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December Banter


mackerel_sky

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How do you know this? Farmers Almanac or something?

 

Really?  The AO is going raging positive, the day 8-9 GEFS doesn't look very good.  I am not saying winter cancel, just saying the wintery chances the next couple of weeks isn't going to happen.  Until we get some solid blocking I don't think we will get snow.

 

Last year we did have some blocking with a solid east coast trough.  Compare to what the GEFS is trying sell.

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There are almost no good signs anymore. Winter is done.

 

The OH-V guys were looking at the AAM, high values is what we want for "nino" atmospheric conditions and low values are for nina.  GEFS predicts solidly negative for the next 2 weeks.  Also, the latest 3.4 ENSO reading is 0.5, falling off a cliff.

 

gfs1.png

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To not risk being accused of being too negative, if we can cool Canada down and at least get cold somewhere on this side of the hemisphere, we'll at least be closer to a good pattern. Right now, we're not even in the same universe.

 

LOL at the latest CFS...Nina FTL...

 

The CFS is going to nail Dec temps

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No, it was neutral negative I think. We didn't see SE ridging or ridging in the SE, however you want to it, at any part last winter.

Ok then what's all the garbage about atmospheric memory pertaining to Nina conditions then? The atmosphere needs to remember that big -EPO from last year, if it's going to remember anything at all.

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Ok then what's all the garbage about atmospheric memory pertaining to Nina conditions then? The atmosphere needs to remember that big -EPO from last year, if it's going to remember anything at all.

 

I don't ever remember last year battling higher heights in the SE, even JB this morning said the SE would be battling ridging in the SE or SE ridge, whatever you want to call it.

 

We are going to need blocking to overcome that, I don't see it within the next 2 weeks.  It does look like it could be snowy for the central US up though NE.  We would be on the wrong side of SLP track.  Let's hope end of Jan into Feb we get some blocking.

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Wife is at work. Read over 100 pages of a new book this morning so had to cleanse all the thinking with wx models. Gonna walk the dog next to make up time for the Euro. Personally I'm not to phased to jump to the negative territory. Seems like last year all the same debates were going on with everyone ready to call winter over. GFS didn't look horrible and PARA doesn't either. Like most winters we look for surprises and those tend to come when the pattern is just "so-so". Rarely are we ever locked into a storm or a perfect pattern 8 days out. 

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Wife is at work. Read over 100 pages of a new book this morning so had to cleanse all the thinking with wx models. Gonna walk the dog next to make up time for the Euro. Personally I'm not to phased to jump to the negative territory. Seems like last year all the same debates were going on with everyone ready to call winter over. GFS didn't look horrible and PARA doesn't either. Like most winters we look for surprises and those tend to come when the pattern is just "so-so". Rarely are we ever locked into a storm or a perfect pattern 8 days out. 

 

 

Very true, didn't think the 12z GFS was bad at all and if we can get that energy to move a bit quicker we will be in business.  Too many emotions swinging from run to run over the past few days and many getting upset over the long range.  We just need to watch from run to run and see what happens.  It could be the end of winter or just the beginning.  So much speculation going on has everyone down in the dumps.  If the GFS was showing a huge storm right now for NYD I would be a bit worried because we have seen so many times the models have a great storm at day 7 only to fizzle out and lose it by day 3 over the past few years.  Not saying this will be the case, but some of our best snowstorms in the south have taken till around 5 days before they begin to show on the precip maps.  Winter isn't over yet and won't be for another 2-3 months.

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Why do people keep saying that? There was a SE Ridge last December. It was extremely warm last December.

http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/sercc/Dec13TDeptSERCC.png

I'm in the bullseye.

At no point last year (Jan/Feb) was the cold consistently dumped in the west.  We consistently had ridging in the west (warm west) which meant the mean trough was consistently in the east.  We aint getting that for atleast the next 2 weeks.

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Really? The AO is going raging positive, the day 8-9 GEFS doesn't look very good. I am not saying winter cancel, just saying the wintery chances the next couple of weeks isn't going to happen. Until we get some solid blocking I don't think we will get snow.

Last year we did have some blocking with a solid east coast trough. Compare to what the GEFS is trying sell.

Not sure how anyone can predict how Jan is gonna turn out even the first two weeks with the models the way they are. No set pattern is being seen yet IMO and the closer we get to New Years the more we will get an idea but certainly not 6 days out from

Jan 1st. The AO keeps flipping solutions at least towards neutral unless you're literally looking at the GEFS only, even on the GEFS I think it's been neutral to negative a few runs close to the end of the first week of jan but I'm on my cell....but I know the CMC has been by itself but other runs of other models haven't all been raging +AO. Either way, there's no way anyone can look at the models and lock in even a bad pattern for a couple or a few weeks.

If January is a bust then I'm seriously going to ignore every seasonal model ever next year and just wait for the models to roll Dec 1st. I think be biggest problem is not seeing a for sure snowy pattern for Jan this far out and it's really eating at people, but even the ensembles on the Euro were better last night, haven't looked at today's GEFS yet. Like burger said same exact talk was going on last year so I'm not jumping yet even for the first two weeks of Jan.

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Not sure how anyone can predict how Jan is gonna turn out even the first two weeks with the models the way they are. No set pattern is being seen yet IMO and the closer we get to New Years the more we will get an idea but certainly not 6 days out from

Jan 1st. The AO keeps flipping solutions at least towards neutral unless you're literally looking at the GEFS only, even on the GEFS I think it's been neutral to negative a few runs close to the end of the first week of jan but I'm on my cell....but I know the CMC has been by itself but other runs of other models haven't all been raging +AO. Either way, there's no way anyone can look at the models and lock in even a bad pattern for a couple or a few weeks.

If January is a bust then I'm seriously going to ignore every seasonal model ever next year and just wait for the models to roll Dec 1st. I think be biggest problem is not seeing a for sure snowy pattern for Jan this far out and it's really eating at people, but even the ensembles on the Euro were better last night, haven't looked at today's GEFS yet. Like burger said same exact talk was going on last year so I'm not jumping yet even for the first two weeks of Jan.

 

You and burger, the eternal optimists.  I truly I hope I am wrong and you guys are right, but I don't think we see anything until atleast after the 20th of Jan.  Like Brick said we didn't get squat last year until end of January.  It's not like I am really going out on a limb here, it's not like the models are spitting out great blocking patterns the next 2 weeks, if they were, I would be more optimistic.

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You and burger, the eternal optimists. I truly I hope I am wrong and you guys are right, but I don't think we see anything until atleast after the 20th of Jan. Like Brick said we didn't get squat last year until end of January. It's not like I am really going out on a limb here, it's not like the models are spitting out great blocking patterns the next 2 weeks, if they were, I would be more optimistic.

Yeah I understand. Literally if the Euro EPS wasn't that much colder over Hudson bay in one run for the anomaly and fixed the ridge up last night I'd be a tad bit less optimistic but I still can't fold until we really see the hand we are given and unfortunately that won't be for a few days (hopefully).
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