snowfan Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 And in recent decades, we rarely get good snow totals in consecutive seasons. I'm surprised how tough the crowd is in here given how awesome last winter was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 its an inconsistent snow town. we are capable of sizable storms, but we need good patterns. we don't luck into snow very well. We've always been a snow town. We just take 4-6 year snowless breaks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 meh... I don't know if this feast/famine cycle in DC will last forever. There've been other bad decades in the past, followed by better times. I know DCA is way overdue for a 20-30" winter, and I think some day it will happen again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 We better make this season a good one then. We need something to hold onto during lean years and by years I mean half decade. We do snow well here in my opinion. Plenty of our top 10 overall snowstorms have happened in the last 36 years or so. We get the bombs frequent enough to have plenty of fun, but seldom enough that they remain historic events. And we get plenty of decent storms in between. We get just the right amount of snow to keep us addicted, but not so much that we overdose, although we did OD in 2009-10. I have a feeling we may do something close to 1996 this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 OD in 2009/10? Not me.. I remember standing in waist high snow, bumming it wasn't chest high lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 We do snow well here in my opinion. Plenty of our top 10 overall snowstorms have happened in the last 36 years or so. We get the bombs frequent enough to have plenty of fun, but seldom enough that they remain historic events. And we get plenty of decent storms in between. We get just the right amount of snow to keep us addicted, but not so much that we overdose, although we did OD in 2009-10. I have a feeling we may do something close to 1996 this winter. That's a little far fetched just because of how anomalous that year was, but I think the region could do very well this winter. A solid El Nino (or even just a good southern stream) with great teleconnections/blocking can do wonders for our area, and our area seemed to get that a lot in the 1960s. It just hasn't happened much in recent years, and I think an excess of multi-year La Ninas followed by post-Nina hangover winters has had a big role in screwing us over. If anything, I think we've got a shot of experiencing a typical 1960s winter this year, replete with a white Christmas, -NAO (keeping my fingers crossed on that), and a nice moisture feed that is typical of El Ninos. Of course that will depend on a sustained -NAO/AO, and I'm cautiously optimistic about that working out for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 OD in 2009/10? Not me.. I remember standing in waist high snow, bumming it wasn't chest high lol. Obviously, I don't want anyone's lives to be adversely affected by snow. That said, if I can jump off my roof into the snow, there's room for more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 And in recent decades, we rarely get good snow totals in consecutive seasons. I'm surprised how tough the crowd is in here given how awesome last winter was. Those days are over. The tide has turned. A new cycle has begun. Tune up your shovels now before it's too late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 That's a little far fetched just because of how anomalous that year was, but I think the region could do very well this winter. A solid El Nino (or even just a good southern stream) with great teleconnections/blocking can do wonders for our area, and our area seemed to get that a lot in the 1960s. It just hasn't happened much in recent years, and I think an excess of multi-year La Ninas followed by post-Nina hangover winters has had a big role in screwing us over. If anything, I think we've got a shot of experiencing a typical 1960s winter this year, replete with a white Christmas, -NAO (keeping my fingers crossed on that), and a nice moisture feed that is typical of El Ninos. Of course that will depend on a sustained -NAO/AO, and I'm cautiously optimistic about that working out for us. Yeah it's certainly far fetched and not data driven (hence just a feeling), aside from the fact this is a nino winter. But in ninos, even the cold dry patterns can produce 3-6" clippers. Everything tends to be a little juicer in ninos, and given what looks to be a nice +PNA and -AO setting up going into January, I think we have a shot of scoring a KU in the heart of winter this year. Things seem to be stacked up pretty well in our favor going into prime climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Staying up for the Euro till 2am 5 days out from any possible storm is reminding me more and more of 09-10. Plus, I have to be up in 5 hours, so it also reminds me of that as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 15, 2014 Author Share Posted December 15, 2014 today is the day all the models agree on a storm 6 days away. If not, then I will never post again(in the Central forum) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 NY forum said the euro was weak and east :-( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 15, 2014 Author Share Posted December 15, 2014 NY forum said the euro was weak and east :-( Teleconnect is always right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 In other news...man it's dark at 7:13am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 In other news...man it's dark at 7:13am Dark angle is killer this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 I'm assuming that anyone west of the fall line is tuning up their snowblower and getting their shovels ready right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 I'm assuming that anyone west of the fall line is tuning up their snowblower and getting their shovels ready right now. really need to get another shovel. maybe ill send J this week. also, trying to figure out when i should go to the store. I usually go Saturday morning, that would probably be a horrible idea this week and the kiddo's bday party is saturday. mmm, may have to cancel. but ive already ordered the food and cake. ugh. #snowpeopleproblems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 I'm assuming that anyone west of the fall line is tuning up their snowblower and getting their shovels ready right now. Hey, you have to remember those who are only two miles from the fall line. We still get screwed more often then not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 I can't remember the last time I saw Wes this excited for a pattern. He didn't even seem this positive last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Hey, you have to remember those who are only two miles from the fall line. We still get screwed more often then not. How well did you do on 12/5/09? Being at 300'+ can often help you out... But for this storm, I think you'd have to go well beyond the fall line to see significant snows if it takes a semi-inland track. I hope I'm wrong but even I'm somewhat concerned about mixing IMBY simply because I'm not west enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 I can't remember the last time I saw Wes this excited for a pattern. He didn't even seem this positive last year. I'm not sure I'm super positive but the pattern is a good one. Last year the pattern was good for snow but not big snows. This year, the pattern is better for a big storm but the Day 11-15 analogs from the eruo ens mean only had 2 storms of the 10 dates unless my memory failed to note another one. Also, we can have a good pattern and not cash in. We also need to get lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 NY forum said the euro was weak and east :-( Probably is for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 How well did you do on 12/5/09? Being at 300'+ can often help you out... But for this storm, I think you'd have to go well beyond the fall line to see significant snows if it takes a semi-inland track. I hope I'm wrong but even I'm somewhat concerned about mixing IMBY simply because I'm not west enough. I got really close to three inches, I think it was 2.8/2.9 or so. I'm aware I perform better then many stuck inside the Beltway, but I agree with all of what you said. I'm not convinced I'll see more then white rain, while Winchester gets more then a foot. The trends are helpful though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 There is going to be a lot of wailing when the Euro suddenly lurches SE and mostly misses the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 At least the storm is coming on a weekend. Snow chasing is no problem. I got really close to three inches, I think it was 2.8/2.9 or so. I'm aware I perform better then many stuck inside the Beltway, but I agree with all of what you said. I'm not convinced I'll see more then white rain, while Winchester gets more then a foot. The trends are helpful though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 At least the storm is coming on a weekend. Snow chasing is no problem. I'm flattered you think I'm older, but I'm one of those fifteen year olds that hate Ian. I'm just smart enough to do it in my private voodoo room. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Probably is for them. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 You could snow chase in a bike? I'm flattered you think I'm older, but I'm one of those fifteen year olds that hate Ian. I'm just smart enough to do it in my private voodoo room. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 You could snow chase in a bike? Maybe I could suggest a family trip up into the mountains. Or does Mappy want to adopt a 15 year old for a few days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Maybe I could suggest a family trip up into the mountains. Or does Mappy want to adopt a 15 year old for a few days? lol, you can't even bring me booze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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