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December Banter


mackerel_sky

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I miss the days when there was model madness going on we waited until all the pieces of energy for a potential storm were properly sampled/digested into the models BEFORE we completely wrote a potential storm off. Now we preemptively write storms off as far as 10 days out in advance just to cover our bases since we know models are always extremely superior in the LR. :arrowhead:

 

I hate to  :blahblah: like that, but I really just don't get it. I think what grinds my gears more about this is if everyone here on this board had to wait until Feb/March before seeing a major winter storm (4+ inches) I'll willing to bet 9 times out of 10 those who have become frustrated or disappointed so far this winter will be satisfied in the end. You're not gonna care if the seasonal forecasts were wrong about a wall to wall cold, you'll only care that you met or exceeded your snowfall average for the winter and come 2015-16, you will have completely forgotten whatever pipe dream fantasies those seasonal forecasts bestowed/promised upon you.

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I miss the days when there was model madness going on we waited until all the pieces of energy for a potential storm were properly sampled/digested into the models BEFORE we completely wrote a potential storm off. Now we preemptively write storms off as far as 10 days out in advance just to cover our bases since we know models are always extremely superior in the LR. :arrowhead:

 

I hate to  :blahblah: like that, but I really just don't get it. I think what grinds my gears more about this is if everyone here on this board had to wait until Feb/March before seeing a major winter storm (4+ inches) I'll willing to bet 9 times out of 10 those who have become frustrated or disappointed so far this winter will be satisfied in the end. You're not gonna care if the seasonal forecasts were wrong about a wall to wall cold, you'll only care that you met or exceeded your snowfall average for the winter and come 2015-16, you will have completely forgotten whatever pipe dream fantasies those seasonal forecasts bestowed/promised upon you.

The boards seem to be a lot worse in that regard than they used to be. After suffering through the mid-2000's winters, some of these folks have no clue what a truly bad winter is.

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The boards seem to be a lot worse in that regard than they used to be. After suffering through the mid-2000's winters, some of these folks have no clue what a truly bad winter is.

 

I'm guessing those must've been brutal.  The 2004-2008 period was a non-stop disaster.  Fortunately for my sake, I did not live here from 2004-2007 (unfortunately, I missed out on the nice winter of 2004, though). :)

 

I think most people are being overdramatic, though.

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I'm guessing those must've been brutal.  The 2004-2008 period was a non-stop disaster.  Fortunately for my sake, I did not live here from 2004-2007 (unfortunately, I missed out on the nice winter of 2004, though). :)

 

I think most people are being overdramatic, though.

There really wasn't a good winter in NC after 03-04 until 09-10.  There was one isolated icestorm in western NC in december 2005. Other than that, those years were utterly useless winter weather wise.

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The boards seem to be a lot worse in that regard than they used to be. After suffering through the mid-2000's winters, some of these folks have no clue what a truly bad winter is.

no Winter could be worse than 11-12.

Atlanta's last freeze was in the first half of February and March was 10 degrees above normal.

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no Winter could be worse than 11-12.

Atlanta's last freeze was in the first half of February and March was 10 degrees above normal.

It was right after 2 great winters. I almost expected that winter to suck. 3 great winters in a row seems like too much to ask.

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There really wasn't a good winter in NC after 03-04 until 09-10. There was one isolated icestorm in western NC in december 2005. Other than that, those years were utterly useless winter weather wise.

For RDU, and I would guess for everyone else, the 19 year stretch from 1990 to 09 was awful. Had 5 climo or above and 14 awful winters.

I think that's why this winter could be so frustrating, if we skunk this year then all of a sudden that's a 3 of 4 years that would be terrible.

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I miss the days when there was model madness going on we waited until all the pieces of energy for a potential storm were properly sampled/digested into the models BEFORE we completely wrote a potential storm off. Now we preemptively write storms off as far as 10 days out in advance just to cover our bases since we know models are always extremely superior in the LR. :arrowhead:

 

I hate to  :blahblah: like that, but I really just don't get it. I think what grinds my gears more about this is if everyone here on this board had to wait until Feb/March before seeing a major winter storm (4+ inches) I'll willing to bet 9 times out of 10 those who have become frustrated or disappointed so far this winter will be satisfied in the end. You're not gonna care if the seasonal forecasts were wrong about a wall to wall cold, you'll only care that you met or exceeded your snowfall average for the winter and come 2015-16, you will have completely forgotten whatever pipe dream fantasies those seasonal forecasts bestowed/promised upon you.

 

Respectfully, I beg to differ.

 

If 10 or so very respected Mets had said in Oct/Nov - "All indications are for a mild December with little looking good going into 2105", board posters would'a said "OK" and been good with it. In such a situation, with a model pattern like we're seeing now, and with maybe something in late Jan or early Feb on the horizon to possibly celebrate, this place would be lit up with optimism.

 

Flip the coin to where we actually are - 10 or so very respective mets more or less progged general cold and snow, and posters sunk teeth into that. Hasn't happened. So - now there's a whole lot of cold turkey going on, and that is understandable.

 

Not to belittle anyone's early forecasts, but it is important and appropriate to realize why there is such heightened despair. We all got on the cold/snow train. Unfortunately, the engineer never got her rolling out of the yard and down the track (yet).

 

But Hey - it's Christmas, and New Year's is a week away. Good things can happen! Just look back over the past 12 months - hey - we've had some weather to watch and more to come ...

 

Best and again Merry Christmas!!!!

 

And a Happy (snowy) New Year!

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sheee-it, before the 09-10 winter Chattanooga had no snowstorm over 3 inches since March of '93. Were some dark times..

that's pretty hard to believe. I can't imagine a city like Charlotte, which is close to the same latitude as Chattanooga, going 17 years without a snowstorm greater than 3 inches.
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Respectfully, I beg to differ.

If 10 or so very respected Mets had said in Oct/Nov - "All indications are for a mild December with little looking good going into 2105", board posters would'a said "OK" and been good with it. In such a situation, with a model pattern like we're seeing now, and with maybe something in late Jan or early Feb on the horizon to possibly celebrate, this place would be lit up with optimism.

Flip the coin to where we actually are - 10 or so very respective mets more or less progged general cold and snow, and posters sunk teeth into that. Hasn't happened. So - now there's a whole lot of cold turkey going on, and that is understandable.

Not to belittle anyone's early forecasts, but it is important and appropriate to realize why there is such heightened despair. We all got on the cold/snow train. Unfortunately, the engineer never got her rolling out of the yard and down the track (yet).

But Hey - it's Christmas, and New Year's is a week away. Good things can happen! Just look back over the past 12 months - hey - we've had some weather to watch and more to come ...

Best and again Merry Christmas!!!!

And a Happy (snowy) New Year!

Good post! And here's the other thing: there was a lot of wall to wall winter talk and when December looked to turn out warmer, there was this back-peddling like December was never supposed to be cold at all. There has been some moving of the goal posts. And that's ok. You can't cling to a bad forecast. But that, coupled with the models showing these mirage pattern changes that never happen raises the distress level. Anyway, that's 2 cents I won't get back.
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This will be my last post if the day (I know, who cares), but I wanted to say that in spite of models and torches and solar wind and RNAs and sudden strat coolings, it's always a good day when I get to spend some time here in the SE forum. I hope you all had a wonderful Christmas day. Merry Christmas, friends.

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This will be my last post if the day (I know, who cares), but I wanted to say that in spite of models and torches and solar wind and RNAs and sudden strat coolings, it's always a good day when I get to spend some time here in the SE forum. I hope you all had a wonderful Christmas day. Merry Christmas, friends.

 

:thumbsup: Agreed.  Merry Christmas.

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no Winter could be worse than 11-12.

Atlanta's last freeze was in the first half of February and March was 10 degrees above normal.

 

2008-09 was very close to being a snow-less winter had it not of been for the March 2009 snowstorm. 2003-2007 wasn't that spectacular either. The only noteworthy event in between those periods of years was the January 29, 2005 ice storm, but fortunately we were spared any long term crippling effects from that, went from the mid to upper 20s near the tail end of the storm to the following day shooting up to the mid 40s! Oh yeah there was a little snow in February 2004, but that was about it. Nothing really to write home about during those winters.

 

Respectfully, I beg to differ.

 

If 10 or so very respected Mets had said in Oct/Nov - "All indications are for a mild December with little looking good going into 2105", board posters would'a said "OK" and been good with it. In such a situation, with a model pattern like we're seeing now, and with maybe something in late Jan or early Feb on the horizon to possibly celebrate, this place would be lit up with optimism.

 

Flip the coin to where we actually are - 10 or so very respective mets more or less progged general cold and snow, and posters sunk teeth into that. Hasn't happened. So - now there's a whole lot of cold turkey going on, and that is understandable.

 

Not to belittle anyone's early forecasts, but it is important and appropriate to realize why there is such heightened despair. We all got on the cold/snow train. Unfortunately, the engineer never got her rolling out of the yard and down the track (yet).

 

But Hey - it's Christmas, and New Year's is a week away. Good things can happen! Just look back over the past 12 months - hey - we've had some weather to watch and more to come ...

 

Best and again Merry Christmas!!!!

 

And a Happy (snowy) New Year!

 

 

True, there's nothing wrong with believing/being optimistic in what was being forecast by most mets. I was and still am (cautiously) optimistic myself. However, are you saying there was never a part of you that thought while you were buying into the idea that it felt like it was too good to be true? It's not impossible to have the kind of winter where it's cold from beginning to end overall, but it can be very challenging to produce a tall order like that.

 

Bottom line, in my previous post my point was I didn't see why it really even matters whether it's a cold, warm, mild, or seasonable winter. The predictions of a wall to wall cold winter could have happened and we still could get screwed with a snow-less winter. It's possible to have a pattern set up at any time during the winter and produce a winter storm for most of us regardless of what the overall temps have been throughout the winter.

 

As a side note, I don't envy any mets that publish these seasonal outlooks, every year you're always putting your neck out on the line whether it's right or a bust. It's a double edged sword of praise/criticism either way. I say kudos for being willing to research, put them together, and release them in the first place.

 

Oh, and Merry Christmas and a Happy (Snowy) New Year to you too! :snowing:

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