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December 2014 Banter Thread


H2O

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We better make this season a good one then. We need something to hold onto during lean years and by years I mean half decade. 

We do snow well here in my opinion.  Plenty of our top 10 overall snowstorms have happened in the last 36 years or so.  We get the bombs frequent enough to have plenty of fun, but seldom enough that they remain historic events.  And we get plenty of decent storms in between.  We get just the right amount of snow to keep us addicted, but not so much that we overdose, although we did OD in 2009-10. I have a feeling we may do something close to 1996 this winter. 

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We do snow well here in my opinion.  Plenty of our top 10 overall snowstorms have happened in the last 36 years or so.  We get the bombs frequent enough to have plenty of fun, but seldom enough that they remain historic events.  And we get plenty of decent storms in between.  We get just the right amount of snow to keep us addicted, but not so much that we overdose, although we did OD in 2009-10. I have a feeling we may do something close to 1996 this winter. 

 

That's a little far fetched just because of how anomalous that year was, but I think the region could do very well this winter. A solid El Nino (or even just a good southern stream) with great teleconnections/blocking can do wonders for our area, and our area seemed to get that a lot in the 1960s. It just hasn't happened much in recent years, and I think an excess of multi-year La Ninas followed by post-Nina hangover winters has had a big role in screwing us over.

 

If anything, I think we've got a shot of experiencing a typical 1960s winter this year, replete with a white Christmas, -NAO (keeping my fingers crossed on that), and a nice moisture feed that is typical of El Ninos. Of course that will depend on a sustained -NAO/AO, and I'm cautiously optimistic about that working out for us.

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That's a little far fetched just because of how anomalous that year was, but I think the region could do very well this winter. A solid El Nino (or even just a good southern stream) with great teleconnections/blocking can do wonders for our area, and our area seemed to get that a lot in the 1960s. It just hasn't happened much in recent years, and I think an excess of multi-year La Ninas followed by post-Nina hangover winters has had a big role in screwing us over.

 

If anything, I think we've got a shot of experiencing a typical 1960s winter this year, replete with a white Christmas, -NAO (keeping my fingers crossed on that), and a nice moisture feed that is typical of El Ninos. Of course that will depend on a sustained -NAO/AO, and I'm cautiously optimistic about that working out for us.

Yeah it's certainly far fetched and not data driven (hence just a feeling), aside from the fact this is a nino winter.  But in ninos, even the cold dry patterns can produce 3-6" clippers.  Everything tends to be a little juicer in ninos, and given what looks to be a nice +PNA and -AO setting up going into January, I think we have a shot of scoring a KU in the heart of winter this year.  Things seem to be stacked up pretty well in our favor going into prime climo. 

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I'm assuming that anyone west of the fall line is tuning up their snowblower and getting their shovels ready right now.

 

really need to get another shovel. maybe ill send J this week.

 

also, trying to figure out when i should go to the store. I usually go Saturday morning, that would probably be a horrible idea this week

 

and the kiddo's bday party is saturday. mmm, may have to cancel.

 

but ive already ordered the food and cake. ugh. 

 

#snowpeopleproblems

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Hey, you have to remember those who are only two miles from the fall line. We still get screwed more often then not.

 

How well did you do on 12/5/09? Being at 300'+ can often help you out...

 

But for this storm, I think you'd have to go well beyond the fall line to see significant snows if it takes a semi-inland track. I hope I'm wrong but even I'm somewhat concerned about mixing IMBY simply because I'm not west enough.

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I can't remember the last time I saw Wes this excited for a pattern. He didn't even seem this positive last year. 

I'm not sure I'm super positive but the pattern is a good one.  Last year the pattern was good for snow but not big snows. This year,  the pattern is better for a big storm but the Day 11-15 analogs from the eruo ens mean only had 2 storms of the 10 dates unless my memory failed to note another one.  Also, we can have a good pattern and not cash in.  We also need to get lucky.

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How well did you do on 12/5/09? Being at 300'+ can often help you out...

But for this storm, I think you'd have to go well beyond the fall line to see significant snows if it takes a semi-inland track. I hope I'm wrong but even I'm somewhat concerned about mixing IMBY simply because I'm not west enough.

I got really close to three inches, I think it was 2.8/2.9 or so. I'm aware I perform better then many stuck inside the Beltway, but I agree with all of what you said. I'm not convinced I'll see more then white rain, while Winchester gets more then a foot. The trends are helpful though.

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At least the storm is coming on a weekend. Snow chasing is no problem.

I got really close to three inches, I think it was 2.8/2.9 or so. I'm aware I perform better then many stuck inside the Beltway, but I agree with all of what you said. I'm not convinced I'll see more then white rain, while Winchester gets more then a foot. The trends are helpful though.

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