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December Banter

mackerel_sky

By mackerel_sky,
in Southeastern States

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

I've been an eternal optimist about this winter based on analogs. However, I am for the first time admittedly growing less confident than I have been. The lack of -AO this month as well as in the forecast is pretty concerning. I had been having a good bit of confidence on a strong -AO averaged out over DJF. The chances of that verifying are beginning to drop. This could end up an absolute disaster for the SAI/OPI. Combined with the model consensus of aiming intense cold toward the SW US on run after run as we start what I've been thinking was the going to be the start of the crucial period, I can't sugarcoat things and say that a solid cold averaged DJF still looks as likely as I had thought though I'm not yet throwing in the towel on that.

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
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I've been an eternal optimist about this winter based on analogs. However, I am for the first time admittedly growing less confident than I have been. The lack of -AO this month as well as in the forecast is pretty concerning. I had been having a good bit of confidence on a strong -AO averaged out over DJF. The chances of that verifying are beginning to drop. This could end up an absolute disaster for the SAI/OPI. Combined with the model consensus of aiming intense cold toward the SW US on run after run as we start what I've been thinking was the going to be the start of the crucial period, I can't sugarcoat things and say that a solid cold averaged DJF still looks as likely as I had thought though I'm not yet throwing in the towel on that.

 

Just curious, you buying any of the "models are wrong", take it week by week?  Things looks very bleak, like I said a few posts above, the lack of snow events doesn't bother me it's the lack of blocking that hasn't developed is the most concerning at this point.  The first 6 weeks of met winter are going to have a good +AO, and there is no end in sight unless the MJO bails us out.

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GaWx

GaWx

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Posted

Just curious, you buying any of the "models are wrong", take it week by week?  Things looks very bleak, like I said a few posts above, the lack of snow events doesn't bother me it's the lack of blocking that hasn't developed is the most concerning at this point.  The first 6 weeks of met winter are going to have a good +AO, and there is no end in sight unless the MJO bails us out.

I'm in limbo right now to be honest. Run after run after run of both the GFS and Euro keep aiming cold air into the SW US and keeping the SE from getting all that cold . It is hard to dismiss the signs that repeated runs are giving. At the same time, I realize we could have another OMG run of the GFS/Euro when we least expect it that aims much of the cold into the SE. Also, I recall how warm the models were for early Nov during late Oct. So, I feel there's room for hope.

Now, the strong +AO domination is the last thing I expected to be in the forecast by the GEFS for early January, which I had been thinking was going to be the start of a solidly cold period. If that AO forecast ends up being close to reality, that would come close to eliminating the chance for a strong -AO averaged over DJF. That would be very disappointing.

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metalicwx366

metalicwx366

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I'm glad to see quite a few of you guys have seen the light and realize that the pattern is crap and until we see some consistent signs of something different expect more pain.

Nah the models are wrong. They don't have a good handle of the Gamma Ray burst that occurred 108 light years away. This will induce a new and improved SSW event in the next 760 hours that will shuffle the current 500mb 180 degrees and produce an OSTJ verisimilitude the one that occurred years ago. One thing you should note is the models always underestimate the OSTJ. Winter is a coming folks.
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packbacker

packbacker

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I'm in limbo right now to be honest. Run after run after run of both the GFS and Euro keep aiming cold air into the SW US and keeping the SE from getting all that cold . It is hard to dismiss the signs that repeated runs are giving. At the same time, I realize we could have another OMG run of the GFS/Euro when we least expect it that aims much of the cold into the SE. Also, I recall how warm the models were for early Nov during late Oct. So, I feel there's room for hope.

Now, the strong +AO domination is the last thing I expected to be in the forecast by the GEFS for early January, which I had been thinking was going to be the start of a solidly cold period. If that AO forecast ends up being close to reality, that would come close to eliminating the chance for a strong -AO averaged over DJF. That would be very disappointing.

I still have hope for the 2nd half of winter. Probably dumb but 78/79 and 79/80 were backloaded winters. Weenie dreams.
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LithiaWx

LithiaWx

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Nah the models are wrong. They don't have a good handle of the Gamma Ray burst that occurred 108 light years away. This will induce a new and improved SSW event in the next 760 hours that will shuffle the current 500mb 180 degrees and produce an OSTJ verisimilitude the one that occurred years ago. One thing you should note is the models always underestimate the OSTJ. Winter is a coming folks.

Lmao

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Jonathan

Jonathan

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Nah the models are wrong. They don't have a good handle of the Gamma Ray burst that occurred 108 light years away. This will induce a new and improved SSW event in the next 760 hours that will shuffle the current 500mb 180 degrees and produce an OSTJ verisimilitude the one that occurred years ago. One thing you should note is the models always underestimate the OSTJ. Winter is a coming folks.

POST OF THE YEAR! lmfao!

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

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Posted

Nah the models are wrong. They don't have a good handle of the Gamma Ray burst that occurred 108 light years away. This will induce a new and improved SSW event in the next 760 hours that will shuffle the current 500mb 180 degrees and produce an OSTJ verisimilitude the one that occurred years ago. One thing you should note is the models always underestimate the OSTJ. Winter is a coming folks.

:clap:

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burgertime

burgertime

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Posted

Nah the models are wrong. They don't have a good handle of the Gamma Ray burst that occurred 108 light years away. This will induce a new and improved SSW event in the next 760 hours that will shuffle the current 500mb 180 degrees and produce an OSTJ verisimilitude the one that occurred years ago. One thing you should note is the models always underestimate the OSTJ. Winter is a coming folks.

:lmao:

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Brick Tamland

Brick Tamland

Posted
Posted

I think it's pretty much a lock to go there for a period of time. The question becomes more about what happens when it finally comes out.

I have always hated the "can't sit there bc of the trough east of Hawaii" talk..........

I keep reading that, too. Is this something people just throw out there or is it a scientific fact?

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burgertime

burgertime

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I keep reading that, too. Is this something people just throw out there or is it a scientific fact?

 

Well it should be acting to help "kick" the shortwave and stop it from cutting off....looking at the PAC charts there is energy out in the pacific but that energy in Cali cutoffs in such a huge way it works as a big blockade and actually shifts the energy that should kick it to the south of it. It isn't till more energy comes into the picture out west that it finally is able to kick it out. 

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Shawn

Shawn

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Well it should be acting to help "kick" the shortwave and stop it from cutting off....looking at the PAC charts there is energy out in the pacific but that energy in Cali cutoffs in such a huge way it works as a big blockade and actually shifts the energy that should kick it to the south of it. It isn't till more energy comes into the picture out west that it finally is able to kick it out. 

 

Could have sworn a couple runs had the energy to actually kick it but it just kinda crashed into it and still left it spinning instead.

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griteater

griteater

Posted
Posted

Raleigh AFD four years ago today...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC255 PM EST SAT DEC 25 2010TONIGHT: THE SURFACE LOW ATTENDING A WELL-DEFINED SOUTHERN STREAM S/W TROUGH ALOFT INVOF NEW ORLEANS WILL CONTINUE ENE TODAY... AND THEN NE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST US COAST... AS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AMPLIFIES AND FURTHER BACKS THE FLOW ALOFT. THE LOW IS ACCORDINGLY EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY... AT WHICH TIME THE DEVELOPING DEFORMATION AXIS ALONG THE GULF COAST EXPANDS AND INTENSIFIES INTO EAST-CENTRAL NC... ROUGHLY FROM RALEIGH EASTWARD. WHILE THE HIGHEST LIQUID EQUIVALENT IS STILL EXPECTED TO FALL IN THE COASTAL PLAIN... SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY ULTIMATELY LIMIT TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION TO AROUND THREE INCHES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE GOLDSBORO AREA... WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS (FOUR TO SIX INCHES AND LOCALLY HIGHER) BACK TOWARD RALEIGH AND POINTS NORTHEASTWARD. ANOTHER COUPLE OF INCHES WILL ALSO LIKELY OCCUR BEFORE THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION AXIS PIVOTS OUT OF THE WESTERN PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S NW TO AROUND FREEZING OR SO TOWARD THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN.  -MWS/BADGETT EXPECT MAJOR WINTER STORM TO BE IN PROGRESS AT BEGINNING OF PERIOD AS DEEPENING OF SURFACE LOW OCCURS JUST OFFSHORE SUNDAY MORNING. CROSS SECTIONS OF MOISTURE AND LIFT SUGGEST BEST POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP WILL OCCUR IN THE MORNING HOURS WITH MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP LIFTING OFF TO THE NE BY AFTERNOON.  WHILE EVENTUAL TRACK OF SURFACE LOW WILL DETERMINE AXIS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW...EASTERN PERIPHERY COUNTIES FROM HALIFAX TO SAMPSON STANDS THE BEST SHOT. IF SURFACE LOW TRACKS CLOSER TO THE  COAST THEN AXIS WILL SHIFT CLOSER TO THE HIGHWAY 1 CORRIDOR. EXPECT TO SEE A SHARP SNOW/NO SNOW OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. POTENTIAL FOR SNOW AMOUNTS WEST OF RALEIGH TO BE OVERDONE BY AN INCH OR TWO. BUT CONSIDERING THE MAJOR SHIFT IN THE MODELS DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...RATHER ERROR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION AND PAINT A WORST CASE SCENARIO. TEMPS OFFERED BY MOS GUIDANCE APPEAR TOO WARM BY A CATEGORY AT LEAST.
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