GaWx Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 I've been an eternal optimist about this winter based on analogs. However, I am for the first time admittedly growing less confident than I have been. The lack of -AO this month as well as in the forecast is pretty concerning. I had been having a good bit of confidence on a strong -AO averaged out over DJF. The chances of that verifying are beginning to drop. This could end up an absolute disaster for the SAI/OPI. Combined with the model consensus of aiming intense cold toward the SW US on run after run as we start what I've been thinking was the going to be the start of the crucial period, I can't sugarcoat things and say that a solid cold averaged DJF still looks as likely as I had thought though I'm not yet throwing in the towel on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 25, 2014 Author Share Posted December 25, 2014 Is '39-'40 off the table now? Analogs are dropping like flies !! I'm sure if 11-12 analog shows up , it will be money!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 I'm glad to see quite a few of you guys have seen the light and realize that the pattern is crap and until we see some consistent signs of something different expect more pain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 I've been an eternal optimist about this winter based on analogs. However, I am for the first time admittedly growing less confident than I have been. The lack of -AO this month as well as in the forecast is pretty concerning. I had been having a good bit of confidence on a strong -AO averaged out over DJF. The chances of that verifying are beginning to drop. This could end up an absolute disaster for the SAI/OPI. Combined with the model consensus of aiming intense cold toward the SW US on run after run as we start what I've been thinking was the going to be the start of the crucial period, I can't sugarcoat things and say that a solid cold averaged DJF still looks as likely as I had thought though I'm not yet throwing in the towel on that. Just curious, you buying any of the "models are wrong", take it week by week? Things looks very bleak, like I said a few posts above, the lack of snow events doesn't bother me it's the lack of blocking that hasn't developed is the most concerning at this point. The first 6 weeks of met winter are going to have a good +AO, and there is no end in sight unless the MJO bails us out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Grit, I don't think Lack is gonna make it haha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 If the cold air comes into the north and west then It's possible we get 1988-1989 as an analog. I'm thinking 2011-2012 may be off the table for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Just curious, you buying any of the "models are wrong", take it week by week? Things looks very bleak, like I said a few posts above, the lack of snow events doesn't bother me it's the lack of blocking that hasn't developed is the most concerning at this point. The first 6 weeks of met winter are going to have a good +AO, and there is no end in sight unless the MJO bails us out. I'm in limbo right now to be honest. Run after run after run of both the GFS and Euro keep aiming cold air into the SW US and keeping the SE from getting all that cold . It is hard to dismiss the signs that repeated runs are giving. At the same time, I realize we could have another OMG run of the GFS/Euro when we least expect it that aims much of the cold into the SE. Also, I recall how warm the models were for early Nov during late Oct. So, I feel there's room for hope. Now, the strong +AO domination is the last thing I expected to be in the forecast by the GEFS for early January, which I had been thinking was going to be the start of a solidly cold period. If that AO forecast ends up being close to reality, that would come close to eliminating the chance for a strong -AO averaged over DJF. That would be very disappointing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 I'm glad to see quite a few of you guys have seen the light and realize that the pattern is crap and until we see some consistent signs of something different expect more pain.Nah the models are wrong. They don't have a good handle of the Gamma Ray burst that occurred 108 light years away. This will induce a new and improved SSW event in the next 760 hours that will shuffle the current 500mb 180 degrees and produce an OSTJ verisimilitude the one that occurred years ago. One thing you should note is the models always underestimate the OSTJ. Winter is a coming folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 I'm in limbo right now to be honest. Run after run after run of both the GFS and Euro keep aiming cold air into the SW US and keeping the SE from getting all that cold . It is hard to dismiss the signs that repeated runs are giving. At the same time, I realize we could have another OMG run of the GFS/Euro when we least expect it that aims much of the cold into the SE. Also, I recall how warm the models were for early Nov during late Oct. So, I feel there's room for hope. Now, the strong +AO domination is the last thing I expected to be in the forecast by the GEFS for early January, which I had been thinking was going to be the start of a solidly cold period. If that AO forecast ends up being close to reality, that would come close to eliminating the chance for a strong -AO averaged over DJF. That would be very disappointing. I still have hope for the 2nd half of winter. Probably dumb but 78/79 and 79/80 were backloaded winters. Weenie dreams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Nah the models are wrong. They don't have a good handle of the Gamma Ray burst that occurred 108 light years away. This will induce a new and improved SSW event in the next 760 hours that will shuffle the current 500mb 180 degrees and produce an OSTJ verisimilitude the one that occurred years ago. One thing you should note is the models always underestimate the OSTJ. Winter is a coming folks. Lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Guess we've got no Christmas spirit thus year since it feels like summer outside. Oh, the hostility! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Nah the models are wrong. They don't have a good handle of the Gamma Ray burst that occurred 108 light years away. This will induce a new and improved SSW event in the next 760 hours that will shuffle the current 500mb 180 degrees and produce an OSTJ verisimilitude the one that occurred years ago. One thing you should note is the models always underestimate the OSTJ. Winter is a coming folks. POST OF THE YEAR! lmfao! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Nah the models are wrong. They don't have a good handle of the Gamma Ray burst that occurred 108 light years away. This will induce a new and improved SSW event in the next 760 hours that will shuffle the current 500mb 180 degrees and produce an OSTJ verisimilitude the one that occurred years ago. One thing you should note is the models always underestimate the OSTJ. Winter is a coming folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Nah the models are wrong. They don't have a good handle of the Gamma Ray burst that occurred 108 light years away. This will induce a new and improved SSW event in the next 760 hours that will shuffle the current 500mb 180 degrees and produce an OSTJ verisimilitude the one that occurred years ago. One thing you should note is the models always underestimate the OSTJ. Winter is a coming folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 OMG. I just had to turn on the A/C. Amazing post by Metallic, BTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 OMG. I just had to turn on the A/C. Amazing post by Metallic, BTW. Get a new spoiler for the Mazda that's got you all hot and bothered? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 I think it's pretty much a lock to go there for a period of time. The question becomes more about what happens when it finally comes out. I have always hated the "can't sit there bc of the trough east of Hawaii" talk.......... I keep reading that, too. Is this something people just throw out there or is it a scientific fact? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 If the 18z are still showing crap energy in the sw too long etc thing run, I official punt until late Jan at earliest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 I keep reading that, too. Is this something people just throw out there or is it a scientific fact? Well it should be acting to help "kick" the shortwave and stop it from cutting off....looking at the PAC charts there is energy out in the pacific but that energy in Cali cutoffs in such a huge way it works as a big blockade and actually shifts the energy that should kick it to the south of it. It isn't till more energy comes into the picture out west that it finally is able to kick it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Well it should be acting to help "kick" the shortwave and stop it from cutting off....looking at the PAC charts there is energy out in the pacific but that energy in Cali cutoffs in such a huge way it works as a big blockade and actually shifts the energy that should kick it to the south of it. It isn't till more energy comes into the picture out west that it finally is able to kick it out. Could have sworn a couple runs had the energy to actually kick it but it just kinda crashed into it and still left it spinning instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 18z is gonna come strong! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 I predict on the 18z energy will kick a little sooner. Pacific looks a little better...but who knows which is I why I'm posting this in banter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 25, 2014 Author Share Posted December 25, 2014 When pattern posts are put into the banter, like Burger said , you know it's really a sad state of affairs! I think we should all unplug and log off for two weeks and just watch the weekly planner at 20 after the hour and kick it old school! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Raleigh AFD four years ago today... AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC255 PM EST SAT DEC 25 2010TONIGHT: THE SURFACE LOW ATTENDING A WELL-DEFINED SOUTHERN STREAM S/W TROUGH ALOFT INVOF NEW ORLEANS WILL CONTINUE ENE TODAY... AND THEN NE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST US COAST... AS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AMPLIFIES AND FURTHER BACKS THE FLOW ALOFT. THE LOW IS ACCORDINGLY EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY... AT WHICH TIME THE DEVELOPING DEFORMATION AXIS ALONG THE GULF COAST EXPANDS AND INTENSIFIES INTO EAST-CENTRAL NC... ROUGHLY FROM RALEIGH EASTWARD. WHILE THE HIGHEST LIQUID EQUIVALENT IS STILL EXPECTED TO FALL IN THE COASTAL PLAIN... SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY ULTIMATELY LIMIT TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION TO AROUND THREE INCHES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE GOLDSBORO AREA... WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS (FOUR TO SIX INCHES AND LOCALLY HIGHER) BACK TOWARD RALEIGH AND POINTS NORTHEASTWARD. ANOTHER COUPLE OF INCHES WILL ALSO LIKELY OCCUR BEFORE THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION AXIS PIVOTS OUT OF THE WESTERN PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S NW TO AROUND FREEZING OR SO TOWARD THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. -MWS/BADGETT EXPECT MAJOR WINTER STORM TO BE IN PROGRESS AT BEGINNING OF PERIOD AS DEEPENING OF SURFACE LOW OCCURS JUST OFFSHORE SUNDAY MORNING. CROSS SECTIONS OF MOISTURE AND LIFT SUGGEST BEST POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP WILL OCCUR IN THE MORNING HOURS WITH MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP LIFTING OFF TO THE NE BY AFTERNOON. WHILE EVENTUAL TRACK OF SURFACE LOW WILL DETERMINE AXIS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW...EASTERN PERIPHERY COUNTIES FROM HALIFAX TO SAMPSON STANDS THE BEST SHOT. IF SURFACE LOW TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST THEN AXIS WILL SHIFT CLOSER TO THE HIGHWAY 1 CORRIDOR. EXPECT TO SEE A SHARP SNOW/NO SNOW OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. POTENTIAL FOR SNOW AMOUNTS WEST OF RALEIGH TO BE OVERDONE BY AN INCH OR TWO. BUT CONSIDERING THE MAJOR SHIFT IN THE MODELS DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...RATHER ERROR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION AND PAINT A WORST CASE SCENARIO. TEMPS OFFERED BY MOS GUIDANCE APPEAR TOO WARM BY A CATEGORY AT LEAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 25, 2014 Author Share Posted December 25, 2014 18z is gonna come strong!Pattern change or ssw at day 12? Which is it today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 I guess we can stop using "when is the nino" pattern going to start.http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino34.png Edit: Maybe we can finally get to the central based nino, enso 4 region is still fairly warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Pattern change or ssw at day 12? Which is it today? Double or nothin'! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 What happened to WebberWeather? GritEater? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 This winter is going down like a scud missile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 What happened to WebberWeather? GritEater? Grit just posted and Webber is probably trying to find some old maps with blue colors over the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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