mattie g Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 well, people like matt Zing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kay Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 When can we start using the "data not yet sampled or fully sampled" card? Oh yeah...and we could also have the perennial discussion about whether that whole concept is BS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Oh yeah...and we could also have the perennial discussion about whether that whole concept is BS. It is.. unless the sun angle means snow can't stick in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 And I with you. Hold me. Hold me and never let go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 That Telekinetic dude isn't around to troll DT and his Euro now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 I don't want to clog up the Medium/Long range disco with extrapolation of the "unicorns are real" time frame of the 12z GFS, so I'll post here. It's cold after Christmas... really cold. But first it shows a seasonable Christmas day with highs in the upper-30s/low 40s. The coldest day appears to be 12/31/14, with highs in the upper-20s and lows in the low 20s. For some reason the lows don't look too impressive. The coldest lows through the run are only around 20F in the NW 'burbs. I'm not really sure why that is. Anyway, it looks cold, and DCA/IAD/BWI should record their first sub-freezing highs of the season before the new year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 I'm a glass half full person. Looks like we'll almost get snow several times this month. Some Decembers we don't almost get snow at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 I'm a glass half full person. Looks like we'll almost get snow several times this month. Some Decembers we don't almost get snow at all.You'd love living in the city. We almost get snow a lot in the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 I'm a glass half full person. Looks like we'll almost get snow several times this month. Some Decembers we don't almost get snow at all.I hope we almost get a lot of snow this winter. Oh, wait.. that's a normal winter around here lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 I have to fly back on the 21st.. That has to count for something right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 I wonder who like the parallel now. It sure seems to jump around more than the old GFS. I know it verifies better but it jumping around does not inspire confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 This is no way to run the historic winter in the east that I was promised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 I wonder who like the parallel now. It sure seems to jump around more than the old GFS. I know it verifies better but it jumping around does not inspire confidence. Right now I don't like a single model for the next 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 This is no way to run the historic winter in the east that I was promised. Nor was January 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Nor was January 2010 But already being above climo for the season by then made it a tad easier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Right now I don't like a single model for the next 10 days.Not sure you can totally write off the Christmas eve event given its pretty dynamic and looks like an Archambault event but not looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 I don't want to clog up the Medium/Long range disco with extrapolation of the "unicorns are real" time frame of the 12z GFS, so I'll post here. It's cold after Christmas... really cold. But first it shows a seasonable Christmas day with highs in the upper-30s/low 40s. The coldest day appears to be 12/31/14, with highs in the upper-20s and lows in the low 20s. For some reason the lows don't look too impressive. The coldest lows through the run are only around 20F in the NW 'burbs. I'm not really sure why that is. Anyway, it looks cold, and DCA/IAD/BWI should record their first sub-freezing highs of the season before the new year. I should look at the LR GFS more often lol. 18z shows extreme cold in late December. Upper-teens/low 20s for highs, and lows around 10F. Then at hr 384 the cold leaves the area, but another icy blast is coming down from Canada into the Plains. Sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Not sure you can totally write off the Christmas eve event given its pretty dynamic and looks like an Archambault event but not looking good. You know me and I'm not. Very potent setup for sure and we'll get a lot of looks. I could see some stream separation and different timing letting something cool happen. Assuming the gl low exists in some fashion, there's a decent airmass in front of it and behind it. I could envision sne getting hammered with a transfer of some sort too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Right now I don't like a single model for the next 10 days. Agreed. Hard to envision much more than flurries/SHSN with the big Xmas eve storm for us and then signs of a cutter for Boxing Day/27th. Not sure you can totally write off the Christmas eve event given its pretty dynamic and looks like an Archambault event but not looking good. It certainly looks like an Archambault event, but hard to see how it could turn into an all snow event for us. 12z Euro was about as close as I've seen with the main 500mb low digging so far south, but it would need to dig even farther S/E. Windy and cold for Xmas is better than warm and sunny to me though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 How's about we don't start separate "threat" threads going forward? All fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Para gives us about 5 minutes of precip cool story Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 How's about we don't start separate "threat" threads going forward? All fail. I like this idea. Kiss of death. The rule should be no earlier than 72 hours prior to an event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 How's about we don't start separate "threat" threads going forward? All fail. Yeah, if only we didn't start a thread or else the Euro would still be showing a snowstorm threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 How many more runs until we can stick a fork in it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 How many more runs until we can stick a fork in it? About 108 RAP runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 It's still technically fall so....I got nothing. I'm starting to really think most of us won't have a storm this weekend or a white Xmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 You know me and I'm not. Very potent setup for sure and we'll get a lot of looks. I could see some stream separation and different timing letting something cool happen. Assuming the gl low exists in some fashion, there's a decent airmass in front of it and behind it. I could envision sne getting hammered with a transfer of some sort too. Agreed. Hard to envision much more than flurries/SHSN with the big Xmas eve storm for us and then signs of a cutter for Boxing Day/27th. It certainly looks like an Archambault event, but hard to see how it could turn into an all snow event for us. 12z Euro was about as close as I've seen with the main 500mb low digging so far south, but it would need to dig even farther S/E. Windy and cold for Xmas is better than warm and sunny to me though. yeah def a long shot.. i'm trying to be positive here guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 It's still technically fall so....I got nothing. I'm starting to really think most of us won't have a storm this weekend or a white Xmas. eh.. not really. yeah first 10 of march are better than first 10 of dec for snow.. but we have other issues that come to play then quite a bit around here. if nothing else we're at least a few days into winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 0z NAM rolling...and we know NAM is the go to model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Yeah, if only we didn't start a thread or else the Euro would still be showing a snowstorm threat. You know it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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