. We are actually experiencing a rather rare historical period presently. I only can hope it lasts a few more years and we have a HECS or 2 in our near future.

[BristowWx]

This winter was over before it even got started. Cold November? Kiss of death. You can see the pattern taking shape already. Many cold rain events with weak CAD and lots of clouds. Most of us need more than a marginal set up to get snow. Routine cold here even in Jan isn't enough. It's done and over because we will never get the sustained -NAO even with the +PNA. The storms will be there in the right spot but the cold will not.

Total SN winter 2014-15

DCA: 5

IAD: 10

BWI: 9

And even these numbers are inflated because I love snow and this is the banter thread so I can be a pessimistic lunatic.

[Ian]

I'd take it.