packbacker Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 This winter is going down like a scud missile. Come Jan 1st things will be better :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 I think Cohen sensed the mass panic and threw us a bone... https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation 3-4 weekThe models are consistent in predicting that persistent low pressure in the Barents Kara seas and northwestern Eurasia to split into two and consolidate in the Hudson Bay and East Siberian polar lows (see Figure 4). This is a more favorable for configuration for high latitude blocking and colder temperatures across the NH continents. This pattern or some similar evolution of this pattern is likely to persist into weeks three and four supported by the minor stratospheric warming predicted for week two. Colder temperatures are at first most likely across northern Asia and Central North America but with time the colder air should filter also along the East Coast of the United States and Europe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Come Jan 1st things will be better :-) Can't get any worse. I mean, we're at the threshold of hell as it is... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Please wake me up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Can't get any worse. I mean, we're at the threshold of hell as it is... LOL, today was nice and tomorrow/Sat should be too. Looks like after that we will go back to the unsettled awful crap as the past few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 I think Cohen sensed the mass panic and threw us a bone... https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation 3-4 week The models are consistent in predicting that persistent low pressure in the Barents Kara seas and northwestern Eurasia to split into two and consolidate in the Hudson Bay and East Siberian polar lows (see Figure 4). This is a more favorable for configuration for high latitude blocking and colder temperatures across the NH continents. This pattern or some similar evolution of this pattern is likely to persist into weeks three and four supported by the minor stratospheric warming predicted for week two. Colder temperatures are at first most likely across northern Asia and Central North America but with time the colder air should filter also along the East Coast of the United States and Europe. Cohen is dead to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Cohen is dead to me. He is going to be our savior for this winter, as Cohen goes we go. Long live the SCE/SAI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 I just cancelled my subscription to WxSouth.com Sorry Robert. Not even strong dynamics can bring us cold air this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 An unparalleled, unmitigated disaster is unfolding before our very eyes. Always remember where you were. Stay sharp! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 An unparalleled, unmitigated disaster is unfolding before our very eyes. Always remember where you were. Stay sharp! Yeah, it's hard to imagine a wintery pattern in 3-4 weeks, but it's going to happen....isn't it...I mean it has to. Doesn't it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 An unparalleled, unmitigated disaster is unfolding before our very eyes. Always remember where you were. Stay sharp!Where is Brick? I was trying to save him from disappointment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 think Cohen sensed the mass panic and threw us a bone... https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation 3-4 weekThe models are consistent in predicting that persistent low pressure in the Barents Kara seas and northwestern Eurasia to split into two and consolidate in the Hudson Bay and East Siberian polar lows (see Figure 4). This is a more favorable for configuration for high latitude blocking and colder temperatures across the NH continents. This pattern or some similar evolution of this pattern is likely to persist into weeks three and four supported by the minor stratospheric warming predicted for week two. Colder temperatures are at first most likely across northern Asia and Central North America but with time the colder air should filter also along the East Coast of the United States and Europe. A good pattern is always 3-4 weeks away. Too bad weeks 3 & 4 of the Euro weeklies are a disaster. That gets us through January, basically. Maybe crap will get together in time to have a rockin' March so we can get out very own Snowquester bust to make this winter the worst winter of our lives. First, the good pattern would be here by Christmas. Then by the New Year. Now mid-January... The good news is that I have faith that we can pull together a lucky storm or two, no matter how bad the pattern is. We always get the stars to align at least once. Maybe it'll be just a 1" slush storm, but it'll be something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 25, 2014 Author Share Posted December 25, 2014 I just cancelled my subscription to WxSouth.com Sorry Robert. Not even strong dynamics can bring us cold air this winter. Not even synoptic meteorology can save us! The pattern sucks! I am glad to say I was here and watched the most epic of winters since the 70s fail. It's always good to be apart of history, be it good, or be it dumpster fire! I still think if we had a foot of snow in Feb, it wouldn't ease the pain. This one stings! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 25, 2014 Author Share Posted December 25, 2014 Where is Brick? I was trying to save him from disappointment.He's somewhere protecting his acorns, rocking back and forth in a corner, and breathing in and out of a paperbag Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 I truly feel bad for you folks having to turn the AC on. I can't even wrap my head around that one. Seriously - It is blowing my mind how different my weather is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Not even synoptic meteorology can save us! The pattern sucks! I am glad to say I was here and watched the most epic of winters since the 70s fail. It's always good to be apart of history, be it good, or be it dumpster fire! I still think if we had a foot of snow in Feb, it wouldn't ease the pain. This one stings! To be fair, the last half of January and February, plus March could be rockin' and this could end up being one of the best winters of our life. I mean, we didn't get accumulating snow IMBY until January 21st last year, but still ended with 175% of average snowfall. It could happen. It's just frustrating since this winter was hyped to no end and we're nearing the 1/3rd mark of met winter with just a couple flakes to show for it here and nothing at all south of here. Bevo, the A/C is definitely off now that it's collapsed into the mid-40s. It was in the low 50s earlier and it actually got kind of warm after the low 60s last night, so I turned the A/C on to knock it down to 71 again. It wasn't really necessary, but it was a Christmas gift of A/C. I'm not sure I've ever put the A/C on when the temperatures was in the low-50s, so that's a new one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 To be fair, the last half of January and February, plus March could be rockin' and this could end up being one of the best winters of our life. I mean, we didn't get accumulating snow IMBY until January 21st last year, but still ended with 175% of average snowfall. It could happen. It's just frustrating since this winter was hyped to no end and we're nearing the 1/3rd mark of met winter with just a couple flakes to show for it here and nothing at all south of here. Bevo, the A/C is definitely off now that it's collapsed into the mid-40s. It was in the low 50s earlier and it actually got kind of warm after the low 60s last night, so I turned the A/C on to knock it down to 71 again. It wasn't really necessary, but it was a Christmas gift of A/C. I'm not sure I've ever put the A/C on when the temperatures was in the low-50s, so that's a new one. Yeah - I mean judging from last night's posts there were lots of AC's running yesterday. Crazy. We never had a temp spike like what I saw in OBS. We went from 43 to 50 or so then immediately back down to 42. Today's high was 53 I think. I also saw the sun for what seems like the first time since November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Yeah - I mean judging from last night's posts there were lots of AC's running yesterday. Crazy. We never had a temp spike like what I saw in OBS. We went from 43 to 50 or so then immediately back down to 42. Today's high was 53 I think. It was in the low 40s yesterday morning, then 50 by the evening. Then the southerly winds kicked in and the CAD eroded as we spiked 10 degrees from 7 PM to 8 PM with the temperature skyrocketing from 51 to 61. Looks like it got as high as 63 at 10 PM before falling back into the 50s overnight. I was out eating at the time, and it was shocking to get home and realize how much warmer it was outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlaringSun Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 To be fair, the last half of January and February, plus March could be rockin' and this could end up being one of the best winters of our life. I mean, we didn't get accumulating snow IMBY until January 21st last year, but still ended with 175% of average snowfall. It could happen. It's just frustrating since this winter was hyped to no end and we're nearing the 1/3rd mark of met winter with just a couple flakes to show for it here and nothing at all south of here. True statement. Also, there's still a potential possibility that 3-5 days within the event of a NY snowstorm, the models could completely flip-flop and give us a rockin' snowstorm, which happened in January of this year IIRC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 My A/C requirements. Summer Day: 80 or higher in house. Summer Night 74 or higher in house. Winter day 78 or higher in house. Winter night 75 or higher. Heat requirements Winter Day 65 or lower. Winter night 65 or lower. Summer................I live in Waycross. It's currently 74 but I'm turning on the heat because my house will be 59 in the morning if I don't turn it on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Not even synoptic meteorology can save us! The pattern sucks! I am glad to say I was here and watched the most epic of winters since the 70s fail. It's always good to be apart of history, be it good, or be it dumpster fire! I still think if we had a foot of snow in Feb, it wouldn't ease the pain. This one stings! You said it, mack. It'll be interesting to see future seasonal forecasts after this "winter" regardless of how it ends up. To be fair, the last half of January and February, plus March could be rockin' and this could end up being one of the best winters of our life. I mean, we didn't get accumulating snow IMBY until January 21st last year, but still ended with 175% of average snowfall. It could happen. It's just frustrating since this winter was hyped to no end and we're nearing the 1/3rd mark of met winter with just a couple flakes to show for it here and nothing at all south of here. I'm finally back in the 30s now! Exciting times. It's looking more and more like we'll have to sit our jammin' January out and hope for a fab February. It's almost halftime and we're down big. We gotta chip away the month of January to set up for a potential game changer in February and end with a slam dunk in March! More egg nog! Woo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Cohen is dead to me. CR, Is this post by any chance a nod to Kevin of "Shark Tank"? If so, well done, sir! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thekidcurtis Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Flew from Hawaii (80 and sunny) to LA (60 and overcast) to Denver (30 and snow). Boarding for the way home to Raleigh now. Caught up on all the Pattern Discussion Thread, thought you guys would have brought me something nice for the return! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Alright, after seeing a stronger ridge on the models I am now officially going into hiding from the forums until something shows up, if ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 26, 2014 Author Share Posted December 26, 2014 Alright, after seeing a stronger ridge on the models I am now officially going into hiding from the forums until something shows up, if ever.See you in April for severe season, but that will probably be interrupted by the polar vortex finally dropping down !? Better late than never ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Good lord, reading the medium range discussion was like driving slowly past a trainwreck... Lovely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Ok folks, here comes the dagger on winter. I picked up a gift at the local farmers outlet here in Kernersville and they gave me a 2015 calendar. Now outside of the moon phase info, gestation data for livestock and zodiac calendar, it has the monthly weather printed neatly on each page. Looks similar to Farmers Almanac data but not sure. I carefully read every month through April and did not locate a single flake of snow. Nothing but morerate temps and occassional showers for the rest of this year. Now for those who believe in such prognostications, you will be happy to know that a fast forward to November and December 2015 also shows nada for us southeasterners! So now I feel better knowing I dont have to model watch because there is nothing to be had. Nothing but a big ole southeast ridge. Now that we have that put to bed, enjoy your gardening, golf, hunting and occasional sunbathing. I truly enjoyed my nap on the back deck today.....in central north carolina, in december, 4 days into winter. I'll gladly take two more just like it starting tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 26, 2014 Author Share Posted December 26, 2014 Ok folks, here comes the dagger on winter. I picked up a gift at the local farmers outlet here in Kernersville and they gave me a 2015 calendar. Now outside of the moon phase info, gestation data for livestock and zodiac calendar, it has the monthly weather printed neatly on each page. Looks similar to Farmers Almanac data but not sure. I carefully read every month through April and did not locate a single flake of snow. Nothing but morerate temps and occassional showers for the rest of this year. Now for those who believe in such prognostications, you will be happy to know that a fast forward to November and December 2015 also shows nada for us southeasterners! So now I feel better knowing I dont have to model watch because there is nothing to be had. Nothing but a big ole southeast ridge. Now that we have that put to bed, enjoy your gardening, golf, hunting and occasional sunbathing. I truly enjoyed my nap on the back deck today.....in central north carolina, in december, 4 days into winter. I'll gladly take two more just like it starting tomorrow. The old Farmers Almanac , they basically had -3 to -5 below normal monthly avgs for Nov- Feb, and said it could even be too conservative!! Will be very interesting to watch their recap of this winters prediction in next years publication! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Clearly the bees were right. Not sure why we ignored them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 CR, Is this post by any chance a nod to Kevin of "Shark Tank"? If so, well done, sir! Sorry man, I've only watched that show once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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