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December 2014 Banter Thread


H2O

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Not entirely true. Sure, folks from north Philly, the Poconos, etc. really shouldn't be in our storm threads unless they're a met offering analysis. CrazyBlizz lives 10-15 minutes from mapgirl, so there's really no harm in him posting here. Plus, the dude works in Baltimore. We have people in WV and VA that regularly post here that are much further away from the metro areas than he is.

Yeah, but isn't that the 'area' of this forum? I thought WV, central VA was included in the title? To me it doesn't matter, long as it a legit question/ob and not trying to fan the flames. 

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I try to remember not to control other people's expectations...and not to use "we" or "us" when interpreting what a model says...some people are happy with snow tv regardless of what models said leading up...others have varying inches expectations..It is better if we all just said what models are showing and let people decide for themselves whether it is good or bad....of course we are all guilty, myself included, of getting invested one way or another...I do my best to say "DC" instead of "we", but I don't always succeed...unles we have a 6"+ region wide all snow event, not everyone will have the same level of happiness...It doesn't help how many PA people are now posting here and using "we" and "us"

You are usually a great poster Z and do a nice job with reasonable level headed analysis. Do yourself a favor and back of of the Pa posters that read and offer a little in your thread. Mostt in southern pa like myself are in " no mans land" as the Philly forum is a ghost town. While not your fault, this is a forum to discuss and while it has been done so regarding who posts where..at nauseum, we still find ourselves in similar climo with many in the MA forum. Eastern and some others from north of the M/D line enjoy this forum and get good insight from many.

Thanks

Nut.

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You are usually a great poster Z and do a nice job with reasonable level headed analysis. Do yourself a favor and back of of the Pa posters that read and offer a little in your thread. Mostt in southern pa like myself are in " no mans land" as the Philly forum is a ghost town. While not your fault, this is a forum to discuss and while it has been done so regarding who posts where..at nauseum, we still find ourselves in similar climo with many in the MA forum. Eastern and some others from north of the M/D line enjoy this forum and get good insight from many.

Thanks

Nut.

 

fair enough

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You are usually a great poster Z and do a nice job with reasonable level headed analysis. Do yourself a favor and back of of the Pa posters that read and offer a little in your thread. Mostt in southern pa like myself are in " no mans land" as the Philly forum is a ghost town. While not your fault, this is a forum to discuss and while it has been done so regarding who posts where..at nauseum, we still find ourselves in similar climo with many in the MA forum. Eastern and some others from north of the M/D line enjoy this forum and get good insight from many.

Thanks

Nut.

 

I think the Central PA forum technically covers Lancaster county, though I often feel that the area doesn't have much in common with Williamsport or State College, which seem to be discussed a lot more often.

 

Anyone south of the PA turnpike probably has more in common with northern MD than with deep central Pennsylvania, so I think they should be able to stop by this forum once in a while.

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can someone decipher whether DT is for/against the GFS? Hard to tell.

 

I really don't get the notion of being "for" or "against" any guidance.  If a forecast has reason to believe that they shouldn't weight it in their own analysis/forecast, so be it.  These are numerical models producing automated guidance.

 

Does the GFS struggle (suck) at certain types of events?  Of course it does, as do all numerical models.  Is it (or any guidance) "garbage"?  No, and it's lazy and misguided to think/say so.

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I really don't get the notion of being "for" or "against" any guidance.  If a forecast has reason to believe that they shouldn't weight it in their own analysis/forecast, so be it.  These are numerical models producing automated guidance.

 

Does the GFS struggle (suck) at certain types of events?  Of course it does, as do all numerical models.  Is it (or any guidance) "garbage"?  No, and it's lazy and misguided to think/say so.

it's regionally based to some degree too. gfs has seemingly had a poor track record with coastals for a long while comparatively in the long run. i see mets all the time saying the gfs is better than the euro in the central u.s. 

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it's regionally based to some degree too. gfs has seemingly had a poor track record with coastals for a long while comparatively in the long run. i see mets all the time saying the gfs is better than the euro in the central u.s. 

Fair point.  Some would be surprised to find out how heavily the GFS is used over in Europe given the free access, early delivery, and relative skill locally there...

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I think the Central PA forum technically covers Lancaster county, though I often feel that the area doesn't have much in common with Williamsport or State College, which seem to be discussed a lot more often.

 

Anyone south of the PA turnpike probably has more in common with northern MD than with deep central Pennsylvania, so I think they should be able to stop by this forum once in a while.

 

Does central southern PA weather have much in common with the weather in Fredericksburg or Richmond or Harrisonburg...or DC, for that matter?  Should the regional forums be decided by climo, rather than political boundaries?

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Was Philly dead when it was jackpotting every other day last season? Serious question.

well, "dead" is relative...it was definitely dead compared to here and the NY forum...i mean you guys had about a thousand page thread for a half-inch storm earlier this year...while not "dead", it was definitely much slower in the philly forum, though, even when we were jackpotting...when there is nothing big going on (like this year), it is pretty dead by all objective standards...

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