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December Banter

mackerel_sky

By mackerel_sky,
in Southeastern States

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
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Yeah I understand. Literally if the Euro EPS wasn't that much colder over Hudson bay in one run for the anomaly and fixed the ridge up last night I'd be a tad bit less optimistic but I still can't fold until we really see the hand we are given and unfortunately that won't be for a few days (hopefully).

 

I am just bearish on the next 2-3 weeks, I still think we will get our chances.  Similar to climo years, 2-3 events. 1-2 minor 1-3" events and a shot at a 3-4" event.

 

I am bearish on the blockbuster winter now, I don't see us doing 12"+ winter.  We would need -NAO for that and that seems to impossible to get during a winter month, hasn't occurred in 4 years now.  If we had solid blocking, even if we didn't get snow, I would be much more pumped about this winter, but we are going to go a solid 6 weeks in our winter months without a -AO nor a -NAO.

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
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MikeV's just tweeted this out, modeling for the next 30 days, consistent SE ridge. It's a great pattern for the central US.

I'll give that a solid Meh. All these tweets don't really add a lot of value for me. IMO, that image is no more likely to verify in the long term than all the cold ones he tweeted just a few days ago. If I'm going to be on the fence about a colder pattern setting in a week+ out, I'm certainly not going to go all in on a warm pattern setting in, for the same reasons.
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metalicwx366

metalicwx366

Posted
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You and burger, the eternal optimists. I truly I hope I am wrong and you guys are right, but I don't think we see anything until atleast after the 20th of Jan. Like Brick said we didn't get squat last year until end of January. It's not like I am really going out on a limb here, it's not like the models are spitting out great blocking patterns the next 2 weeks, if they were, I would be more optimistic.

Actually you guys got snow in November last year. There was in event in early to mid January where Raleigh was supposed to get 3+ inches of snow, but got only an inch. I remember Widreman was disappointed at that one. Weather NC was the winner. Speaking of him, where is he?
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burgertime

burgertime

Posted
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You and burger, the eternal optimists.  I truly I hope I am wrong and you guys are right, but I don't think we see anything until atleast after the 20th of Jan.  Like Brick said we didn't get squat last year until end of January.  It's not like I am really going out on a limb here, it's not like the models are spitting out great blocking patterns the next 2 weeks, if they were, I would be more optimistic.

 

It's cause we're both named Jonathan. 

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metalicwx366

metalicwx366

Posted
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At no point last year (Jan/Feb) was the cold consistently dumped in the west. We consistently had ridging in the west (warm west) which meant the mean trough was consistently in the east. We aint getting that for atleast the next 4 weeks .

Lol pack backer. I was only referring to December and I fixed the last sentence in your post.
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burgertime

burgertime

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I'm just confused as to why everyone seems to think this is a horrible terrible pattern. It's not the best but it's not the worst. Models still fluctuating but even today if we can get it as shown it gives us a shot especially in North Carolina. That's all you need is a shot at something. I could understand if it was a big torch pattern and a huge SE ridge but it's not. If anything today should give a little bit of hope that if that ridge can get knocked down and more cold air can filter down we can have something. That is not out of the question and it isn't being overly optimistic to think it could. This is not the perfect pattern...but again it isn't exactly the worst one we can be in. It's hard to remember but for 2011/12 I'm pretty sure the only close threats were past 300 hours and even then they looked like transient cold back to a torchy pattern. 

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
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Actually you guys got snow in November last year. There was in event in early to mid January where Raleigh was supposed to get 3+ inches of snow, but got only an inch. I remember Widreman was disappointed at that one. Weather NC was the winner. Speaking of him, where is he?

 

Not in central NC, we haven't had a 1" snow in Nov in the 20 years I have been here.

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calculus1

calculus1

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Actually you guys got snow in November last year. There was in event in early to mid January where Raleigh was supposed to get 3+ inches of snow, but got only an inch. I remember Widreman was disappointed at that one. Weather NC was the winner. Speaking of him, where is he?

 

I'll echo this question.  Where is WeatherNC?  A moderator that no longer moderates...

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
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I'm just confused as to why everyone seems to think this is a horrible terrible pattern. It's not the best but it's not the worst. Models still fluctuating but even today if we can get it as shown it gives us a shot especially in North Carolina. That's all you need is a shot at something. I could understand if it was a big torch pattern and a huge SE ridge but it's not. If anything today should give a little bit of hope that if that ridge can get knocked down and more cold air can filter down we can have something. That is not out of the question and it isn't being overly optimistic to think it could. This is not the perfect pattern...but again it isn't exactly the worst one we can be in. It's hard to remember but for 2011/12 I'm pretty sure the only close threats were past 300 hours and even then they looked like transient cold back to a torchy pattern. 

 

More power to you, but this is not a winter pattern for the SE, it's just not.  These analogs below are some of the worst winters around here.  91 and 99 we were skunked, not measurable snow those winters, we don't get those very often, once every 15 years for RDU.

 

I hope your right though and I am wrong.  To be honest we all kind of knew our peak climo start latter half of Jan into Feb, so if we get to Jan 20th and the pattern still looks like this, I think then we start to worry.  Until then we can enjoy the snowpack getting built up over the lakes/oh-v the next 2 weeks.  

 

I think week 4 of weeklies give us hope tonight, it will take us to the doorstep of Feb.

post-0-0-55015600-1419534502_thumb.png

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superjames1992

superjames1992

Posted
Posted

Good read from DT, he just posted this a few mins ago...patience until end of Jan is the message.

https://www.facebook.com/WxRisk/posts/793591940688066

Our March pattern is gonna be rockin'. After we get skunked during met winter, this rockin' March will put March 1960 to shame... :yikes:

Seriously, though, good pattern or not, I have faith we'll get lucky and have the stars align before winter's conclusion.

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burgertime

burgertime

Posted
Posted

More power to you, but this is not a winter pattern for the SE, it's just not.  These analogs below are some of the worst winters around here.  91 and 99 we were skunked, not measurable snow those winters, we don't get those very often, once every 15 years for RDU.

 

I hope your right though and I am wrong.  To be honest we all kind of knew our peak climo start latter half of Jan into Feb, so if we get to Jan 20th and the pattern still looks like this, I think then we start to worry.  Until then we can enjoy the snowpack getting built up over the lakes/oh-v the next 2 weeks.  

 

I think week 4 of weeklies give us hope tonight, it will take us to the doorstep of Feb.

 

Last week weren't those analogs showing some of the best winters in history for us? These last two weeks should have taught us one thing. We can only take it one week at a time. That's all I'm saying. We can't jump one way or another really right now until much more consistency shows up. I said it before and I'll say it again. I'm giving it until Sunday to even throw in the towel for next week. Too many big highs dropping down with so much cold air in Canada and too much energy out west.

 

1962 had 11 inches of snow. So again surprises can happen. 

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

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I'm inclined not to necessarily buy those superensemble Pack. Just a few days ago, they were showing epic dates. And DT is a good read, but he doesn't know either any better than he did two weeks ago when he was all aboard the polar express.

My view is that it's at least 7 days before we even get cold. But what happens after that is anybody's guess. It's foolish to think that a change to a colder pattern is imminent. It's also foolish to think that it'll be the end of January.

How the pattern evolves after about a week is not accurately predictable right now. People can trot out plenty of scenarios that show how we could quickly evolve cold. People could trot out a bunch of legitimate ways we could go warm. Either case holds water. I think some of us are nervous, and rightly so, because history has shown us that these delays in getting a colder pattern usually mean it doesn't come anytime soon. I'm still thinking mid Jan, but acknowledge that we could go sooner....or later. Just no way to know. Anyway, bad analog dates don't bother me. We've all seen how the good ones have turned/are turning out.

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted

I'm inclined not to necessarily buy those superensemble Pack. Just a few days ago, they were showing epic dates. And DT is a good read, but he doesn't know either any better than he did two weeks ago when he was all aboard the polar express.

My view is that it's at least 7 days before we even get cold. But what happens after that is anybody's guess. It's foolish to think that a change to a colder pattern is imminent. It's also foolish to think that it'll be the end of January.

How the pattern evolves after about a week is not accurately predictable right now. People can trot out plenty of scenarios that show how we could quickly evolve cold. People could trot out a bunch of legitimate ways we could go warm. Either case holds water. I think some of us are nervous, and rightly so, because history has shown us that these delays in getting a colder pattern usually mean it doesn't come anytime soon. I'm still thinking mid Jan, but acknowledge that we could go sooner....or later. Just no way to know. Anyway, bad analog dates don't bother me. We've all seen how the good ones have turned/are turning out.

 

I vaguely remember some good analog dates but obviously things have trended worse, not better.  Nothing really has gone as planned for this "ideal winter", so I don't see things all of a sudden flipping for us in the next week and we get a -AO/-NAO.  The models have backed off on the SSWE and have the PV strengthening.  I would guess by early Jan we will see the models try to start showing a better patterns for us in the 11-15 only to see it get pushed back, just like it did now.  I remember thinking this flip to a colder pattern started around Dec 20th, and it's going to start a full 7-10 days later.

 

Edit:  To be honest, I wasn't expecting snow events for us by now, or even early January but the lack of a -AO and to some degree a -NAO is what is worrying.

 

+AO with a -PNA is warm for us.

post-2311-0-62072400-1419537108_thumb.pn

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